Cocoa Futures Rise to 2-Month Highs

Cocoa futures rose above $3,500 per tonne, reaching the highest since mid-February, supported by a weaker US dollar and spillover effects from lingering geopolitical tensions. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz weighs on the cocoa market by disrupting fertilizer supply chains and increasing global shipping rates, insurance premiums, and fuel costs, thereby raising production and import expenses. However, market fundamentals remained pressured by ample West African supply expectations and subdued demand. Latest data showed ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 19.5-month high of 2,610,453 bags by April 13. At the same time, cocoa arrivals at ports in top grower Ivory Coast rose 0.7% to 1.462 million metric tons as of April 12, since the start of the season on October 1. Attention turns to the release of first-quarter grinding data across Europe, Asia, and North America, due on April 16, expected to signal weak global demand.

Cocoa increased to 3391.00 USD/T, the highest since March 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Cocoa lost 0.93%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 57.58%.

Cocoa futures traded in a narrow range around $3,200 per tonne, close to June 2023 lows, as market fundamentals continued to be shaped by expectations of abundant supply and subdued demand. Latest data showed ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 19.5-month high of 2,540,983 bags by April 10, reinforcing the perception of comfortable short-term availability. Meanwhile, farmers in top grower Ivory Coast said the March-to-August 2026 cocoa mid-crop is developing well, supported by a mix of recent rains and sunny spells in most growing regions. They expected a good mid-crop that would be concentrated between May and July, but warned that more rains were needed to hep the crop to reach its maximum potential. The market is now focused on the upcoming release of first-quarter grinding figures on April 16, covering data from Europe, Asia, and North America. The prevailing expectation is for weaker performance, reflecting the fragility of global demand for cocoa derivatives.