Cocoa Futures Fall

Cocoa futures eased to below $6,300 per tonne, extending their retreat from recent one-year highs, on profit-booking and signs of improving supplies. Latest data showed Ivory Coast farmers shipped 2.14 MMT of cocoa to ports through August 30, 19% more than a year earlier. The country also plans to boost processing capacity to 1.3 MMT in 2026/27 from 650,000 MT. Meanwhile, ICE inventories climbed to a two-year high of 3,411,776 bags as of September 1. Still, concerns over West African cocoa supply persisted as heavy rainfall and high humidity increased disease risks and weakened pod development, threatening production from both the current and next crops. A strong El Niño could delay the rains and extend dry spells across major West African producers, with stronger Harmattan winds placing additional stress on crops.

Cocoa futures traded around $6,600 per tonne, holding close to their highest since September 2025, amid mounting concerns over West African supply. The current crop is facing quality concerns in top producers Ivory Coast and Ghana, where cloudy weather and limited sunshine have favored the spread of black pod disease, while a prolonged dry spell followed by floods and strong winds has damaged young cocoa pods and swept away some trees. The outlook for the next season is more uncertain due to excessive wetness, disease and limited access to chemicals, with risks potentially compounded by an unusually strong El Niño. Production forecasts for major growers have been lowered, with Ivory Coast’s output expected to fall by about 20% to 1.75 million tonnes and Ghana’s to decline 13% to 650,000 tonnes next season. Elsewhere, farmers in Cameroon are struggling with shortages of chemicals to control pests and diseases, while floods have disrupted cocoa farming in Nigeria.

Cocoa futures jumped above $6,200 per tonne, reaching the highest since July 9, as traders reassessed supply prospects for the 2026/27 West African crop. Expectations of lower production are raising the prospect of a tighter market following the substantial global surplus recorded in 2025/26. Harvest forecasts for the Ivory Coast and Ghana, the two largest producers in West Africa, have already been revised substantially lower amid weather risks. The timing of new-crop supplies is also becoming a concern. Both countries have brought forward the official start of the 2026/27 season by one month to September 1, but it does not imply an immediate increase in physical supplies. In Ivory Coast, the main crop is expected to get off to a slow start, with significant arrivals potentially delayed for several weeks. The outlook is further clouded by rising El Niño risks, which could disrupt weather patterns and reduce cocoa production in key growing regions.