Brent Rises as US Strikes Iranian Rocket Launchers

Brent crude climbed toward $90 per barrel on Monday, starting the week higher after the US military targeted Iranian rocket launchers preparing to deploy mines into the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first such attack in more than a month. US forces also said they are closely monitoring the waterway and remain prepared to safeguard the free flow of commerce. The US last launched missiles at Iranian targets in late July but has since shifted its focus toward squeezing the country’s economy through sanctions to push Tehran back to the negotiating table. An Iranian official said Friday that resuming diplomacy with the US “isn’t impossible” following constructive discussions with Qatar, a mediator in the conflict. Meanwhile, reports indicated that around 6 to 8 million barrels of crude are still flowing through Hormuz each day despite the absence of a peace agreement between Washington and Tehran.

Brent crude oil fell to $89.3 a barrel on Friday, extending weekly losses to over 5%, as traders increasingly viewed the Iran situation as an economic/sanctions confrontation rather than an imminent threat to physical supply, while improving flows through Hormuz and the proposed Iran–Oman corridor further reduced the perceived supply risk. Goldman Sachs estimated that Persian Gulf oil exports have climbed to around 15–16 million barrels per day, still significantly below pre-conflict volumes of 22–24 million barrels but well above the March low of about 5–6 million barrels. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman agreed on a revenue-sharing framework for the strait, although Tehran emphasized that this does not imply an immediate reopening. Still, the Trump administration reportedly told mediators it does not intend to revive the terms of a preliminary June agreement with Iran that subsequently collapsed.

Brent crude slipped to around $88 per barrel on Friday, paring gains from the previous session as traders continued to monitor developments in the Middle East and efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs said oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels amid increased flows through Hormuz. Total crude exports from the region have reportedly risen to 15-16 million barrels per day, still around 7-8 million barrels below pre-conflict levels but well above a trough of 5-6 million barrels in March. Iran and Oman also reached a revenue-sharing agreement over the strategic waterway, although Tehran stressed that the arrangement does not guarantee an immediate reopening of the strait. Meanwhile, the Trump administration told mediators that it has no interest in returning to the terms of a preliminary deal reached with Iran in June that later collapsed.