Brent Crude Set for Biggest Weekly Drop since Covid

Brent crude hovered at around $98 a barrel on Friday, down more than 13% this week, the steepest decline since March 2020, as hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East eased concerns over supply disruptions. US President Donald Trump discussed de-escalation efforts with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, while Tehran is reportedly reviewing proposals from mediators concerning its nuclear programme. A potential resolution to the conflict could allow more crude exports from the region. However, significant obstacles remain, as Iran is demanding the lifting of the US naval blockade, sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets before fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, attacks on oil-carrying vessels continue, with UKMTO data indicating that incidents remain close to record levels.

Brent crude rose above $99 per barrel on Friday but was still on track to post a weekly loss of more than 11%, driven by optimism over a potentially quicker resolution to the Middle East conflict following a Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections, although uncertainties persist. Democrats secured control of both houses of Congress, potentially limiting President Donald Trump’s support for the war against Iran. Tehran is reportedly reviewing proposals submitted by mediators regarding its nuclear program, but maintained that the US naval blockade of its ports must be lifted, sanctions eased and frozen assets released before it fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, at least five vessel-related incidents have been reported in the Persian Gulf since Sunday, highlighting continued risks to maritime shipping. Still, conditions have improved significantly, with Gulf crude exports recovering to near pre-war levels, although transportation costs remain elevated.

Brent crude prices rose for the first time in four sessions on Thursday, gaining nearly 4% to around $98 a barrel after plunging more than 8% to a near two-month low in the previous session. Traders continued to assess whether the Democratic Party's gains in the US midterm elections could improve prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict with Iran. Tehran is reviewing proposals delivered through regional mediators, although Washington and Tehran remain divided over the terms of a potential agreement. Meanwhile, shipping risks persist. At least five vessel-related incidents have been reported in the Persian Gulf since Sunday, with threats to commercial traffic continuing despite a recovery in crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Supply conditions have improved considerably, with Gulf crude exports recovering towards pre-war levels, albeit at higher transportation costs. However, geopolitical risks surrounding these shipments remain unresolved.