Brent Drops Further Despite Over 60% Monthly Surge

Brent crude climbed above $101 per barrel on Wednesday, extending gains from the previous session as persistent risks to Middle East energy flows overshadowed signs of rising supply from the region. Iran has intensified attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, with the UK Maritime Trade Operations reporting nine incidents so far this month. Meanwhile, a Saudi-led coalition said it had intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile launched by the Houthis toward Khamis Mushait in Saudi Arabia. Despite the latest developments, oil prices remain lower for the week as energy flows from the Persian Gulf show signs of recovery, with tankers discreetly passing through the Strait of Hormuz despite heightened risks and Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline restoring crude pumping capacity to 5.8 million barrels per day. In the US, industry data showed crude inventories declined by 2.1 million barrels last week, while official figures are due later today.

Brent pared most of its early losses to trade around $100.1 a barrel on Tuesday, after falling to $97.8 earlier in the session as supply concerns resurfaced. A Saudi-led coalition said it had intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile launched by the Houthis toward Khamis Mushait in Saudi Arabia, while reports indicated that Iran had stepped up attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz in the past days. However, signs of improving supply flows continued to weigh on prices. Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources announced that the East-West oil pipeline had restored its crude pumping capacity to 5.8 million bpd. Meanwhile, G7 countries agreed on Friday to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves and pledged to refrain from imposing energy export restrictions. Despite these measures, the EIA projected Brent crude prices at $105 a barrel in Q4 2026, $14 higher than its previous forecast.

Brent crude fell for a third consecutive session on Tuesday, approaching $98 a barrel, amid signs that Middle Eastern crude exports are recovering. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister said that oil flows through the East-West Pipeline reached 5.8 million barrels, while Reuters reported that shipments through the route had not been interrupted. In addition, reports showed that crude exports from the Middle East exceeded pre-war levels on four days during the final week of September. Adding to the bearish pressure, G7 countries agreed on Friday to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves and pledged to refrain from imposing energy export restrictions. Saudi Arabia also sharply cut the price of its flagship crude grade for Asian buyers as supply flows improved, providing further evidence of a loosening market. Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed to keep its oil production targets unchanged for November.