OPEC+ Plans Q1 Output Freeze Amid Surplus Concerns

Crude oil fell below $81 per barrel on Tuesday, marking a third consecutive session of losses after President Donald Trump said the US was engaged in "good talks" with Iran aimed at ending the Middle East conflict, fueling optimism that normal oil flows from the region could resume. Trump reportedly said he chose to suspend strikes on Iran to give negotiations another chance. The US quietly halted attacks on the Islamic Republic late Friday following nearly two weeks of fighting, while Tehran also ceased retaliatory strikes against US bases in neighboring countries. Meanwhile, Iranian and Omani negotiators met over the weekend in an effort to secure an agreement to restore shipping through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. Elsewhere, supply conditions also improved as crude exports resumed at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on Russia's Black Sea coast, a major outlet for Kazakh oil that had recently been disrupted by Ukrainian drone attacks.

Crude oil extended losses and fell toward $82 per barrel on Monday, its lowest level in a week, as optimism grew that the conflict in the Middle East could soon ease. President Trump said the US was holding "good talks" with Iran and that there was a chance of reaching a deal, but warned that US strikes would resume if negotiations failed. The US paused its military strikes on Iran on Friday, following nearly two weeks of hostilities and Tehran said it had suspended its retaliatory military operations in response and entered talks with Oman regarding navigation through Hormuz. Supply conditions also improved after crude loadings resumed at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on Russia's Black Sea coast, a key export route for Kazakh oil that had recently been disrupted by Ukrainian drone attacks. Meanwhile, Houthi militants claimed to have targeted Saudi Aramco-linked facilities in Jizan and Yanbu, although neither the Saudi government nor Aramco confirmed it.

Crude oil fell sharply to as low as $82.11 per barrel on Monday before trimming some losses to trade around $83.40, as signs of easing geopolitical tensions reduced concerns over supply disruptions. The US paused its attacks against Iran, while Tehran said it had halted its retaliatory military strikes in response and engaged in talks with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Supply conditions also improved after crude loadings resumed at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on Russia's Black Sea coast, a key export hub for Kazakh oil that had recently been disrupted by Ukrainian drone attacks. Despite Monday's decline, oil remains up more than 20% this month as supply disruptions expanded from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, an increasingly important alternative route for Saudi Arabian crude exports. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militants claimed to have targeted Saudi Aramco-linked facilities in Jizan and Yanbu, although neither Saudi Arabia nor Aramco confirmed the attacks.