Bulgaria Q1 GDP Steady at 2.9%

The Bulgarian economy grew by 3.1% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, exceeding the preliminary estimate of 2.9% and slightly accelerating from a 2.9% expansion in the previous quarter. The expansion was primarily driven by stronger investment activity, with gross capital formation accelerating sharply (18.7% vs 12.0% in Q4), while gross fixed capital formation gained at a softer pace (9.1% vs 12.1%) and overall final consumption softened slightly (7.8% vs 8.1%). Net trade continued to weigh on growth, as exports of goods and services fell (-7.4% vs 0.7%), while imports rose albeit at a softer pace (8.2% vs 11.1%). On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded 0.7% in Q1, in line with preliminary estimates and easing from 0.8% in Q4.

The Bulgarian economy grew 2.9% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, unchanged from the previous period, according to preliminary estimates. Net external demand contributed positively to overall growth, as exports of goods and services rose 0.4% after stagnating in Q4 2025, while import growth slowed to 6.4% from 11.1%. However, gains were partly offset by a slowdown in domestic demand. Final consumption growth eased to 6.9% from 7.9%, while gross fixed capital formation moderated to 8% from 11.6% in the previous quarter. On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded 0.7% in Q1, matching the pace recorded in Q4 2025.

The Bulgarian economy grew by 3% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly revising upward from 2.9% growth in preliminary estimates, albeit marginally easing from a revised 3.1% expansion in the previous quarter. This marked the weakest pace of growth since the third quarter of 2024, despite final consumption rising (7.8% vs 7.4% in Q3), driven by both household consumption (8.7% vs 8.2%) and government spending (3% vs 0.9%). In addition, gross fixed capital increased to 12.4% in Q4 2025 from 10.3% in the previous quarter. On net external demand, exports of goods and services rebounded to 0.2% from a 4.3% fall, while imports jumped to 11.1% from 4%. On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded 0.8% in Q4, in line with preliminary estimates and edging up from 0.7% in Q3. For 2025 as a whole, the Bulgarian economy grew 3.1%.