Copper Slips as Dollar Rebounds

Copper futures fell to around $5.8 per pound on Thursday, giving back gains from the previous session as the dollar strengthened amid heightened uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict. The US-Israeli campaign against Iran has now entered its sixth day, keeping markets cautious about further escalation and the risk of a prolonged confrontation. Reports also indicated that Iranian operatives had reached out to the US to explore possible peace talks, though Tehran later denied the outreach. In top consumer China, the government set a softer economic growth target of 4.5%–5% as policymakers grapple with persistent deflationary pressures and higher US tariffs. The country’s 15th Five-Year Plan also outlined increased investments in innovation, high-tech industries, and scientific research, alongside measures to boost household consumption as a share of overall economic output.

Copper futures rose toward $5.9 per pound on Wednesday, ending a two-day decline and following a rebound across the broader metals market as investors monitored developments in the Middle East. The US-Israeli war on Iran entered its fifth day, with US President Donald Trump expressing concern that the strikes could bring a new Iranian leadership as troubling as the previous regime, highlighting the conflict’s uncertain trajectory. Earlier this week, copper had been pressured as the Middle East tensions boosted the US dollar and raised risks to global manufacturing demand. Traders also scaled back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, now anticipating the next reduction in September instead of July. Meanwhile, investors awaited policy guidance from China’s ongoing “Two Sessions” gathering.

Copper futures in the US fell to below $5.75 per pound on Tuesday, tracking pressure for base metals after a one-month high of $6 on February 27th as the war in Iran triggered a surge for the US dollar and developed risks to global manufacturing demand. Iran and US allies continued to exchange strikes that followed from the weekend, with Iranian forces striking key energy infrastructure in the Middle East and threatening to attack any vessel or tanker crossing the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint. The developments triggered surges in global energy prices, raising the dollar due to a likely hawkish response from the Federal Reserve in addition to a pivot towards safety. The surging energy costs also risk a pullback in manufacturing that hurts base metal demand. Still, prices remained relatively close to their record high of $6.2 touched in the end of January as bullish speculative demand coincides with tight supply. Signals of incoming stimulus from the Chinese government also aided demand.