Arabica Coffee Futures Hit 8-Month Peak

Arabica coffee futures rose to near $2.9 per pound, their highest level since mid-September, mainly on short covering following weeks of downward pressure. Still, gains remain capped by expectations of ample Brazilian supplies, with the country on track for a record 2026 crop and higher export flows adding to global availability. Brazil’s 2026 harvest is now almost complete, and Conab recently raised its production estimate to 67.6 million bags from 66.7 million previously, marking a 19.6% increase from the 2025 crop. Arabica production is expected to account for most of the increase, reaching 48.2 million bags, up 34.8% yoy, more than offsetting lower Robusta output. Recent weather conditions have also been favorable for the development of the next crop, although El Niño risks remain under close watch. Meanwhile, reports that additional Brazilian Arabica shipments are being prepared for certification at ICE warehouses could help replenish depleted inventories.

Arabica coffee futures traded below $2.80 per pound, near their lowest since June, amid signs of increased global supply and more favorable prospects for Brazil's next crop. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) recently projected that global output in 2025/26 will have grown 4.4% yoy to a record 183.6 million bags, while consumption is estimated to have fallen 0.9% to 180.6 million, leaving a surplus of around 3 million bags, the first in five years. Brazilian supply is also picking up, with coffee exports up 31% yoy to a record 4.155 million bags in August. Large volumes of Brazilian Arabica are also heading to ICE warehouses, which could help replenish low inventories. Meanwhile, recent rains in Brazil’s main producing regions have improved soil moisture during a crucial period for flowering and development of the 2027/28 crop. However, the outlook remains weather-dependent, particularly from December to March, when rainfall will be key for fruit development and final yields.

Coffee decreased to 281.40 USd/Lbs, the lowest since June 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Coffee lost 11.33%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 24.96%.