Brent Crude Heads for Nearly 50% Monthly Gain

Brent crude futures rose more than 2% to above $103 per barrel on Monday, recouping losses from last week after President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest response to his proposal aimed at ending the 10-week conflict, leaving the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. In a post on Truth Social, Trump called Tehran’s reply “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE,” amid reports that Iran had proposed transferring part of its highly enriched uranium stockpile to a third country while refusing to dismantle its nuclear infrastructure. At the same time, drone attacks struck a cargo vessel near Qatar in the Persian Gulf, while the UAE and Kuwait said they had intercepted hostile drones, raising fears that the fragile ceasefire reached in early April could collapse. The extended shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted global flows of crude oil, natural gas, and refined fuels, triggering what the IEA described as the largest supply shock on record.

Brent crude oil futures rose 1.2% to settle near $101 per barrel on Friday as renewed clashes between the US and Iran raised doubts about the durability of a fragile ceasefire and tempered hopes for a quick peace agreement, though prices still posted a weekly loss of about 6%. Fighting in the Persian Gulf kept markets focused on the Strait of Hormuz, which has remained largely closed since late February, disrupting global crude flows and creating a major supply shock. Iran accused the US of violating the ceasefire, while Washington said American forces struck Iranian military targets after attacks on US warships and blocked tankers attempting to leave Iranian ports. President Donald Trump said the ceasefire remained in effect despite the exchanges. Traders continue balancing expectations for diplomacy against the risk of further escalation.

Brent crude oil futures fell 7% to around $101 per barrel this week as President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran remained in place despite fresh clashes between US and Iranian forces, reinforcing hopes that a broader agreement could still be reached. US Central Command said American forces struck military targets in Iran after Tehran fired on three destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz, though officials stressed they were not seeking escalation. Trump later said the vessels had safely exited the strait without damage. Oil markets remain focused on Hormuz, which has been effectively closed since late February, disrupting global crude flows and forcing production shutdowns across the region. Traders continue balancing hopes for diplomacy against the risk of renewed escalation. The International Energy Agency warned the conflict is removing around 14 million barrels per day from global supply, while the UAE reported intercepting missiles and drones near the strait.