Brent Jumps as Iran and Israel Exchange Missile Strikes

Brent crude futures jumped more than 4% to above $97 per barrel on Monday, rebounding from a two-session decline after Iran and Israel exchanged missile strikes, threatening to derail President Trump's efforts to secure a new 60-day ceasefire with Tehran. The proposed truce is intended to pave the way for broader negotiations aimed at ending the conflict permanently. Trump also called on both sides to avoid further military action and reiterated that negotiations remain ongoing despite the renewed hostilities. Meanwhile, the prolonged conflict and the continued near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, providing ongoing support to oil prices. Separately, OPEC+ approved another increase in July oil production quotas of 188,000 barrels per day despite persistent supply risks stemming from tensions in the Middle East.

Brent crude futures climbed above $96 per barrel on Monday, rebounding after two consecutive sessions of losses as Iran launched multiple rounds of missiles toward Israel, warning against further military actions in Lebanon and raising concerns over the durability of a fragile ceasefire amid stalled peace negotiations. Israel's military said all incoming missiles were intercepted, with no casualties reported. According to reports, President Donald Trump criticized Israel's strikes on Beirut and said he would urge Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to avoid retaliatory action against Iran, while also calling on Tehran to resume negotiations. Meanwhile, the protracted conflict and the ongoing near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz have cut off energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, keeping oil prices elevated. Separately, OPEC+ approved another increase in July oil production quotas of 188,000 barrels per day despite persistent supply risks linked to tensions in the Middle East.

Brent crude oil futures slid 2% to around $93 per barrel on Friday as markets focused on signs of weaker global demand and the lack of a breakthrough in negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Although President Trump maintained that discussions with Iran are progressing, tensions remain elevated, with disagreements over Lebanon continuing to complicate efforts to secure a broader agreement. Concerns about consumption also weighed on prices after Chinese crude imports fell to their lowest level in ten years, reflecting reduced refinery activity and softer demand. Several analysts now expect global oil demand growth to slow significantly this year. Earlier gains driven by fears of prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have faded somewhat, though uncertainty over the region remains high. In Oman, operations at the Mina Al Fahal export terminal were briefly disrupted by an explosion before resuming.