Corn Hits 4-week Low

Corn futures hovered around $4.30 per bushel, struggling to extend a late-January rebound as mounting South American supply risks clash with a massive global surplus. In Brazil, the pivotal 'Safrinha' second-crop planting has reached 50% of the Center-South area, well behind last year’s 64% pace, as erratic rainfall threatens the yield of a crop securing 75% of national output. While Argentina’s crop ratings improved to 51%, production forecasts remain tempered at 57 million metric tons due to heat stress and 'leafhopper' infestations in late-planted fields. Support from a resilient US ethanol sector, steady at 1.1 million barrels per day, provides a structural floor; however, a 'wall of corn' in US silos keeps the ceiling firm, with ending stocks at a six-year high of 2.3 billion bushels. This bearish weight is magnified by the new 15% global tariff, which has bolstered the US Dollar and handed a decisive pricing advantage to Ukrainian and Brazilian exporters.

Corn decreased to 424.00 USd/BU, the lowest since January 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Corn gained 0.14%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 14.8%.

Corn futures hovered around $4.30 per bushel, struggling to build on their late January rebound after the February WASDE confirmed that demand is improving but still insufficient to materially tighten supply. USDA lifted US exports by 100 million bushels to 3.3 billion as January sales and inspections remained firm, trimming ending stocks to 2.1 billion bushels, yet that carryout still implies a comfortable supply buffer relative to consumption. Globally, total coarse grain production remains near 1.59 billion tons, while global corn stocks, though reduced by 1.9 million tons to 289 million, remain ample as higher inventories in Ukraine and Iran offset tighter balances elsewhere. As a result, incremental gains in export and feed demand are being absorbed by sheer supply rather than translating into sustained price pressure. Expectations of another large Brazilian crop and only marginal supply adjustments abroad further point to intense export competition.