Coal Stabilizes on Firm Demand Outlook

Futures of thermal coal shipments out of Australia were above $135 per tonne in April, maintaining most of the surge from March as the outbreak of war in the Middle East triggered shortages in energy commodities, favoring coal alternatives. The war in the Persian Gulf drove Iranian forces to strike tankers carrying liquified natural gas and liquified petroleum gas crossing the Hormuz chokepoint. Supply from the region was further dented as major natural gas processing facilities were hit in Qatar. The developments removed a large portion of feedstock for gas-powered plants in Asia, including Japan and Korea, which are the main consumers of higher grades of Australian thermal coal out of the Newcastle port. Ample appropriate facilities from the two large economies propel gas-to-coal switching for power generation, unlike China and India, which have more steady capacity and usually bid for lower-grade thermal coal.

Coal strengthened above $140 per ton and was on track to gain more than 20% in March, marking its biggest monthly advance since the peak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in May 2022. The surge comes as the prolonged Middle East conflict kept a risk premium in energy markets, prompting power generators across Asia and Europe to increase reliance on coal. Japan has joined other nations in signaling plans to ramp up coal-fired power generation to offset the energy shock from the Iran war. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump is reportedly willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even without the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, potentially giving Tehran greater control over the strategic waterway. Iran is also said to be preparing to disrupt Red Sea shipping, raising the risk that two key global trade and energy corridors could be effectively cut off.

Coal strengthened above $140 per ton, hovering near its highest levels since October 2024 as uncertainties over diplomatic efforts to end the Iran war kept a risk premium in energy prices. In the latest developments, President Donald Trump extended a deadline to attack Iranian energy infrastructure for 10 days to allow for negotiations, though the Pentagon is reportedly looking to send up to 10,000 additional ground troops in the Middle East. Coal prices have surged more than 20% since the Iran war began, as prolonged disruptions to global oil and gas flows forced power generators in major economies to rely more heavily on coal. Japan has joined other nations, signaling plans to increase the use of coal-fired power plants to cope with the energy shock from the Middle East conflict.