Brent Rises on US-Iran Deal Uncertainties

Brent crude futures climbed toward $96 per barrel on Thursday, recovering some losses from the previous session as negotiations between the US and Iran remained deadlocked over several key issues tied to ending the conflict. Among the main obstacles are Tehran’s demands to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz and preserve its nuclear program. President Donald Trump also reiterated that Washington would not accept what he described as a bad deal, while rejecting any sanctions relief despite Iran’s calls for an end to attacks and economic concessions. Meanwhile, Iranian state television reported the existence of an unofficial draft agreement aimed at halting the war, though the White House dismissed the claim as “a complete fabrication.” Even so, oil prices remain on track for a second straight weekly decline amid expectations that both sides could eventually secure a peace agreement and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude oil futures dropped more than 4% to below $96 per barrel on Wednesday, hovering near a five-week low as optimism grew that the US and Iran could reach a peace agreement, despite conflicting signals from both sides. Iranian state television reported an unofficial draft of an interim deal to end the war, while the White House dismissed the report as “a complete fabrication”. A potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about 20% of global oil and LNG supplies, could significantly ease pressure on global energy markets. However, major issues remain unresolved, including Iran’s frozen assets and guarantees over shipping access through the strait. Iranian officials said indirect talks with Washington are continuing, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that any agreement may still take several days. The Strait remains largely closed, although two non-Iranian supertankers crossed Hormuz on Tuesday for the first time in a week.

Brent crude oil futures fell more than 4.5% to below $95 per barrel on Wednesday, after Iranian state television said Tehran is committed to restoring commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within a month. The strait, which normally handles about 20% of global oil and LNG flows, remains a critical route for energy markets. At least two non-Iranian supertankers exited the chokepoint on Tuesday, marking the first movement in a week of roughly 4 million barrels of unrestricted crude through Hormuz. Oil prices have now fallen to near five-week lows and are down more than 16% in May after surging in March and April, supported by optimism that the US and Iran are moving closer to a deal to fully reopen the strait. An Iranian official said indirect talks with Washington are continuing, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that any peace agreement could still take several days to complete.