Arabica Coffee Dips After Rally, Risks Remain

Arabica coffee futures eased to near $2.9 per pound, the lowest in over two weeks, pressured by expectations of increased global supply, especially from top producer Brazil. The start of the harvest in the coming weeks is expected to gradually increase the availability of coffee in the physical market, which reinforces seasonal pressure on prices. On Thursday, Marex Group Plc projected a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 75.9 million bags, surpassing last week’s forecast from Sucafina of 75.4 million bags, and representing a 15.5% year-on-year increase. Earlier this month, StoneX also raised its Brazil 2026/27 production estimate to a record 75.3 million bags, up from 70.7 million bags in November. At the same time, certified Arabica stocks have picked up recently, though still below historical norms, providing some relief to near-term supply pressures. Meanwhile, the market remains alert as Middle East tensions push oil prices higher, boosting transportation and operational costs.

Arabica coffee futures rose further to around $3.2 per pound, the highest level since early February, due to signs of tightening short-term supply in top grower Brazil and ongoing external risks. A report by Cooxupé, Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative, estimated that exports would fall 10% in 2026 to around 4.4 million bags, down from 4.9 million in 2025. This short-term reduction in supply is a direct consequence of the smaller 2025 harvest, putting pressure on export volumes in the first half of 2026, although the outlook for the new harvest remains optimistic. At the same time, dealers noted that farmers continue to hold back sales in anticipation of higher prices, limiting availability. Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over global trade flows, including risks to logistics routes and rising transportation costs, are providing additional support and helping sustain elevated prices.

Coffee increased to 302.15 USd/Lbs, the highest since February 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Coffee gained 5.39%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 23.17%.