Canola Hits 7-week High

Canola futures have steadied near CAD 650 per tonne near two-month highs set on January 23rd, as renewed optimism around China-Canada trade thawed into a more competitive and supply-heavy outlook. While China has resumed purchases of Canadian canola following tariff reductions, demand has lagged expectations, with buying skewed toward deferred shipments rather than prompt loading. At the same time, Australia’s return to the Chinese market for the first time in several years has intensified price competition, with Australian cargoes offered at parity or slight discounts to Canadian seed, diluting Canada’s ability to quickly reclaim lost market share. This demand recovery has also coincided with a sharply looser global balance, as forecasts point to a record 2025/26 rapeseed crop and a significant rise in ending stocks, reinforcing supply pressure. Expectations of larger Canadian plantings ahead and lingering trade uncertainty tied to US tariff threats have further capped upside.

Canola futures slipped below CAD 650 per tonne, easing from two-month highs reached on January 23rd as early optimism around improved China-Canada trade conditions gave way to slower-than-expected physical demand and growing supply pressures. Despite diplomatic progress, Canadian canola exports to China remain well below last year’s pace, limiting near-term demand even as some deferred buying has emerged for later delivery. At the same time, higher global rapeseed output and rising 2025/26 ending stocks have added supply weight, while competing exports from Australia, Russia and the EU continue to displace Canadian volumes in key Asian markets. Trade risk has also resurfaced after the US threatened broad tariffs on Canadian goods, raising concerns over potential spillovers into agricultural trade. Together with expectations of larger Canadian plantings ahead, these factors have eased prices modestly, even as steady domestic crush demand continues to provide an underlying floor.

Canola increased to 651.40 CAD/T, the highest since December 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Canola gained 8.75%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 1.88%.