Brent Slips as Traders Weigh Middle East Risks

Brent crude rose above $103 a barrel in a volatile session on Thursday as Iran ramped up attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz and Hurricane Isaias threatened US offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico. Nine tankers have come under attack in and around Hormuz over the past week, jeopardizing the recent recovery in crude oil flows through the strait. About 9.5 million bpd exited Hormuz in the week ended Tuesday, around 30% below normal levels before the Iran war. In the Gulf of Mexico, oil companies have shut in about 500,000 bpd, or 25% of offshore production, as Hurricane Isaias moves toward the Alabama, Mississippi and Florida Panhandle coasts. Prices had earlier retreated from session highs after US President Donald Trump said the US would not attack Iran before the November midterm elections. Earlier reports indicated that Trump and his national security team were considering renewed strikes in the coming weeks.

Brent crude oil eased to $103 per barrel on Thursday from $106 earlier in the session, as US President Trump downplayed the prospect of an imminent strike on Iran that would re-escalate the conflict in the Middle East. The US president signaled that discussions with Tehran were productive and that the US would not strike Iran before the midterm elections early next month. Still, crude held firmly above the one-month low touched yesterday, as attacks on laden tankers in the Persian Gulf halted the nascent recovery in exports from GCC members. On top of that, supply disruptions emerged in the Gulf of Mexico, where Chevron and Shell began curbing production and evacuating offshore personnel as Tropical Storm Isaias approached. As of Wednesday, roughly 25.1% of US Gulf oil production and 16.4% of natural gas output had been shut in. Earlier data from the EIA showed that the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell further, approaching multi-decade lows.

Brent prices rose toward $105 a barrel on Thursday as concerns over supply disruptions intensified. Reports showed that the White House had asked the Pentagon to draw up strike options against Iran that could be executed before the midterm elections, while US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he no longer wanted a deal with Iran. Also, attacks on shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz have intensified, with the Houthis stepping up strikes against Saudi Arabia. Oil prices also received support from supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico, where companies including Chevron and Shell have begun curbing production and evacuating personnel from offshore facilities as Tropical Storm Isaias approaches. As of Wednesday, around 25.1% of current US Gulf of Mexico oil production and 16.4% of natural gas production had been shut in because of the storm, according to the Marine Minerals Administration.