Coal Gains on Middle East Disruptions

Coal prices fell to around $140 per ton, hitting over two-month lows as crude oil and LNG prices dropped sharply amid growing optimism that efforts to end the US-Iran conflict could gain momentum. The decline followed a Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections, which could limit military spending in the Middle East. President Donald Trump acknowledged that the war contributed to Republican defeats, while stating that there were no immediate plans to intensify attacks on Iran. Coal had previously climbed to multi-year highs as elevated LNG prices linked to the Middle East conflict encouraged greater reliance on coal-fired power generation. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency projected in September that global coal demand would reach a record level this year, despite continued efforts to transition toward cleaner energy sources and the closure of numerous coal-fired power plants across Europe and North America.

Coal increased to 152.45 USD/T, the highest since October 2024. Over the past 4 weeks, Coal gained 2.63%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 38.06%.

Coal futures traded around $150 per ton, hovering near a three-year high as elevated LNG prices, driven by supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict, continued to encourage a shift toward coal-fired power generation. With coal costing roughly 80% less than LNG, buyers in Asia and Europe have increased imports ahead of the winter season. The International Energy Agency also projected in September that global coal demand would reach a record high this year, despite ongoing efforts to transition to cleaner energy sources and the closure of numerous coal-fired power plants across Europe and North America. Meanwhile, Indonesia, the world’s leading coal exporter, tightened export restrictions, contributing to a 23% drop in shipments in August. The IEA expects Indonesian coal production to decline by more than 12 million tons this year, citing lower production quotas and policy uncertainty.