Oil Rises on Middle East Uncertainty

WTI crude futures fell toward $93 per barrel on Thursday, extending a sharp decline from the previous session as investors weighed the prospects for a Middle East peace deal. Reports suggested that the US sent a one-page memorandum of understanding through Pakistani intermediaries aimed at formally ending the conflict and paving the way for the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran is expected to respond within days after confirming it was reviewing the US proposal, although broader negotiations surrounding Iran’s nuclear program are reportedly set to take place later. However, President Trump cautioned that a deal has not yet been finalized and it would be a "big assumption" that Iran would accept the proposal, while threatening to resume military strikes if it fails to comply. Meanwhile, latest data showed US oil exports climbed to a record high last week as countries increasingly turned to American supply amid shortages linked to the conflict.

WTI crude oil futures dropped about 6% to around $96 per barrel on Wednesday, extending a 3.9% decline from the previous session, as hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran increased. Tehran said it is reviewing a US backed proposal to end the two month conflict, with a response expected via Pakistani mediators once a decision is reached. President Donald Trump signaled that a deal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but warned of more intense strikes if Iran fails to comply. Earlier reports indicated Washington had presented a draft framework for ending the war, with markets anticipating a reply within days. Trump also said the US would pause “Project Freedom,” a naval effort to escort vessels through the strait, citing progress in talks. Around 23,000 seafarers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, and despite easing tensions, supply disruptions and high energy costs continue to weigh on global demand, with shipping flows likely to take weeks to normalize.

WTI crude oil futures dropped more than 9% to below $93 per barrel on Wednesday, extending a 3.9% decline from the previous session, after reports that the US and Iran are nearing a deal to end the conflict. According to Axios, US officials believe a preliminary agreement could soon be reached, outlining a framework for broader nuclear talks. President Donald Trump also said the US would temporarily halt “Project Freedom”, a military operation launched to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, citing progress in negotiations. The administration noted that about 23,000 seafarers from 87 countries remain stranded in the Persian Gulf due to the disruption. Despite easing tensions, elevated energy costs have already started to weigh on global demand, and even if the strait reopens, a full recovery in shipping and trade flows is expected to take several weeks.