Brent Steadies as Middle East Uncertainty Persists

Brent crude steadied around $98 per barrel on Thursday after rising in the previous session, as investors weighed signs of a recovery in Middle East flows against an ongoing impasse in US-Iran negotiations. Crude shipments from the region were nearing pre-war levels after Saudi Arabia restored half the capacity of its East-West pipeline, while flows through the Strait of Hormuz climbed to 13.2 million barrels per day. However, markets remain cautious about the durability of the recovery without a lasting agreement to end the Iran war, with both Tehran and Washington claiming full control over the strategic waterway. Meanwhile, Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said Tehran had received a US proposal regarding the reopening of the strait. Elsewhere, OPEC+ is expected to keep November output quotas unchanged at its meeting this weekend.

Brent crude climbed toward $98 a barrel on Wednesday after dipping in the previous session, as reports that US President Donald Trump has no intention of easing sanctions on Iran raised concerns over exports from one of OPEC’s biggest producers. Uncertainty over US-Iran negotiations continued to support prices. Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said Tehran had received a US proposal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, after Iran submitted its own conditions last week. Meanwhile, Middle East crude supplies have rebounded strongly this month, with Hormuz flows reaching 13.2 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia also restarted shipments from Yanbu after restoring its East-West pipeline, providing an alternative route around Hormuz. However, flows remain below pre-conflict levels, keeping the market undersupplied. OPEC+ is expected to leave November output quotas unchanged at this weekend’s meeting. Brent crude is up about 8% this month.

Brent crude rose back toward $98 a barrel on Wednesday and was heading for a monthly gain of more than 8% as uncertainty over US-Iran negotiations continued to support prices. Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said Tehran had received a US proposal concerning the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, following the submission of Iran’s own conditions last week. Despite the diplomatic uncertainty, Middle East crude supplies have recovered close to pre-war levels. Saudi Arabia has restarted shipments from Yanbu after restoring operations on its East-West pipeline, which provides an alternative route around Hormuz. The 10-day average of Middle East crude exports is estimated at 17.5 million barrels a day, equivalent to 98% of pre-war volumes. In the US, API data showed crude and gasoline inventories increased last week, while distillate stocks declined. Official EIA figures were due later Wednesday, with analysts expecting overall crude and product inventories to have fallen.