Cocoa Futures at Over 2-Year Lows

2026-02-02 12:47 By Luisa Carvalho 1 min. read

Cocoa prices eased to below $4,000 per tonne, reaching levels last seen in November 2023, mainly pressured by the prospect of another global surplus and ongoing inventory replenishment.

Consulting firm StoneX projected a global surplus of 287,000 tons for the 2025/26 crop year and 267,000 tons for 2026/27, signaling a consistent reversal of the tight market conditions observed in previous cycles.

In line with this assessment, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) recently reported that 2024/25 global cocoa stocks rose 4.2% y/y to 1.1 MMT.

According to the latest data from the physical market monitored by ICE, certified stocks at US ports rose by 4,121 bags to 1,775,219 bags, reinforcing the view of a gradual recovery in available supply.

In the meantime, concerns over subdued demand persisted.

Weak demand indicated by recent cocoa grinding data was reflected in Barry Callebaut’s below-forecast first-quarter cocoa product sales.



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