Cocoa Futures Set for Sharp Yearly Drop

2025-12-30 15:05 By Luisa Carvalho 1 min. read

Cocoa futures eased to below $5,900 per tonne, down from an over two-week high of $6,242 hit on December 29, which was driven mainly by technical factors and data showing a slowdown in port arrivals in the top grower Ivory Coast.

Meanwhile, the market remained focused on the return of cocoa to the Bloomberg Commodity Index from January 2026, after an absence of two decades.

Prices are set to drop more than 50% this year amid expectations of a partial recovery in global supply, helped by favorable weather in West Africa, particularly in the Ivory Coast.

This is despite recent downward revisions of the global surplus by Citigroup and Rabobank, indicating a less ample supply than initially anticipated.

In the meantime, several major producers, including Hershey, Mondelez, and Barry Callebaut, have reported weaker chocolate demand.

Looking ahead, prices are anticipated to remain volatile yet trend lower in 2026, driven by a recovery in West African plantations and stronger global stocks.



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