Monday November 05 2018
Turkish October Inflation Rate Highest Since 2003
Turkish Statistical Institute l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

The Turkish consumer price inflation increased to 25.24 percent year-on-year in October of 2018 from a 24.52 percent in the prior month, and beating market expectations of 24.5 percent. It was the highest inflation rate since July 2003, as both food and housing prices increased faster while transport prices continued to rise amid a falling lira.

Main upward pressure came from: food and non-alcoholic beverages (29.26 percent vs 27.70 percent in September); housing and utilities (25.72 percent vs 21.84 percent); transportation (32 percent vs 36.61 percent); furnishing and household equipment (37.92 percent vs 37.28 percent); hotels, cafes and restaurants (20.06 percent vs 19.09 percent); clothing and footwear (18.45 percent vs 17.16 percent); alcoholic beverages and tobacco (2.06 percent vs 1.88 percent); and miscellaneous goods and services (31.50 percent vs 30.61 percent).
 
Annual core inflation rate, which excludes energy, food and non-alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages, tobacco and gold, rose to an all-time high of 24.34 percent in October from a 24.05 percent in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 2.67 percent in October, beating market expectations of a 2 percent gain and following a 6.30 percent rise in September. The sharpest increases were recorded for clothing (12.74 percent); housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (4.15 percent); furnishing, household equipment (3.44 percent); food and non-alcoholic beverages (3.22 percent); recreation and culture (2.07 percent), and communication (2.05 percent).
 
 
 




Wednesday October 31 2018
Turkey Posts Smallest Trade Gap in 9-1/2 Years
Turkish Statistical Institute | Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Turkish trade gap tumbled by 77.1 percent to USD 1.87 billion in September 2018 from USD 8.17 billion in the corresponding month of the previous year. It was the smallest trade deficit since February 2009 as exports jumped 22.4 percent while imports tumbled 18.3 percent amid a falling lira.

Exports surged 22.4 percent from a year earlier to USD 14.5 billion as sales of manufactured products, which accounted for 94.4 percent of total shipments, jumped 23.9 percent. Also, exports of agriculture, hunting and forestry edged up 0.2 percent, while those for mining and quarrying dropped 2.8 percent. Among major trading partners, exports increased mainly to Germany (15.6 percent), the UK (38.2 percent), Italy (27.3 percent); Iraq (10.1 percent); Spain (33.8 percent), the US (2.2 percent), France (9.5 percent), the Netherlands (36 percent), Belgium (37.9 percent) and Romania (20.7 percent).
 
Imports slumped 18.3 percent to USD 16.3 billion. Purchases of intermediate goods accounted for 78.7 percent of total imports in September and dropped 13.4 percent. Additionally, imports declined for both capital (-26 percent) and consumption goods (-41.2 percent). Among major trading partners, imports went down mainly from Russia (-5.5 percent), China (-29.5 percent), Germany (-26.2 percent), Italy (-29.4 percent), Iran (-16.8 percent), South Korea (-30.1 percent), France (-20.9 percent) and the UK (-17.8 percent). Meanwhile, purchases from the US rose 10.9 percent and those from India jumped 31.9 percent.
 
Considering the January to September period, the trade gap narrowed 5.2 percent to USD 51.1 billion as exports advanced 7 percent to USD 123.0 billion and imports increased at a softer 3.1 percent to USD 174.2 billion.




Thursday October 25 2018
Turkey Leaves Policy Rate Unchanged at 24%
Central Bank of Turkey | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

The Central Bank of Turkey held its one week repo auction rate at 24 percent on September 25th as widely expected, following a 625 bps hike last month to support the lira. Policymakers noted that external demand maintains its strength while slowdown in economic activity continues, partly due to tighter financial conditions. Still, the central bank pledged to tighten monetary policy further if necessary. The lira has rebounded recently, erasing the losses inflicted by American sanctions in August, after diplomatic relations with Washington improved.

Statement by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey:

Recently released data show that rebalancing trend in the economy has become more noticeable. External demand maintains its strength while slowdown in economic activity continues, partly due to tighter financial conditions.

Recent developments regarding the inflation outlook point to significant risks to price stability. Price increases have shown a generalized pattern across subsectors, reflecting the movements in exchange rates. Although weaker domestic demand conditions will partially mitigate the deterioration in the inflation outlook, upside risks on the pricing behavior continue to prevail. Accordingly, the Committee has decided to maintain the tight monetary policy stance.

The Central Bank will continue to use all available instruments in pursuit of the price stability objective. Tight stance in monetary policy will be maintained decisively until inflation outlook displays a significant improvement. Inflation expectations, pricing behavior, lagged impact of recent monetary policy decisions, contribution of fiscal policy to rebalancing process, and other factors affecting inflation will be closely monitored and, if needed, further monetary tightening will be delivered.

It should be emphasized that any new data or information may lead the Committee to revise its stance.




Monday October 15 2018
Turkish Jobless Rate Rises to 10.8% in July
Turkstat | Agna Gabriel | agna.gabriel@tradingeconomics.com

The Turkish unemployment rate increased to 10.8 percent in July of 2018 from 10.7 percent in the same month of the previous year.

The number of unemployed went up by 88 thousand from a year earlier to 3,531 thousand in July, and employment rose 507 thousand to 29,265 thousand. Meanwhile, the number of people detached from the labour force increased by 156 thousand to 27,883 thousand. The participation rate went up to 54 percent in July from 53.7 percent a year ago, and employment rate advanced to 48.2 percent from 48 percent.

The non-agricultural jobless rate edged down to 12.9 percent in July from 13 percent in the previous year. The non-farm sector added 755 thousand jobs, namely industry and services while the farm sector lost 247 thousand jobs and the number of construction workers also declined. 

Youth unemployment rate, measuring job-seekers between 15 and 24 years old, dropped to 19.9 percent from 21.1 percent in the same month a year ago. 

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate rose to 11 percent in July from 10.9 percent in June.




Wednesday October 03 2018
Turkish Inflation Rate Jumps to 15-Year High
Turkish Statistical Institute | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

The Turkish consumer price inflation climbed to 24.52 percent year-on-year in September 2018, the highest level since August 2003, as the impact of a currency crisis continued to hurt the economy. The sharp increase in inflation came in despite a 625 bps hike in interest rates on September 13th.

Main upward pressure came from: food and non-alcoholic beverages (27.70 percent vs 19.75 percent in August); transportation (36.61 percent vs 27.13 percent); housing and utilities (21.84 percent vs 16.30 percent); furnishing and household equipment (37.28 percent vs 23.76 percent); hotels, cafes and restaurants (19.09 percent vs 14.83 percent); clothing and footwear (17.16 percent vs 13.59 percent); alcoholic beverages and tobacco (1.88 percent vs 1.81 percent); and miscellaneous goods and services (30.61 percent vs 23.23 percent).

Annual core inflation rate, which excludes energy, food and non-alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages, tobacco and gold, rose to an all-time high of 24.05 percent in September from 17.22 percent in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices jumped 6.30 percent in September, far above market expectations of a 3.60 percent climb and following a 2.3 percent rise in August. The sharpest increases were recorded for furnishing and household equipment (11.41 percent), transportation (9.15 percent), miscellaneous goods and services (7.42 percent), recreation and culture (6.62 percent) and food and non-alcoholic beverages (6.40 percent).


Friday September 28 2018
Turkish Trade Deficit Narrows Sharply in August
Turkish Statistical Institute | Agna Gabriel | agna.gabriel@tradingeconomics.com

Turkish trade gap fell by 59 percent year-on-year to USD 2.42 billion in August of 2018 from USD 5.91 billion in the corresponding month of the previous year. It is the lowest trade deficit since March of 2009 as imports dropped 22.7 percent to the lowest value in two years amid a falling lira while exports declined at a softer 6.5 percent.

Exports dropped 6.5 percent to USD 12.4 billion. Sales of manufactured products, which accounted for 94.9 percent of total shipments went down 6 percent. Also, exports fell for agriculture, hunting and forestry (-6.4 percent); mining and quarrying (-31 percent) and fisheries (-8.3 percent). On the other hand, sales of other products increased by 31.2 percent from August of 2017. Exports decreased mainly to Germany (-16 percent); Iraq (-33.2 percent) and the US (-10.1 percent); while those to the UK increased 6.5 percent.

Imports slumped 22.7 percent from a year earlier to USD 14.8 billion. Purchases of intermediate goods accounted for 78.4 percent in August and decreased 166.5 percent. Additionally, imports declined for capital goods (-36.3 percent); consumption (-42.4 percent) and others (-54.5 percent). Among major trading partners, purchases went down mainly from Russia (-2.5 percent); China (-31.6 percent); Germany (-31.3 percent) and the US (-3.7 percent).

Considering the January to August period, exports advanced 5.2 percent to USD 108.6 billion and imports rose 5.9 percent to USD 157.8 billion, thus widening the trade deficit by 7.6 percent to USD 49.2 billion.

Compared with the previous month, seasonally and calendar adjusted exports increased by 2.2 percent while imports decreased by 8 percent.


Monday September 17 2018
Turkish Jobless Rate Holds Steady at 10.2% in June
Turkstat | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

The Turkish unemployment rate came in at 10.2 percent in June 2018, unchanged from the previous year's figure.

The number of unemployed increased 2 percent from a year earlier to 3.315 million in June, and employment rose 2.1 percent to 29.314 million. Meanwhile, the number of people detached from the labour force went up 0.3 percent to 29.997 million. The participation rate increased to 53.8 percent in June from 53.4 percent a year ago, and the employment rate advanced to 48.4 percent from 48.0 percent.

The non-agricultural jobless rate edged down to 12.1 percent in June from 12.2 percent in the previous year. The non-farm sector added 744 thousand jobs, namely in industry and services while the farm sector lost 133 thousand jobs and the number of construction workers also declined.

Youth unemployment rate, measuring job-seekers between 15 and 24 years old, dropped to 19.4 percent from 20.6 percent in the same month a year ago.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate rose to 10.9 percent in June from 10.6 percent in May.


Thursday September 13 2018
Turkey Hikes Policy Rate to 24%
Central Bank of Turkey | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

The Central Bank of Turkey raised its benchmark interest rate by 625 bps to 24 percent on September 13th 2018, surprising markets who expected a hike of 425 bps. The move pushed the borrowing costs to the highest since 2004 and was aimed to support the economy and falling currency.

Statement by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey:

Recently released data indicate a more significant rebalancing trend in the economic activity. External demand maintains its strength, while slowdown in domestic demand accelerates.

Recent developments regarding the inflation outlook point to significant risks to price stability. Price increases have shown a generalized pattern across subsectors, reflecting the movements in exchange rates. Deterioration in the pricing behavior continues to pose upside risks on the inflation outlook, despite weaker domestic demand conditions. Accordingly, the Committee has decided to implement a strong monetary tightening to support price stability.

The Central Bank will continue to use all available instruments in pursuit of the price stability objective. Tight stance in monetary policy will be maintained decisively until inflation outlook displays a significant improvement. Inflation expectations, pricing behavior, lagged impact of recent monetary policy decisions, contribution of fiscal policy to rebalancing process, and other factors affecting inflation will be closely monitored and, if needed, further monetary tightening will be delivered.


Monday September 10 2018
Turkish GDP Growth Slows to 5.2% in Q2
Turkish Statistical Institute | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

The Turkish economy grew by 5.2 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2018, easing from a downwardly revised 7.3 percent expansion in the previous three-month period. It was the weakest growth rate since the last quarter of 2016.

On the expenditure side, household consumption increased 6.3 percent in the second quarter, after a 9.3 percent jump in Q1; and fixed investment rose 3.9 percent, following a 7.9 percent climb in the previous period. Meanwhile, government spending went up at a faster 7.2 percent (vs 4.9 percent in Q1), and net external demand contributed positively to the GDP growth, as exports surged 4.5 percent (vs 0.7 percent in Q1) buyoed by a persistent currency weakness and imports advanced at a much softer 0.3 percent (vs 15.4 percent in Q1).

On the production side, services output grew 8 percent (vs 10.4 percent in Q1), mainly boosted by public administration, education, human health and social work activities (13.1 percent vs 4.5 percent); financial and insurance activities (12.1 percent vs 3 percent); and information and communication (7 percent vs 5.9 percent) On the other hand, a slowdown was seen in real estate activities (0.2 percent vs 3.4 percent), and a contraction was recorded in professional, administrative and support service activities (-1.3 percent vs 12.1 percent). Industrial production grew by 4.3 percent (vs 8.1 percent in Q1), driven by manufacturing (4.7 percent vs 8.7 percent), and construction output advanced by 0.8 percent (vs 6.6 percent). Meanwhile, agiculture shrank by 1.5 percent after a 6.1 percent increase in the previous period.

On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the economy expanded by 0.9 percent in the second quarter, following a downwardly revised 1.5 percent growth in the previous period.




Monday September 03 2018
Turkey Central Bank Hints at Rate Hike
Central Bank of Turkey | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

Turkey's central bank said on Monday the monetary policy stance will be adjusted at its September meeting in an attempt to support the lira, after data showed inflation jumped to its highest level since December 2003 amid a currency crisis.

The lira has already fallen some 40 percent against the dollar so far this year, largely due to worries about President Erdogan's influence over the economy, his repeated calls for lower interest rates despite high inflation and worsening rift with the US.

Press Release on Monetary Policy:

Recent developments regarding the inflation outlook indicate significant risks to price stability.

The Central Bank will take the necessary actions to support price stability.

Accordingly, in line with the previous communication, monetary stance will be adjusted at the September Monetary Policy Committee Meeting in view of the latest developments.

The Central Bank will continue to use all available instruments in pursuit of the price stability objective.