Brent Retreats on Talks of a Phased Deal

Brent crude fell below $106 per barrel on Friday, snapping a two-day rally amid reports that the US and Iran were considering a phased deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift a US blockade on Iranian ports. Efforts to reach a breakthrough were reportedly underway on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, with Qatari officials mediating the talks. Iran has maintained that it must retain control over Hormuz and would not accept a deal unless the US eases military pressure and removes its blockade. Meanwhile, a White House official said President Donald Trump remained open to talks with Iran but stressed that the US had little need to negotiate given its strong position following the sanctions campaign and blockade. Elsewhere, tensions in the Middle East escalated after Iran-aligned Houthi militants in Yemen launched missiles toward Saudi cities, including Yanbu and Taif. Brent prices are on track to gain more than 2% for the week.

Brent crude traded near $107 a barrel on Thursday, trimming a surge that peaked at over $108 amid signs that the US and Iran could be working to restore Persian Gulf exports. Reports suggested US and Iranian negotiators were exploring a deal to lift naval blockades on tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz and ease US sanctions on Iran. Earlier, prices surged after Iran-allied Houthi militants in Yemen fired missiles at Saudi cities including Yanbu and Taif. Yanbu is a key oil export terminal on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast. Saudi Arabia’s workaround for the Strait of Hormuz now carries war-risk insurance costs nearly as high as sending tankers through the strait. Only 10 commodity vessels transited Hormuz on Wednesday, below the 10-day moving average of 17. Meanwhile, the US Senate narrowly rejected a nonbinding measure demanding an end to the war with Iran.

Brent oil prices were near $105 per barrel on Thursday, trimming a surge that peaked at $97 amid signs that the US and Iran could be working to re-establish exports from the Persian Gulf. Reports suggested that US and Iranian negotiators were exploring a deal that would lift naval blockades against tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz and ease US sanctions on the Iranian economy. Strikes on commercial vessels earlier this month had brought oil exports out of GCC countries to a near standstill. The supply disruption was compounded by attacks on the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia, which had been diverting 7 million bpd of crude to Red Sea ports. The prolonged halt of tanker flows from the region forced major OPEC members to cut oil production, with Saudi output recently dropping to its lowest level since 1990. Lower stocks from China risked buying from the world's top importer, while the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) stands at a near-record low.