Oil Rises on Fears of US-Iran Escalation

Crude oil rebounded more than 2% to above $88 a barrel on Wednesday, recovering from a 10-week low driven by persistent tensions in the Middle East and limited progress in peace negotiations. Iran reiterated that it would not surrender any enriched nuclear material, highlighting a key obstacle to talks, while Tehran denied that negotiations with Washington were underway despite President Donald Trump’s suggestion that further US strikes might not be necessary. Meanwhile, Saudi crude production rose 26% in October to 10.56 million barrels per day, its highest level since the war began. In the US, the American Petroleum Institute reported that crude inventories increased by 9 million barrels last week, while distillate stocks gained 1.5 million barrels. Separately, the EIA raised its 2027 forecasts for average US gasoline and diesel prices to $3.73 and $5.03 per gallon, respectively, but maintained its domestic crude production estimate at 14.3 million barrels per day.

Crude oil rose around 1% to near $87 a barrel on Wednesday, recovering from a 10-week low as tensions between the US and Iran remained elevated. Prices gained after Iran’s security chief said Tehran would not allow any enriched nuclear material to leave the country, underscoring a major obstacle to negotiations, as Washington insists nuclear issues must be addressed in initial talks to end the conflict. Despite US officials playing down the need for further military strikes, an Iranian security official denied that any negotiations were underway. Meanwhile, shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz continued to support prices, with 37 vessels attacked in October, the highest monthly total since the war began. A tanker was also struck off Oman, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guards reported that two other tankers caught fire after hitting naval mines. On the supply side, the American Petroleum Institute reported a 9-million-barrel increase in US crude inventories last week.

Crude oil stabilized around $86 per barrel on Wednesday, but stayed close to eleven-week lows on signs of easing tensions between the US and Iran. President Donald Trump suggested that additional military strikes against Iran may no longer be necessary, fueling optimism for a possible diplomatic settlement. Meanwhile, Congressional Democrats are considering leveraging the upcoming government funding deadline to push the Trump administration toward ending the conflict. At the same time, Middle Eastern oil shipments have nearly returned to prewar levels despite ongoing attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. However, uncertainty persists as Iran demands relief from US sanctions and the naval blockade before agreeing to peace talks. The US oil benchmark has fallen almost 20% from its late-October peak, reversing much of its recent gains as hopes for de-escalation strengthened and regional oil exports continued to recover.