OPEC+ Plans Q1 Output Freeze Amid Surplus Concerns

WTI crude futures steadied near $91 per barrel on Thursday after a volatile start to the week, as investors looked toward a possible extension of the ceasefire between the US and Iran while weighing prospects for a broader agreement that could end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Reports indicated that Washington and Tehran are mulling an extension to their two-week ceasefire to allow more time to negotiate a peace deal. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with a US naval blockade on Iranian ports still in place, keeping markets on edge over further supply disruptions. Iran also warned it could retaliate against an extended US blockade by suspending shipments across the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea. Markets are now turning their attention to a likely second round of US-Iran talks, expected to center on reopening the strait and Iran’s nuclear enrichment activities.

WTI crude futures swung around $92 per barrel on Wednesday and volatility is expected to persist as traders assess ongoing developments in the Middle East and a steady stream of headlines for signs that the conflict could ease soon and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could resume. The US military said it had fully halted commercial traffic to and from Iranian ports, though shipping data indicated that several Iran-linked vessels continued to transit the strait. Meanwhile, The Washington Post reported that the US Department of Defense plans to deploy an additional 6,000 troops to the region in the coming days, followed by a further 4,200 by the end of the month. Israeli forces also carried out airstrikes on towns in southern Lebanon. These developments come as a second round of talks between the US and Iran is expected in the near term. US President Trump said the conflict is “very close to over,” adding that Iranian authorities appear willing to reach a peace agreement.

WTI crude oil futures traded around $91 per barrel on Wednesday, fluctuating as markets weighed efforts to arrange a second round of US-Iran peace talks against the near-total blockade of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump said discussions could resume within days and suggested the war may be close to ending, even as US forces continue to restrict Iranian exports. Washington’s naval actions have effectively halted maritime trade linked to Iran, while Tehran is reportedly considering limiting shipments to avoid further escalation. The conflict has caused a major supply shock, pushing up fuel costs and weakening demand, with the International Energy Agency forecasting a drop in consumption this year. Analysts expect prices to remain volatile, with any supply recovery likely to be gradual due to logistical constraints. Meanwhile, the API reported that US crude inventories rose by 6.1 million barrels last week, marking the eighth straight build.