Thursday August 15 2019
Turkish Unemployment Rate Jumps in May
Turkish Statistical Institute | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

Turkey's jobless rate rose to 12.8 percent in May 2019 from 9.7 percent in the same period of the previous year.

The number of unemployed increased 1.02 million from a year earlier to 4.16 million in May, while employment declined 869 thousand to 28.27 million. The non-farm sector lost 562 thousand jobs, mainly in the construction sector; and the farm sector lost 307 thousand jobs. Meanwhile, the number of people detached from the labour force increased 619 thousand to 28.92 million. The labour force participation rate dropped to 52.9 percent from 53.3 percent a year earlier and the employment rate went down to 46.1 percent from 48.1 percent.
 
The non-agricultural jobless rate climbed to 15.0 percent in May from 11.6 percent in the previous year.
 
Youth unemployment rate, measuring job-seekers between 15 and 24 years old, also rose sharply to 23.3 percent from 17.8 percent in the same month a year ago.
 
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate rose to 14.0 percent in May from 13.8 percent in April.




Monday August 05 2019
Turkey Annual Inflation Rate Rises to 16.65% in July
Turkish Statistical Institute | Agna Gabriel | agna.gabriel@tradingeconomics.com

Turkey’s annual inflation rate increased to 16.65 percent in July of 2019 from June’s one-year low of 15.72 percent and below market expectations of 16.9 percent, mainly due to a rise in prices of housing and utilities and transport.

Year-on-year, prices rose faster for housing and utilities (16.05 percent from 13.80 percent in June); transportation (13.67 percent from 10 percent); furniture & household equipment (25.41 percent from 22.51 percent); miscellaneous goods and services (26.93 percent from 26.88 percent) and communication (6.29 percent from 5.30 percent). On the other hand, cost slowed for food and non-alcoholic beverages (18.21 percent from 19.20 percent); hotels, cafes and restaurants (19.85 percent from 20.84 percent); clothing and footwear (4.18 percent from 4.33 percent); alcoholic beverages and tobacco (19.23 percent from 19.24 percent); recreation and culture (17.47 percent from 17.48 percent); health (17.93 percent from 19.05 percent) and education (13.68 percent from 13.87 percent). 

Annual core inflation rate, which excludes energy, food and non-alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages, tobacco and gold, advanced to 16.20 percent in July from 14.86 percent in the June. 

On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 1.36 percent, faster than a 0.03 percent gain in June and below market expectations of 1.6 percent. The sharpest increases were recorded for transportation (4.46 percent); furniture and household equipment (4.24 percent); housing and utilities (3.10 percent); recreation and culture (1.60 percent) and hotels, cafes and restaurants (1.42 percent). In contrast, prices declined for food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.11 percent) and clothing and footwear (-3.20 percent).




Wednesday July 31 2019
Turkish Trade Deficit Narrows as Exports, Imports Fall
Turkish Statistical Institute | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

Turkey's trade deficit narrowed by 42.5 percent to USD 3.18 billion in June 2019 from USD 5.53 billion in the corresponding month of the previous year

Exports slumped 14.3 percent from a year earlier to USD 11.08 billion in June, as shipments of manufactured products, which accounted for 94 percent of total sales, tumbled 14.6 percent. Also, exports of mining and quarrying declined 8.1 percent, while those of agriculture, hunting and forestry fell 9.4 percent. Among major trading partners, exports decreased mainly to Germany (-17.8 percent), the UK (-22.4 percent), Italy (-24.6 percent), Iraq (-8.3 percent), the US (-22.3 percent), Spain (-21.6 percent), Romania (-10.7 percent) and Russia (-2.1 percent). By contrast, sales rose to France (10.7 percent) and the Netherlands (41.1 percent).

Imports plunged 22.7 percent to USD 14.26 billion in June. Purchases of intermediate goods, which accounted for 77.3 percent of total imports, dropped 19.3 percent; and those of capital and consumption goods slumped 23.8 percent and 38.4 percent, respectively. Among major trading partners, imports declined from Russia (-14.3 percent), China (-30.6 percent), Germany (-33.5 percent), the US (-20.0 percent), Italy (-24.5 percent), France (-41.6 percent), India (-23.0 percent), South Korea (-30.1 percent), and the UK (-25.2 percent). In contrast, imports from the UAE increased 53.3 percent..

From January to June, the trade deficit shrank to USD 14.85 billion from USD 40.80 billion in the same period of 2018.




Thursday July 25 2019
Turkey Cuts Interest Rates by 425bps
Central Bank of Turkey | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

The Central Bank of Turkey slashed its one-week repo auction rate by 425bps to 19.75 percent during its July meeting, against market expectations of a 250bps cut, saying inflation outlook continued to improve as domestic demand conditions and the tight monetary policy continue to support disinflation. In addition, policymakers voiced concerns about rising protectionism and uncertainty regarding global economic policies.

Statement by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey:

Recently released data indicate a moderate recovery in the economic activity. Goods and services exports continue to display an upward trend despite the weakening in the global economic outlook, indicating improved competitiveness. In particular, strong tourism revenues support the economic activity through direct and indirect channels. Looking forward, net exports are expected to contribute to the economic growth and the gradual recovery is likely to continue with the help of the disinflation trend and the partial improvement in financial conditions. The composition of growth is having a positive impact on the external balance. Current account balance is expected to maintain its improving trend.

Recently, weaker global economic activity and heightened downside risks to inflation have strengthened the possibility that advanced economy central banks will take expansionary monetary policy steps. While these developments support the demand for emerging market assets and the risk appetite, rising protectionism and uncertainty regarding global economic policies are closely monitored in terms of their impact on both capital flows and international trade.

Inflation outlook continued to improve. In the second quarter, inflation displayed a significant fall with the contribution from a deceleration in unprocessed food and energy prices. Domestic demand conditions and the tight monetary policy continue to support disinflation. Underlying trend indicators, supply side factors, and import prices lead to an improvement in the inflation outlook. In light of these developments, recent forecast revisions suggest that inflation is likely to materialize slightly below the projections of the April Inflation Report by the end of the year. Accordingly, considering all the factors affecting inflation outlook, the Committee decided to reduce the policy rate by 425 basis points.

The Committee assesses that maintaining a sustained disinflation process is the key for achieving lower sovereign risk, lower long-term interest rates, and stronger economic recovery.  Keeping the disinflation process in track with the targeted path requires the continuation of a cautious monetary stance. In this respect, the extent of the monetary tightness will be determined by considering the indicators of the underlying inflation trend to ensure the continuation of the disinflation process. The Central Bank will continue to use all available instruments in pursuit of the price stability and financial stability objectives.

It should be emphasized that any new data or information may lead the Committee to revise its stance.

The summary of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting will be released within five working days.




Tuesday July 16 2019
Turkish Jobless Rate Rises to 13%
Turkish Statistical Institute | Rafael Gonzalez | rafael.gonzalez@tradingeconomics.com

Turkey’s unemployment rate rose to 13.0 percent in the March-May 2019 period from 9.6 percent in the same period of the previous year. Although, it was the lowest jobless rate since the October-December period of 2018.

The number of unemployed people rose by 1.116 million from a year ago to 4.202 million while employment dropped by 810 thousand to 28.199 million. 

The non-farm sector lost 481 thousand jobs and the farm sector lost 329 thousand. Meantime, the number of people detached from the labour force advanced by 306 thousand to 31.401 million. The labour force participation rate fell to 52.9 from 53 while the employment rate decreased to 46 percent from 47.9 percent.

The non-agricultural jobless rate increased to 15.0 percent in the March-May period from 11.4 percent in the corresponding period of 2018. 

Youth unemployment rate, measuring job-seekers between 15 and 24 years old, jumped to 23.2 percent from 16.9 percent a year earlier.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the jobless rate edged up to 13.8 percent in April from 13.7 percent in March.


Wednesday July 03 2019
Turkey Annual Inflation Rate at 1-Year Low in June
Turkish Statistical Institute | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

Turkey's annual inflation rate declined to 15.72 percent in June 2019 from 18.71 percent in the previous month and slightly below market expectations of 15.74 percent. It was the lowest inflation rate since June last year, mainly due to a slowdown in cost of food & non-alcoholic beverages, transportation and housing & utilities.

Prices eased for food and non-alcoholic beverages (19.20 percent from 28.44 percent in May); housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (13.80 percent from 14.68 percent); transportation (10 percent from 12.40 percent); furnishing, household equipment, routine maintenance of the house (22.51 percent from 24.54 percent); and clothing and footwear (4.33 percent from 4.78 percent). On the other hand, cost went up further for hotels, cafes and restaurants (20.84 percent from 19.77 percent); miscellaneous goods and services (26.88 percent from 26.75 percent); and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (19.24 percent from 19.22 percent).

Annual core inflation rate, which excludes energy, food and non-alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages, tobacco and gold, slowed to 14.86 percent in June, the lowest since last July, from 15.87 percent in May.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices advanced 0.03 percent, asfter a 0.95 percent rise in May and below market forecasts of 0.05 percent. The sharpest increases were recorded for hotels, cafes and restaurants (2.65 percent); health (2.58 percent), education (2.40 percent), miscellaneous goods and services (1.86 percent), and transportation (0.47 percent). In contrast, prices declined for food and non-alcoholic beverages (-1.65 percent), clothing and footwear (-1.57 percent), communication (-0.34 percent), and recreation and culture (-0.04 percent).


Friday June 28 2019
Turkish Trade Deficit Narrows Sharply in May
Turkish Statistical Institute | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

Turkey's trade deficit shrank by 76.5 percent to USD 1.84 billion in May 2019 from USD 7.81 billion in the corresponding month of the previous year.

Exports grew 12.1 percent from a year earlier to USD 16.0 billion in May, as shipments of manufactured products, which accounted for 94.8 percent of total sales, rose 13.4 percent. Also, exports of mining and quarrying advanced 4.3 percent, while those of agriculture, hunting and forestry fell 16.5 percent. Among major trading partners, exports increased mainly to Germany (8.3 percent), the US (29.9 percent), Iraq (14.0 percent), France (6.3 percent), the Netherlands (22.1 percent), the UAE (48.4 percent), and Israel (27.7 percent). By contrast, sales fell to Italy (-3.0 percent), the UK (-0.3 percent), and Spain (-3.0 percent).

Imports plunged 19.3 percent to USD 17.8 billion in May. Purchases of intermediate goods, which accounted for 79.1 percent of total imports, declined 16.7 percent; and those of capital and consumption goods slumped 23.5 percent and 33.6 percent, respectively. Among major trading partners, imports declined primarily from China (-21.9 percent), Germany (-19.7 percent), Italy (-24.5 percent), France (-11.6 percent), India (-16.3 percent), Iran (-33.7 percent), South Korea (-25.4 percent), and the UK (-70.8 percent). In contrast, imports increased from Russia (9.1 percent) and the US (0.1 percent).

From January to May, the trade deficit slumped to USD 11.64 billion from USD 35.28 billion in the same period of 2018.


Monday June 17 2019
Turkish Jobless Rate Rises to 14.1%
Turkish Statistical Institute | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com

Turkey’s unemployment rate fell to 14.1 percent in the February-April 2019 period from 10.1 percent in the same period of the previous year. The number of unemployed people rose by 1.334 million from a year ago to 4.544 million while employment dropped by 704 thousand to 27.795 million.

The number of unemployed people went up by 1.334 million from a year earlier to 4.544 million in the three months to April, while employment declined by 704 thousand to 27.795 million. 

The non-farm sector lost 464 thousand jobs and the farm sector lost 240 thousand. Meantime, the number of people detached from the labour force advanced by 83 thousand to 28.838 million. The labour force participation rate increased to 53.3 from 53 while the employment rate decreased to 46 percent from 47.7 percent. 

The non-agricultural jobless rate increased to 16.1 percent in the February-April period from 11.9 percent in the corresponding period of 2018. 

Youth unemployment rate, measuring job-seekers between 15 and 24 years old, jumped to 25.2 percent from 17.7 percent a year earlier.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the jobless rate rose to 13.7 percent in March from 13.6 percent in February.


Wednesday June 12 2019
Turkey Holds Policy Rate at 24%
Central Bank of Turkey | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

The Central Bank of Turkey held its one-week repo auction rate at 24 percent during its June meeting, saying that a tight monetary policy supports the disinflation process. Annual inflation fell to a nine-month low of 18.71 percent in May, easing further from October's 15-year peak of 25.24 percent after a currency crisis plunged the economy into its first recession in a decade.

Statement by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey:

Recently released data show that rebalancing trend in the economy has continued. External demand maintains its relative strength while economic activity displays a slow pace, partly due to tight financial conditions. Current account balance is expected to maintain its improving trend.

Developments in domestic demand conditions and the tight monetary policy support disinflation. In order to contain the risks to the pricing behavior and to reinforce the disinflation process, the Committee has decided to maintain the tight monetary policy stance.

The Central Bank will continue to use all available instruments in pursuit of the price stability objective. Factors affecting inflation will be closely monitored and, monetary stance will be determined to keep inflation in line with the targeted path.

It should be emphasized that any new data or information may lead the Committee to revise its stance.

The summary of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting will be released within five working days.


Monday June 03 2019
Turkish Inflation Rate Eases to 9-Month Low
Turkish Statistical Institute | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

Turkey's annual inflation rate fell to 18.71 percent in May 2019 from 19.50 percent in the previous month and below market expectations of 19.1 percent. It was the lowest rate since August last year.

Prices rose at a softer pace for: food and non-alcoholic beverages (28.44 percent vs 31.86 percent in April); housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (14.68 percent vs 15.31 percent); transportation (12.40 percent vs 12.55 percent); furnishing, household equipment, routine maintenance of the house (24.54 percent vs 27.64 percent); clothing and footwear (4.78 percent vs 5.91 percent); and miscellaneous goods and services (26.75 percent vs 27.47 percent). Meanwhile, hotels, cafes and restaurants inflation accelerated to (19.77 percent vs 19.58 percent) and alcoholic beverages and tobacco jumped 19.22 percent, following a 9.66 percent gain in April.

Annual core inflation rate, which excludes energy, food and non-alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages, tobacco and gold, eased to 15.87 percent in May, the lowest since last July, from 16.30 percent in the preceding month.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices advanced 0.95 percent in May, slowing from a 1.69 percent climb in April and also below market consensus of 1.3 percent. The sharpest price increases were recorded for alcoholic beverages and tobacco (6.77 percent), clothing and footwear (5.36 percent), furnishing and household equipment (2.65 percent), miscellaneous goods and services (1.94 percent), and food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.40 percent).