Monday May 15 2017
Turkish Jobless Rate Rises To 12.6% In February
Turkstat | Yekaterina Guchshina | yekaterina@tradingeconomics.com

The jobless rate in Turkey increased to 12.6 percent in February of 2017, up from 10.9 percent a year earlier. Non-farm unemployment went up to 14.8 percent from 12.7 percent and youth unemployment rose to 23.3 percent from 18.6 percent.

The number of unemployed persons rose by 676 thousand to 3.900 million and employment went up by 500 thousand to 26.956 million. In addition, the labour force increased by 1.175 million to 30.855 million. There were 41 thousand less people detached from the labour force, reaching 28.712 million. 

The non-agricultural sector added 340 thousand jobs and the farm sector added 160 thousand: employment rose in services (0.3 percent) and in agriculture (0.4 percent) while fell in industry (-0.4 percent) and remained unchanged in construction.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate fell to 11.7 percent in February of 2017 from 11.8 percent in January.




Wednesday May 03 2017
Turkish Inflation Rate Highest Since 2008
Turkish Statistical Institute l Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

Consumer prices in Turkey jumped 11.87 percent year-on-year in April of 2017, following a 11.29 percent rise in the prior month. It is the highest inflation rate since October of 2008, as cost of food and transport increased at a faster pace.

Year-on-year, prices advanced at a faster pace for: food and non-alcoholic beverages (15.63 percent vs 12.53 percent in March) and transport (17.94 percent vs 17.69 percent).

Additional upward pressure came from: housing and utilities (7.53 percent vs 7.71 percent), furniture and household equipment (5.58 percent vs 5.33 percent), hotels, cafes and restaurants (9.27 percent vs 9.16 percent), clothing and footwear (5.17 percent vs 8.52 percent), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (21.65 percent vs 21.71 percent), miscellaneous goods and services (13.68 percent vs 12.51 percent), communication (4.15 percent vs 4.47 percent), recreation and culture (9.22 percent vs 9.30 percent), health (13.32 percent vs 13.28 percent) and education (9.64 percent vs 9.84 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 1.31 percent, compared to a 1.02 percent rise in March and in line with market expectations of 1.30 percent.




Friday April 28 2017
Turkish Trade Deficit Narrows In March
Turkish Statistical Institute l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Turkey's trade deficit decreased to $4.5 billion in March of 2017, compared to a $5 billion gap a year earlier. Exports increased by 13.6 percent to $14.5 billion, mainly driven by mining and quarrying, and manufacturing. Imports rose 6.9 percent to $19.0 billion, led by mining and quarrying and manufacturing. Considering the first three months the trade deficit was recorded of $12.5 billion.

Year-on-year, exports rose to $14.5 billion, mainly bosted by a 8.8  percent rise in sales of manufactured products which accounted for 94.2 percent of total sales. Among manufacturing, medium-low-technology products accounted for 30.0 percent and increased 13.5 percent; high-technology products accounted for 3.7 percent and fell 3.4 percent; while medium-high-technology products represented 32.1 percent and rose 19.7 percent. In addition shipments of agriculture, hunting and forestry went up 2.6 percent, fisheries (6.3 percent), and mining and quarrying (46.2 percent). Germany was the main export partner (9.1 percent share), followed by UAE (8.8 percent), Iraq (6.3 percent)and the United Kingdom (6 percent).
 
Imports rose to USD 19 billion, mainly due to a 3.1 percent increase in purchases of manufacturing and a 41.1 percent rise in mining and quarrying. In contrast, imports decreased for agriculture, hunting and forestry (-1.0 percent) and fisheries (-46.1 percent). Germany was the main import partner (9.4 percent share), followed by China (9.3 percent), Russia (8.4 percent) and the USA (5.0 percent).
 
On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports went up 3.7 percent from the previous month while imports increased 2.2 percent.
 
 
 
 
 




Wednesday April 26 2017
Turkey Holds Key Rate At 8%
Central Bank of Turkey | Yekaterina Guchshina | yekaterina@tradingeconomics.com

The Central Bank of Turkey held its benchmark one-week repo rate at 8 percent on April 26th, as widely expected. Also, the lending rate was kept unchanged at 9.25 percent. Policymakers said that the recently released data indicated a gradual recovery in the economic activity and domestic demand conditions displayed a moderate improvement. Meanwhile, tight stance in monetary policy will be maintained until inflation outlook shows a significant improvement.

The central bank kept its overnight borrowing rate at 7.25 percent and increased the rate at its late liquidity window to 12.25 percent from 11.75 percent.

Statement by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey:


Recently released data indicate a gradual recovery in the economic activity. Domestic demand conditions display a moderate improvement and demand from the European Union economies continues to contribute positively to exports. With the supportive measures and incentives provided recently, the economic activity is expected to gain further pace in the forthcoming period. The Committee assesses that the implementation of the structural reforms would contribute to the potential growth significantly.

Cost push pressures and the volatility in food prices in recent months have led to a sharp increase in inflation. Although the recent improvement in the risk appetite contains some of the upside pressures from cost factors, current elevated levels of inflation pose risks on the pricing behavior. Accordingly, the Committee decided to strengthen the monetary tightening in order to contain the deterioration in the inflation outlook.

The Central Bank will continue to use all available instruments in pursuit of the price stability objective. Tight stance in monetary policy will be maintained until inflation outlook displays a significant improvement. Inflation expectations, pricing behavior and other factors affecting inflation will be closely monitored and, if needed, further monetary tightening will be delivered.

It should be emphasized that any new data or information may lead the Committee to revise its stance.





Monday April 17 2017
Turkey Unemployment Rate Reaches 7-Year High
Turkstat | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

The jobless rate in Turkey increased to 13 percent in January of 2017, up from 11.1 percent a year earlier and the highest since February of 2010 when it was recorded at 13.5 percent. Non-farm unemployment went up to 15.2 percent from 13 percent and youth unemployment rose to 24.5 percent from 19.2 percent.

The number of unemployed persons rose by 695 thousand to 3.985 million and employment went up at a slower pace (397 thousand to 26.672 million). In addition, the labour force increased by 1.093 million to 30.658 million. There were 33 thousand more people detached from the labour force, reaching 28.835 million. 

The non-agricultural sector added 317 thousand jobs and the farm sector added 81 thousand: employment rose in sevices (0.6 percent) but was barely unchanged in agriculture and fell in industry (-0.4 percent) and construction (-0.2 percent).

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate fell to 11.8 percent in January from 12 percent in December of 2016.


Monday April 03 2017
Turkish Inflation Rate At Near 8-1/2 Year High In March
Turkish Statistical Institute l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Consumer prices in Turkey increased by 11.29 percent year-on-year in March of 2017, following a 10.13 percent rise in the previous month. It was the highest inflation since October 2008, as cost of food and housing went up at a faster pace.

Year-on-year, prices rose at a faster pace for: food and non-alcoholic beverages (12.53 percent from 8.72 percent in February), housing and utilities (7.71 percent from 7.42 percent).

Additional upward pressure came from: transportation (17.69 percent from 17.96 percent), hotels, cafes and restaurants (8.71 percent from 8.66 percent); furnishing, household equipment, routine maintenance of the house (5.33 percent from 4.93 percent), health (13.28 percent  from 12.53 percent), clothing and footwear (8.52 percent from 6.77 percent). communication (4.47  from 4.36 percent), recreation and culture ( 9.30 percent from 7.32 percent), education ( 9.84 percent  from 9.33 percent), micellaneous goods and services (12.51 percent  from 12.82 percent), and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (21.71  from 21.72 percent)

On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 1.02 percent, compared to a 0.81 percent rise a month earlier and above market expectations of a 0.60 percent rise.
 


Friday March 31 2017
Turkey Trade Gap Widens 15% YoY In February
Turkish Statistical Institute | Luisa Carvalho | luisa.carvalho@tradingeconomics.com

Turkey's trade deficit increased to USD 3.69 billion in February of 2017, compared to a USD 3.21 billion gap a year earlier. Exports fell 1.9 percent ,pushed down by manufacturing sales while imports rose 1.6 percent, driven by higher purchases of mining and quarrying products.

Year-on-year, exports fell to USD 12.13 billion, mainly dragged down by a 2.5 percent fall in sales of manufacturing (93.9 percent of total exports). Also shipments declined for agriculture, hunting and forestry (- 2.8 percent) and fisheries (-16 percent). In contrast, sales of mining and quarrying increased 30.3 percent. Germany was the main export partner (9.2 percent), followed by UAE (7.7 percent), Iraq (6.0 percent) and the United Kingdom (5.8 percent).

Imports rose to USD 15.82 billion, mainly due to a 42.6 percent rise in purchases of mining and quarrying. In contrast, imports declined for manufacturing (-3.1 percent); agriculture, hunting and forestry (-14.1 percent) and fisheries (-6.1 percent). China was the main export partner (10.4 percent), followed by Germany (9.1 percent), Russia (8.2 percent) and France (4.9 percent).


Friday March 31 2017
Turkey GDP Growth Beats Expectations In Q4
Turkstat | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com

The Turkish economy advanced 3.5 percent year-on-year in the last three months of 2016, recovering from a downwardly revised 1.3 percent contraction in the previous period and beating market expectations of a 2.3 percent rise. The expansion was driven by higher investment and a rebound in household spending and exports. On a quarterly basis, the economy advanced 3.8 percent.

Household spending increased 5.7 percent, recovering from a 1.7 percent fall in the previous period and gross fixed capital formation jumped 2 percent, compared to a 0.5 percent rise in the previous quarter. Exports went up 2.3 percent, rebounding from a 9.3 percent contraction in the third quarter and imports rose faster by 3.3 percent (2.1 percent in Q3). In contrast, public expenditure slowed (0.8 percent from 5.6 percent in Q3).

Considering full 2016, the GDP grew 2.9 percent, above expectations of 2.2 percent but well below 6.1 percent in 2015. Household spending (2.3 percent from 5.5 percent) and gross fixed capital formation (3 percent from 9.2 percent) slowed sharply and exports shrank 2 percent, following a 4.2 percent rise in 2015. In contrast, imports rose faster (3.9 percent compared to 1.7 percenbt) and public expenditure advanced more (7.3 percent compared to 4.1 percent). 




Thursday March 16 2017
Turkey Holds Rates Steady In March
Central Bank of Turkey | Yekaterina Guchshina | yekaterina@tradingeconomics.com

The Central Bank of Turkey held its benchmark one-week repo rate at 8 percent on March 16th, as widely expected. Also, the lending rate was kept unchanged at 9.25 percent while market expected 50 bps hike. Policymakers said that the recently released data indicated a gradual recovery in the economic activity while the significant rise in inflation is expected to continue in the short term due to lagged pass-through and the base effect in food prices.

The central bank kept its overnight borrowing rate at 7.25 percent and increased the rate at its late liquidity window to 11.75 percent from 11 percent.

Statement by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey:

Recently released data indicate a gradual recovery in the economic activity. Demand from the European Union economies continues to contribute positively to exports, while domestic demand displays a weaker course. With the supportive measures and incentives provided recently, the recovery in the economic activity is expected to continue at a moderate pace. The Committee assesses that the implementation of the structural reforms would contribute to the potential growth significantly.

Cost push pressures and the volatility in food prices in recent months have led to a sharp increase in inflation. The significant rise in inflation is expected to continue in the short term due to lagged pass-through and the base effect in food prices. Accordingly, the Committee decided to strengthen the monetary tightening in order to contain the deterioration in the inflation outlook.  

The Central Bank will continue to use all available instruments in pursuit of the price stability objective. Tight stance in monetary policy will be maintained until inflation outlook displays a significant improvement. Inflation expectations, pricing behavior and other factors affecting inflation will be closely monitored and, if needed, further monetary tightening will be delivered.

It should be emphasized that any new data or information may lead the Committee to revise its stance.

The summary of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting will be released within five working days.




Wednesday March 15 2017
Turkish Jobless Rate Rises To 12.7% In December
Turkstat | Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

The unemployment rate in Turkey increased to 12.7 percent in December of 2016, up from 10.8 percent a year earlier. It was the highest jobless rate since March 2010 as non-farm unemployment rose to 14.9 percent (2.2 percentage point increase) and the jobless rate among those aged 15 to 24 went up by 4.8 percentage points to 24 percent.

The number of unemployed persons went up by 668 thousand to 3,872 thousand while employment increased by 221 thousand to 26,669 thousand
 
The non-agricultural sector added 307 thousand jobs while the farm sector lost 88 thousand: employment decreased in agriculture (by 0.6 percentage point), industry (by 0.5 percentage point), and construction (by 0.2 percent) but rose in services (by 1 percentage point).
 
According to the distribution of employment by sector; 18.4 percent was employed in agriculture, 19.7 percent in industry, 6.9 percent  in construction, and 54.9 percent was in services.
 
In addition, the number of people in the labour force rose by 888 thousand to 30,540 thousand and those detached from the labour force decreased by 36 thousand to 28,606 thousand. The participation rate rose 0.7 percentage points from a year earlier to 51.6 percent.
 
On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment went up by 49 thousand persons and reached 3 .717 million while employment increased by 36 thousand and reached 27.301 millionpersons in December compared with the previous month.