Cocoa Futures Fall to Year-Low on Higher Prices, Weak Demand

Cocoa futures traded around $3,300 per tonne in early April, consolidating after fund short covering at the end of March. Prices remain near August 2023 lows, as market fundamentals remained underpinned by expectations of abundant supply and weak demand. Favourable weather in key producer Ivory Coast has lifted the outlook for the March-August mid-crop harvest, with above-average rainfall last week supporting expectations of a longer and stronger season. At the same time, certified stocks monitored by ICE continue their upward trajectory, rising to an 8.25-month high of 2,362,668 bags by March 31. Meanwhile, market attention is shifting to Q1 grind data for Europe and North America due on April 16 for insights into demand. The consensus among market participants is that the figures should confirm the fragility of global demand, reflecting the prolonged impact of high prices throughout 2024 and the consequent adjustment in consumption by the industry.

Cocoa futures traded around $3,100 per tonne, holding close to the lowest since May 2023, as market fundamentals remained pressured by expectations of a bumper West African crop. Weather conditions in the key producer Ivory Coast have been supporting a more positive outlook for the mid-crop cocoa harvest, which runs from March to August. Last week, rainfall volumes above the historical average were recorded across much of the country’s main producing regions, raising expectations for a longer and more productive harvest. Ample supplies are also weighing on cocoa prices, as ICE cocoa inventories rose to an 8-month high of 2,357,294 bags by March 27. Meanwhile, dealers noted that weak demand remains a concern, with the market awaiting Q1 European and North American grinding data, scheduled for release on April 16.

Cocoa futures traded around $3,100 per tonne, near the lowest since May 2023, pressured by expectations of a record harvest in West Africa and rising stockpiles. Reports from producers in Ivory Coast and Ghana indicate that frequent rains in the main producing regions have contributed to the good formation of pods, reinforcing the prospect of a comfortable supply in the short and medium term. At the same time, certified stocks monitored by ICE at US ports continued to increase, reaching a 7.5-month high of 2,335,682 bags by March 23. Global cocoa reserves are expanding as plentiful harvests coincide with sluggish consumption, limiting the potential for a sustained short-term price recovery. Meanwhile, market participants remained cautious about logistics risks linked to the Iran war.