OPEC+ Plans Q1 Output Freeze Amid Surplus Concerns

Crude oil climbed above $100 per barrel on Friday, trading near its highest level in five weeks as escalating Houthi attacks on Saudi targets and reports of possible renewed US strikes against Iran raised supply risks in the Middle East. Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen claimed responsibility for recent attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu, along with deadly strikes targeting an oil field and an airport in the world's largest crude oil exporter. Meanwhile, US and Israeli militaries have reportedly drawn up plans for renewed attacks after next month’s midterm elections, with Iran’s energy infrastructure likely to be a key target. Despite escalating regional tensions and threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, crude exports from the Persian Gulf have rebounded close to prewar levels. In Europe, Ukraine intensified its attacks on Russian refineries this week amid a US-Russia agreement involving diesel supplies.

Crude oil rose above $99 a barrel on Thursday, its highest level in more than a month, amid escalating Middle East tensions and reports that the US is planning to resume strikes against Iran. US and Israeli militaries have reportedly drawn up plans for renewed attacks after next month’s midterm elections, with Iran’s energy infrastructure likely to be a key target. The US has also ordered non-emergency government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia following escalating attacks by Iran-allied Houthis. The order came after an attack on King Fahd International Airport in Dammam, on Saudi Arabia’s east coast, on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco has reportedly instructed staff to evacuate its headquarters in Dhahran and work remotely. Aramco facilities have repeatedly come under Houthi attack. The developments increased fears of prolonged disruptions to oil flows from the region.

Crude oil rose above $98 a barrel on Thursday, the highest in five weeks, amid concerns that the Middle East conflict could escalate as the US reportedly prepares to resume strikes against Iran. US and Israeli military officials have developed plans for a renewed campaign following next month’s US midterm elections, with preparations for a short but intensive operation underway. President Donald Trump said Washington was not negotiating with Tehran and suggested that developments could occur soon, potentially after the elections. Meanwhile, the US ordered non-emergency government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia, citing escalating attacks by Iran-aligned Houthis on civilian targets. Despite rising tensions, crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz have moved closer to pre-conflict levels, with some tankers reportedly disabling tracking systems to avoid detection. However, refined oil product shipments remain constrained.