Crude Oil Retreats Amid Diplomatic Resolution Hopes

WTI crude futures plunged more than 15% to below $95 per barrel on Wednesday after President Donald Trump delayed his threat to attack Iranian civilian infrastructure by two weeks in what he described as a “double-sided ceasefire,” contingent on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump also said the US had received a 10-point proposal from Iran that he described as a “workable basis for negotiations,” with the two-week window allowing the potential agreement to be finalized and implemented. Additionally, Iran has agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks provided all attacks are halted, adding that transit would need to be coordinated with Iran’s Armed Forces, while Israel has also reportedly assented to the temporary ceasefire. The near-closure of the vital waterway, through which about 20% of global oil flows, has roiled energy markets and heightened risks of rising inflation and a global economic slowdown.

WTI crude oil futures retreated from intraday highs to trade below $111 per barrel as traders weighed a potential diplomatic breakthrough ahead of President Trump's 8 p.m. deadline. While prices initially surged following US strikes on Iran's Kharg Island terminal, the rally lost momentum after Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif proposed a two-week extension of the deadline and a temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This Pakistani-brokered mediation effort offered a glimmer of hope for an eleventh-hour deal which prompted some investors to pare back their defensive energy positions. Market participants are also considering the potential for demand destruction as the International Energy Agency warned that the current crisis could be more severe than the shocks of the 1970s.

WTI crude oil futures rose past $113 per barrel as President Donald Trump warned that a whole civilization could die tonight ahead of his 8 p.m. deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This price escalation followed overnight US strikes on military targets at Kharg Island which serves as the primary Iranian oil export hub. Although officials stated that energy infrastructure was not specifically targeted, the direct military action has intensified global supply fears. Meanwhile, reports indicate that Iran has halted negotiation efforts with the US. While tanker traffic through the waterway marginally improved to eight vessels on Monday the current flow remains a mere fraction of the 20 million barrels that transited daily in 2025. Market participants are now pricing in a higher probability of total regime change as the fog of war remains thick across global energy markets.