Brent Pulls Back on De-Escalation Hopes

Brent crude oil prices fell to the $105 per barrel mark on Tuesday, trimming the surge that topped at $108 today after the Iranian President stated he is ready to end the war if Iranian conditions are met. The rhetoric matched US President Trump's de-escalation attempts after suspending attacks on the country, potentially aiding an eventual restart of tanker flows from major GCC oil producers in the Strait of Hormuz. While hopes of restored supply limited the pressure in crude prices, the small magnitude of the pullback reflected skepticism of imminent peace due to the rigidity of Iran's previous demands and the movement of US troops to the Middle East, risking escalation. Global oil prices were due to gain around 40% in March, peaking at their highest since 2022 as the outbreak of the war halted supplies from the region and damaged energy infrastructure in key OPEC members.

Brent crude oil futures traded around $107 per barrel amid rising tensions in the Gulf. Iran attacked the Kuwaiti oil tanker Al-Salmi near Dubai, damaging its hull, signaling willingness to escalate strikes on energy infrastructure. Tehran has repeatedly targeted ships across the Gulf since the conflict began. Meanwhile, reports indicate President Donald Trump may end US military operations in Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, focusing instead on degrading Iran’s navy and missile capabilities. Trump has oscillated between threats of escalation, including potential strikes on Iranian power plants and oil facilities, and suggesting a near end to hostilities. Brent crude has jumped by nearly 50% this month, its largest gain since May 2020, with markets jittery over US troop movements, potential ground action, and regional strikes, including Israeli attacks on Tehran and Saudi interceptions of drones.

Brent crude futures retreated to around $107 per barrel on Tuesday, reversing gains from earlier in the session following reports that President Donald Trump told aides he is willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, potentially strengthening Tehran’s control over the strategic waterway. Meanwhile, Iran struck a Kuwaiti oil tanker near a Dubai port, underscoring heightened risks for shipping in the Persian Gulf. Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen also entered the conflict by targeting Israel over the weekend, while Tehran is reportedly preparing to disrupt Red Sea shipping. These developments could further tighten energy flows from the Middle East, as two of the world’s main trade and energy corridors face potential disruption. The international oil benchmark remains on track for a record monthly surge of over 60%.