Arabica Coffee Futures at Over 2-Month Lows

Arabica coffee futures traded around $2.8 per pound, their lowest level since June, pressured by the strong pace of shipments from Brazil’s recently harvested crop and prospects for greater availability next year. Brazilian green coffee exports remained strong in early September, following a record high for the month of August, with shipments of the bean increasing by more than 50%, according to data from Secex. Meanwhile, Climatempo reported that the main Arabica-producing region of Minas Gerais received 59.4 mm of rain (1,212% of the historical average) last week, a bearish factor that strongly favors the initial development of the next crop. Still, inventories remain low at 27-year lows and the supply outlook is still vulnerable to climate risks. In particular, a strong El Niño and related changes in rainfall and temperatures across the country could interfere with key stages of the coffee plant’s cycle, including flowering, fruit set, bean filling and uniform ripening.

Arabica coffee futures extended their decline to around $2.9 per pound, hovering near the lowest since June, as the completion of Brazil’s harvest brings greater availability to the market. The country is heading for a record coffee crop in 2026, benefiting from a strong biennial cycle, expanded production areas and favorable weather. Moreover, Brazilian coffee exports surged 45% over a year ago in August. However, the balance between global supply and demand remains tight and vulnerable to climate risks. ICE arabica coffee inventories continued to fall and reached a 27-year low of 223,712 bags by September 3. Meanwhile, the onset of El Niño in the equatorial Pacific is putting Brazil’s 2027 coffee crop under closer scrutiny. The associated changes in rainfall and temperature patterns in different regions of the country could interfere with crucial stages of the coffee plant's cycle, such as flowering, as well as affecting fruit set, bean filling, and the uniformity of ripening.

Arabica coffee futures eased toward $3 per pound, reaching their lowest since late June, pressured by expectations of higher output from top producer Brazil. The 2026/27 coffee harvest was 97% complete by August 26, according to Safras & Mercado, with Arabica at 96% and the country on track for a potentially record crop..Rabobank echoed the favorable supply outlook, saying it still expects a “very comfortable” global coffee balance in 2026/27, with a surplus of 8.9 million bags. However, it noted that delays in Brazil and earthquake-related problems in Colombia are keeping stocks tight, with significant replenishment unlikely before November.. Arabica coffee stocks monitored by ICE continued to fall, reaching 223,976 bags by August 31, the lowest level in 27 years. Meanwhile, next year’s harvest remained in focus, with the outlook clouded by erratic weather and the risk of a strong El Niño potentially delaying critical rainfall during the September-October flowering period.