Cocoa Futures at 1-Month High

2026-06-16 16:51 By Luisa Carvalho 1 min. read

Cocoa futures traded above $4,200 per tonne, the highest since mid-May, as traders focused on increasing risks from El Niño affecting upcoming harvests.

Dealers said the market has been supported by indications that the 2026/27 main crops in the key producing region of West Africa may be significantly below this season.

partly due to weather-related risks.

StoneX recently reduced its forecast for the global cocoa surplus in the 2026/27 season to 149,000 tons, compared to the 267,000 tons projected in January.

The revision was largely due to growing concerns about the potential impact of El Niño on cocoa production in West Africa.

At the same time, It also cut the 2025/26 surplus estimate to 247,000 tons from a previous 287,000 tons.

A similar trend was seen in ICCO’s projections, which at the end of May revised its 2024/25 surplus estimate down from 75,000 tons to 48,000 tons.

.Meanwhile, volumes stored in US ports grew by another 5,678 bags, reaching 2,923,471 bags.



News Stream
Cocoa Futures at 1-Month High
Cocoa futures traded above $4,200 per tonne, the highest since mid-May, as traders focused on increasing risks from El Niño affecting upcoming harvests. Dealers said the market has been supported by indications that the 2026/27 main crops in the key producing region of West Africa may be significantly below this season. partly due to weather-related risks. StoneX recently reduced its forecast for the global cocoa surplus in the 2026/27 season to 149,000 tons, compared to the 267,000 tons projected in January. The revision was largely due to growing concerns about the potential impact of El Niño on cocoa production in West Africa. At the same time, It also cut the 2025/26 surplus estimate to 247,000 tons from a previous 287,000 tons. A similar trend was seen in ICCO’s projections, which at the end of May revised its 2024/25 surplus estimate down from 75,000 tons to 48,000 tons. .Meanwhile, volumes stored in US ports grew by another 5,678 bags, reaching 2,923,471 bags.
2026-06-16
Cocoa Futures at Over 1-Month Low
Cocoa futures traded around $3,700 per tonne, the lowest level since early May, amid rising inventories and positive supply prospects for the current season. Latest data showed ICE cocoa stocks rising to a 1.75-year high of 2,929,074 bags. Also, dealers pointed to strong arrivals in Ivory Coast during the current 2025/26 season and a broadly favorable outlook for the remainder of the mid-crop, supported by above-average rainfall across key producing regions, which improved soil moisture and tree development. However, the outlook for 2026/27 is less favorable, with early surveys pointing to smaller crops in both Ivory Coast and Ghana. The El Niño phenomenon remains a key risk, as it can bring heat and drought to West Africa and has been linked to major production declines in 2016 and 2024.
2026-06-11
Cocoa Futures Hover Around $4,000
Cocoa futures have been trading around $4,000 per tonne since mid-May, as the market weighed lingering weather-related risks against improving supply prospects. Market participants remain focused on the possible impacts of the El Niño phenomenon, as it could hurt cocoa crops in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which produce more than 60% of the world's cocoa. On the other hand, prospects for a recovery in African cocoa production in 2025/26 are limiting further price gains. Farmers in Ivory Coast reported rainfall was mainly below average last week in most of the country's cocoa growing regions but it was sufficient to boost the size and quality of the March-to-August mid-crop. At the same time, there were signs of increased global inventories. Latest data showed ICE cocoa inventories rose further to a near two-year high of 2,846,957 bags by May 29.
2026-06-01