Cocoa Hits 21-month Low

Cocoa decreased 5% to 4205.78 USD/T

Cocoa futures rose further to breach $4,400 per tonne, the highest level since late January, fueled by fund short covering and growing supply risks. While weather conditions in West Africa, particularly in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, have recently improved, supporting short-term output and allowing for a gradual rebuilding of global stocks, the outlook remains uncertain. Irregular rainfall during the key mid-crop season continues to pose risks, especially if dry spells persist and affect yields and bean quality in the latter stages of the harvest. Moreover, fertilizer shortages and the rising likelihood of the El Niño phenomenon are expected to constrain 2026/27 production, with farmers in top grower Ivory Coast already reporting difficulties securing inputs amid cash constraints. Reflecting this, StoneX has lowered its global cocoa surplus forecasts for both 2025/26 and 2026/27, signaling tighter supply conditions. On the demand side, conditions remain subdued.

Cocoa increased to 3717.00 USD/T, the highest since February 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Cocoa gained 13.9%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 57.42%.