Oil Heads for Weekly Loss

Crude oil fell below $83 a barrel on Friday, extending weekly losses to near 5%, as traders increasingly viewed the Iran situation as an economic/sanctions confrontation rather than an imminent threat to physical supply, while improving flows through Hormuz and the proposed Iran–Oman corridor further reduced the perceived supply risk. Goldman Sachs estimated that Persian Gulf oil exports have climbed to around 15–16 million barrels per day, still significantly below pre-conflict volumes of 22–24 million barrels but well above the March low of about 5–6 million barrels. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman agreed on a revenue-sharing framework for the strait, although Tehran emphasized that this does not imply an immediate reopening. Still, the Trump administration reportedly told mediators it does not intend to revive the terms of a preliminary June agreement with Iran that subsequently collapsed.

Crude oil slipped to around $83 per barrel on Friday, paring gains from the previous session as traders continued to monitor developments in the Middle East and efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs said oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels amid increased flows through Hormuz. Total crude exports from the region have reportedly risen to 15-16 million barrels per day, still around 7-8 million barrels below pre-conflict levels but well above a trough of 5-6 million barrels in March. Iran and Oman also reached a revenue-sharing agreement over the strategic waterway, although Tehran stressed that the arrangement does not guarantee an immediate reopening of the strait. Meanwhile, the Trump administration told mediators that it has no interest in returning to the terms of a preliminary deal reached with Iran in June that later collapsed.

Crude oil slipped toward $83 per barrel on Friday, but held most of the gains from the previous session as escalations in the Russia-Ukraine war shifted market attention from the Middle East toward Eastern Europe. Reports indicated that Russian President Vladimir Putin said talks with Ukraine had yielded no results and that Russia was preparing to intensify the war. Ongoing Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and ports are disrupting the country’s energy infrastructure and could constrain its ability to export crude and refined products. Still, oil prices are on track to end the week lower as markets weighed signs of diplomatic progress in the Middle East and improving supply prospects through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s military said it had reached a revenue-sharing agreement with Oman over the strategic waterway, although Tehran stressed that the arrangement does not guarantee an immediate reopening of the strait.