Wednesday January 16 2019
Turkey Holds Key Interest Rate at 24%
Central Bank of Turkey | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

The Central Bank of Turkey held its one week repo auction rate at 24 percent on January 16th as widely expected, saying risks on price stability continue to prevail although there was some improvement in the inflation outlook. The country's annual inflation rate fell to a four-month low of 20.3 percent in December, still way above the central bank's midpoint target of 5 percent.

Statement by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey:

Recently released data show that rebalancing trend in the economy has become more noticeable. External demand maintains its strength while slowdown in economic activity continues, partly due to tight financial conditions. Current account balance is expected to maintain its improving trend.

While developments in import prices and domestic demand conditions have led to some improvement in the inflation outlook, risks on price stability continue to prevail. Accordingly, the Committee has decided to maintain the tight monetary policy stance until inflation outlook displays a significant improvement.

The Central Bank will continue to use all available instruments in pursuit of the price stability objective. Inflation expectations, pricing behavior, lagged impact of recent monetary policy decisions, contribution of fiscal policy to rebalancing process, and other factors affecting inflation will be closely monitored and, if needed, further monetary tightening will be delivered.

It should be emphasized that any new data or information may lead the Committee to revise its stance.




Tuesday January 15 2019
Turkish Jobless Rate Rises to 11.6% in October
Turkish Statistical Institute | Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

The Turkish unemployment rate increased to 11.6 percent in October 2018 from 10.3 percent in the same month of the previous year.

The number of unemployed rose 501 thousand from a year earlier to 3.79 million in October, and employment went up 225 thousand to 28.87 million. The non-farm sector added 414 thousand jobs, namely in the industry and services sectors while the number of construction workers declined, and the farm sector lost 187 thousand jobs. Meanwhile, the number of people detached from the labour force decreased 34 thousand to 28.18 million. The participation rate increased to 53.7 percent in October from 53.1 percent a year ago, and the employment rate edged down to 47.5 percent from 47.6 percent.
 
The non-agricultural jobless rate went up to 13.6 percent in October from 12.3 percent in the previous year.
 
Youth unemployment rate, measuring job-seekers between 15 and 24 years old, also rose to 22.3 percent from 19.3 percent in the same month a year ago.
 
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate inched up to 11.5 percent in October from 11.3 percent in September.
 



 
 




Thursday January 03 2019
Turkish December Inflation Rate Falls Below Forecasts
Turkish Statistical Institute | Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

The Turkish consumer price inflation eased to 20.30 percent year-on-year in December 2018 from 21.62 percent in the prior month, and slightly below market expectations of 20.52 percent. It was the lowest inflation rate since August, mainly due to softer rises in prices of food, housing, and transport.

Inflation eased for: food and non-alcoholic beverages (25.11 percent vs 25.66 percent in November); housing and utilities (23.73 percent vs 24.76 percent); transportation (15.97 percent vs 21.03 percent); furnishing and household equipment (31.36 percent vs 32.73 percent); hotels, cafes and restaurants (19.81 percent vs 20.01 percent); clothing and footwear (14.83 percent vs 16.86 percent). Meanwhile, prices went up faster for both miscellaneous goods and services (28.80 percent vs 27.87 percent), and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (2.39 percent vs 2.23 percent).

Annual core inflation rate, which excludes energy, food and non-alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages, tobacco and gold, declined to 19.53 percent in December from 20.72 percent in the previous month.
 
On a monthly basis, consumer prices dropped 0.40 percent in December, following a 1.44 percent fall in November and compared to market expectations of a 0.23 percent decrease. This was the second straight monthly decline in consumer prices, due to decreases in costs of clothing and footwear (-4.08 percent), transportation (-2.56 percent), recreation and culture (-0.25 percent), communication (-0.11 percent) and housing (-0.06 percent).




Monday December 31 2018
Turkish Trade Gap Narrows Sharply in November
Turkish Statistical Institute | Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Turkish trade gap tumbled 89.8 percent to USD 0.7 billion in November 2018 from USD 6.4 billion in the corresponding month of the previous year. Exports rose 9.4 percent to USD 15.5 billion while imports slumped 21.3 percent to USD 16.2 billion on the back of a weak lira.

Exports rose 9.4 percent from a year earlier to USD 15.5 billion as sales of manufactured products, which accounted for 93 percent of total shipments, increased 9.7 percent. Also, exports of agriculture, hunting and forestry went up 3.9 percent, and those of mining and quarrying advanced 7.2 percent. Among major trading partners, exports increased mainly to Germany (4.2 percent), the UK (8.7 percent), Italy (4.0 percent), Iraq (36.8 percent), the US (13.0 percent), Spain (23.9 percent), France (0.1 percent), the Netherlands (5.4 percent), Belgium (36.2 percent) and Romania (22.3 percent). 
 
Imports slumped 21.3 percent to USD 16.2 billion. Purchases of intermediate goods accounted for 76.1 percent of total imports in November and dropped 17.7 percent from a year earlier. Additionally, imports fell for both capital (-20.0 percent) and consumption goods (-43.1 percent). Among major trading partners, imports declined mainly from Russia (-7.9 percent), Germany (-21.0 percent), China (-29.8 percent), Italy (-25.1 percent), India (-16.1 percent), France (-36.2 percent), the UK (-30.9 percent), South Korea (-23.7 percent) and Japan (-4.3 percent). Meanwhile, purchases from the US increased 15.0 percent.
 
Considering January to November, the trade gap narrowed 22.6 percent to USD 52.3 billion as exports advanced 7.7 percent to USD 154.2 billion and imports dropped 2.0 percent to USD 206.5 billion.




Monday December 17 2018
Turkish Jobless Rate Rises to 11.4% in September
Turkish Statistical Institute l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

The Turkish unemployment rate increased to 11.4 percent in September of 2018 from 10.6 percent in the same month of the previous year.

The number of unemployed went up 330 thousand from a year earlier to 3.75 million in September, and employment rose 266 thousand to 29.06 million. The non-farm sector added 531 thousand jobs, namely in industry and services while the number of construction workers declined, and the farm sector lost 264 thousand jobs. Meanwhile, the number of people detached from the labour force increased 114 thousand to 27.98 million. The participation rate went up to 54 percent in September from 53.6 percent a year ago, and the employment rate edged down to 47.8 percent from 47.9 percent.
 
The non-agricultural jobless rate went up to 13.5 percent in September from 12.8 percent in the previous year.
 
Youth unemployment rate, measuring job-seekers between 15 and 24 years old, rose to 21.6 percent from 20.0 percent in the same month a year ago.
 
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate inched up to 11.3 percent in September from 11.2 percent in August.
 
 
 


Thursday December 13 2018
Turkey Holds Key Interest Rate at 24%
Central Bank of Turkey | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

The Central Bank of Turkey held its one week repo auction rate at 24 percent on December 13th as widely expected, following a bigger-than-expected decline in November inflation. Policymakers also said that the tight monetary policy stance will be maintained until inflation outlook displays a significant improvement.

Statement by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey:

Recently released data show that rebalancing trend in the economy has become more noticeable. External demand maintains its strength while slowdown in economic activity continues, partly due to tighter financial conditions.

While developments in import prices and domestic demand conditions have led to some improvement in the inflation outlook, risks on price stability continue to prevail. Accordingly, the Committee has decided to maintain the tight monetary policy stance until inflation outlook displays a significant improvement.

The Central Bank will continue to use all available instruments in pursuit of the price stability objective. Inflation expectations, pricing behavior, lagged impact of recent monetary policy decisions, contribution of fiscal policy to rebalancing process, and other factors affecting inflation will be closely monitored and, if needed, further monetary tightening will be delivered.

It should be emphasized that any new data or information may lead the Committee to revise its stance.


Monday December 10 2018
Turkish Q3 GDP Annual Growth Weakest in 2 Years
Turkish Statistical Institute | Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

The Turkish economy grew by 1.6 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2018, slowing from an upwardly revised 5.3 percent expansion in the previous three-month period and below market expectations of 2 percent. This was the weakest growth rate since a contraction in the third quarter of 2016, as household consumption and government spending increased at a softer pace while investment fell. On the other hand, net external demand contributed positively to the expansion as a weak lira boosted exports.

On the expenditure side, household consumption increased 1.1 percent in the third quarter, after a 6.4 percent jump in Q2; and government spending went up at a softer 7.5 percent (vs 7.8 percent in Q2). In addition, fixed investment slumped 3.8 percent, following a 4.2 percent rise in the previous period. Net external demand contributed positively to the GDP growth, as exports jumped 13.6 percent (vs 4.2 percent in Q2) and imports tumbled 16.7 percent (vs 0.2 percent in Q2) due to a weak lira.
 
On the production side, services output grew at softer 4.5 percent (vs 8.9 percent in Q2), mainly due to public administration, education, human health and social work activities (10.2 percent vs 12.4 percent); financial and insurance activities (7.4 percent vs 11.8 percent); and information and communication (3.5 percent vs 7.2 percent); while professional, administrative and support service activities slumped (-7.8 percent vs -1.2 percent). Real estate expansion, however, accelerated to 2.3 percent in the three months to September from 0.2 percent in the previous period. Meanwhile, industrial production grew by just 0.3 percent (vs 4.2 percent in Q2), driven by manufacturing (0.6 percent vs 4.5 percent) and agriculture expanded by 1.0 percent, reversing a 2.8 percent fall in the previous period. Construction output shrank by 5.3 percent, following a 1.0 percent growth in the second quarter.
 
On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the economy contracted by 1.1 percent in the third quarter, following a downwardly revised 0.6 percent growth in the previous period.




Monday December 03 2018
Turkish November Inflation Rate Lower than Expected
Turkish Statistical Institute | Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

The Turkish consumer price inflation eased to 21.62 percent year-on-year in November 2018 from a near 15-year high of 25.24 percent in the prior month, and below market expectations of 22.58 percent. It was the lowest inflation rate since August mainly due to a favourable trend in oil, lira recovery and tax cuts in consumer durables, furniture and automobile introduced by the government in early November.

Inflation slowed for: food and non-alcoholic beverages (25.66 percent vs 29.26 percent in October); transportation (21.03 percent vs 32.00 percent); housing and utilities (24.76 percent vs 25.72 percent); furnishing and household equipment (32.73 percent vs 37.92 percent); hotels, cafes and restaurants (20.01 percent vs 20.06 percent); clothing and footwear (16.86 percent vs 18.45 percent); and miscellaneous goods and services (27.87 percent vs 31.50 percent). Meanwhile, prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco went up at a faster pace (2.23 percent vs 2.06 percent).
 
Annual core inflation rate, which excludes energy, food and non-alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages, tobacco and gold, dropped to 20.72 percent in November from an all-time high of 24.34 percent in the previous month.
 
On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 1.44 percent in November, following a 2.67 percent climb in October and compared to market expectations of a 0.75 percent drop. This was the first monthly decline in consumer prices since June 2017, due to decreases in costs of transportation (-6.46 percent); furnishing and household equipment (-2.85 percent); recreation and culture (-2.08 percent); miscellaneous goods and services (-0.96 percent); and food and non-alcoholic beverages (-0.74 percent).


Friday November 30 2018
Turkey Posts Smallest Trade Gap in 17-1/2 Years
Turkish Statistical Institute | Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Turkish trade gap slumped by 93.8 percent to USD 0.46 billion in October 2018 from USD 7.30 billion in the corresponding month of the previous year. It was the smallest trade deficit since April 2001 as exports rose 13 percent while imports tumbled 23.8 percent on the back of a weak lira.

Exports rose 13 percent from a year earlier to USD 15.7 billion as sales of manufactured products, which accounted for 93.7 percent of total shipments, increased 13.8 percent. Also, exports of agriculture, hunting and forestry went up 0.9 percent, while those for mining and quarrying declined 2.6 percent. Among major trading partners, exports increased mainly to Germany (0.5 percent), the UK (20.7 percent), Italy (17.9 percent), Iraq (31.1 percent), Spain (32.8 percent), the Netherlands (7 percent), Romania (9.1 percent) and Belgium (25 percent). Meantime, sales to the US were unchanged and those to France fell 0.2 percent.
 
Imports tumbled 23.8 percent to USD 16.2 billion. Purchases of intermediate goods accounted for 78.4 percent of total imports in October and dropped 17.3 percent. Additionally, imports declined for both capital (-35.0 percent) and consumption goods (-50.2 percent). Among major trading partners, imports went down mainly from Germany (-23.3 percent), China (-35.3 percent), Italy (-30.7 percent), India (-2.9 percent), Iran (-26 percent), France (-38.6 percent), South Korea (-39.4 percent), and the UK (-26.4 percent). Meanwhile, purchases from Russia went up 4 percent and those from the US rose 0.6 percent.
 
Considering the January to October period, the trade gap narrowed 15.7 percent to USD 51.6 billion as exports advanced 7.6 percent to USD 138.7 billion and imports rose at a softer 0.1 percent to USD 190.3 billion.


Thursday November 15 2018
Turkish Jobless Rate Rises to 11.1% in August
Turkish Statistical Institute | Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

The Turkish unemployment rate increased to 11.1 percent in August of 2018 from 10.6 percent in the same month of the previous year.

The number of unemployed went up 266 thousand from a year earlier to 3.67 million in August, and employment rose 490 thousand to 29.32 million. The non-farm sector added 745 thousand jobs, namely in industry and services while the number of construction workers declined, and the farm sector lost 256 thousand jobs. Meanwhile, the number of people detached from the labour force decreased 24 thousand to 27.75 million. The participation rate went up to 54.3 percent in August from 53.7 percent a year ago, and the employment rate advanced to 48.3 percent from 48 percent.

The non-agricultural jobless rate inched up to 13.2 percent in August from 12.8 percent in the previous year.

Youth unemployment rate, measuring job-seekers between 15 and 24 years old, edged up to 20.8 percent from 20.6 percent in the same month a year ago. 

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate rose to 11.2 percent in August from 11.0 percent in July.