Arabica Coffee Futures at Over 2-Month Lows

2026-09-16 09:43 By Luisa Carvalho 1 min. read

Arabica coffee futures fell below $2.75 per pound, their lowest level since June, pressured by the strong pace of shipments from Brazil’s recently harvested crop and prospects for greater availability next year.

Brazilian green coffee exports remained strong in early September, following a record high for the month of August, with shipments of the bean increasing by more than 50%, according to data from Secex.

Meanwhile, Climatempo reported that the main Arabica-producing region of Minas Gerais received 59.4 mm of rain (1,212% of the historical average) last week, a bearish factor that strongly favors the initial development of the next crop.

Still, inventories remain low at 27-year lows and the supply outlook is still vulnerable to climate risks.

In particular, a strong El Niño and related changes in rainfall and temperatures across the country could interfere with key stages of the coffee plant’s cycle, including flowering, fruit set, bean filling and uniform ripening.



News Stream
Coffee Hits 4-week Low
Coffee decreased to 283.50 USd/Lbs, the lowest since October 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Coffee lost 2.32%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 27.56%.
2026-10-29
Arabica Coffee Futures at Over 2-Week Low
Arabica coffee futures traded around $2.9 per pound, their lowest since October 9, amid improving supply prospects and continued selling pressure linked to the Brazilian real. The currency has recovered some ground since its sharp post-election decline following Lula’s surprise re-election. but remained below pre-election levels. Meanwhile, attention remains focused on the development of Brazil’s next crop and the replenishment of global stocks. Recent rainfall has supported flowering and early crop development, improving production prospects, although concerns over irregular precipitation and high temperatures persist. Export figures have also pointed to stronger supply flows, with Brazilian coffee shipments reaching approximately 3.30 million bags by October 22, up 43.2% from the same period a year earlier, according to Cecafé. Certified Arabica stocks remain historically low, which recently raised concerns about deliveries of the nearest contracts.
2026-10-27
Arabica Futures Slip
Arabica coffee futures dropped over 3% to trade slightly below $3 per pound, their lowest since mid-October, pressured by a weaker Brazilian real following the presidential election results and expectations of improved supply. The real’s depreciation makes coffee exports more attractive to local producers by increasing their returns in local-currency terms, potentially boosting global supply. Meanwhile, traders monitored Brazilian export volumes and weather conditions ahead of the next harvest. Brazilian coffee shipments reached approximately 3.30 million bags by October 22, up 43.2% from the same period a year earlier, according to Cecafé. The increase in shipments comes as Rabobank sees the potential for a recovery in global coffee stocks in the coming cycles, due to favorable weather conditions in the main producing regions. ICE-certified arabica stocks have declined over the past month and remain only moderately above their 27-year low at around 240,000 bags.
2026-10-26