Spain | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Spain including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Spain economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 16.38 16.4 16.2 16 15.8 13.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.70 1.9 2 2.1 2 2.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -2147708.00 -2400000 -500000 -1000000 -2505024 -1800000 EUR Thousand [+]
Government Debt to GDP 99.40 97.2 95.5 95.5 95.5 89.4 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 1.18 1.16 1.15 1.13 1.12 0.99 [+]
Stock Market 10150.40 10100 9990 9890 9790 8670 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.46 1.75 1.76 1.78 1.8 1.99 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.10 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2 percent [+]
GDP 1232.09 1320 1340 1380 1173 1550 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 292541.00 291000 294000 295000 308351 316000 EUR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 60079.00 60100 62866 63866 64690 67600 EUR Million [+]
GDP per capita 31449.55 31600 32200 32200 32200 33400 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 33261.08 34000 34100 34300 34096 35900 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 7673.00 6460 7262 7276 7190 6910 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 15234.00 14200 15844 16104 16421 16900 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 37993.00 34490 38439 38539 38573 37500 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 48233.00 49760 48217 48154 48148 53400 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Services 194554.00 209330 197551 198722 199944 228230 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 62767.00 66510 63632 64049 64246 76600 EUR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 16.38 16.4 16.2 16 15.8 13.2 percent [+]
Employed Persons 19049.20 18760 18720 18780 19321 19480 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 3425.67 3510 3480 3440 3396 3250 Thousand [+]
Unemployment Change 7.26 -41.9 -42.7 -100 5.76 -21.1 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 2725.80 2950 2775 2779 2765 3410 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 16323.40 15820 16222 16459 16590 17200 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 7.90 8.2 7.9 7.7 7.32 5.7 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 38.20 37 36 35 34.69 30 percent [+]
Productivity 112.70 110 103 105 112 116 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 101.70 105 98.1 103 96.61 114 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 48.44 38.56 56.51 61.19 65.67 115 Thousand [+]
Wages 1942.01 2068 1833 1957 1800 2699 EUR/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 825.65 826 850 873 876 845 EUR/Month [+]
Population 46.53 46.53 46.56 46.56 46.56 47.21 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.42 65.42 65 65 65 65.83 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.42 65.42 65 65 65 65.83 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 58.92 60 60.1 60.2 58.86 63 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 1100.00 1660 1092 1089 1087 1840 EUR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 810.00 920 764 760 756 1200 EUR/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 1980.00 2160 2000 2003 2005 2390 EUR/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 927.00 889 935 936 937 940 EUR/Month [+]
Employment Change 0.70 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.58 0.4 percent [+]
Employment Rate 62.80 61.8 61.9 62 62.59 63.4 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.70 1.9 2 2.1 2 2.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.38 0.5 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 102.67 106 108 110 102 124 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.07 106 108 110 103 126 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 102.00 107 109 111 101 127 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.80 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.6 2.1 percent [+]
Producer Prices 109.70 117 119 119 111 137 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.80 3.4 3.8 3.6 3.2 2.4 percent [+]
Export Prices 110.90 109 110 110 109 118 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 106.70 108 109 109 106 111 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.20 1.4 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 105.49 103 103 103 103 102 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 105.26 110 112 114 104 127 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.38 -0.08 0.02 0.12 -0.19 1.25 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 888158.00 871000 890073 888752 887307 1221000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1139348.00 1420000 1141633 1140139 1138740 2200000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 1207561.00 1500000 1220086 1220963 1220634 2270000 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 2708.50 3080 3207 3388 3470 4060 EUR Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 57664.33 55698 55138 54557 53983 49342 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 478027.00 571000 437945 437945 437945 635000 EUR Million [+]
Loan Growth 0.80 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.2 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 207.94 192 191 190 194 179 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 675712.00 584000 676031 673451 669668 774000 EUR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -2147708.00 -2400000 -500000 -1000000 -2505024 -1800000 EUR Thousand [+]
Exports 23258000.00 20800000 22800000 23000000 21613077 21800000 EUR Thousand [+]
Imports -25405000.00 23200000 23300000 24000000 -19045152 23600000 EUR Thousand [+]
Current Account 2359.00 3250 1973 1751 1543 3640 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 2.20 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 104.00 104 105 106 103 114 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 1218.00 2390 2084 2077 2076 2320 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 6159.00 4812 3722 2722 2018 -640 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 3195.00 3698 2827 3154 2831 3899 EUR Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 7265.49 3940 1500 4700 6400 5150 Thousand [+]
Gold Reserves 281.58 282 286 289 291 282 Tonnes [+]
Tourism Revenues 7777.00 3906 2547 2863 3148 3076 EUR Million [+]
Terrorism Index 1.70 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.22 1.2 [+]
Weapons Sales 483.00 912 871 830 790 734 USD Million [+]
External Debt 1924551000.00 1935851000 1949936000 1954130000 1943633235 2031138000 EUR Thousand [+]
Crude Oil Production 3.00 3 3 3 3.63 3 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 99.40 97.2 95.5 95.5 95.5 89.4 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.50 -3.2 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -1.1 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -12867.00 -28600 -8500 -20800 -18870 -26400 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending 53571.00 54400 53971 54135 54231 56600 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 42.40 41.8 41.6 41.2 40.55 40.6 percent [+]
Government Debt 1137852716.00 1145000000 1158000000 1161000000 1159747181 1231000000 EUR Thousand [+]
Military Expenditure 14993.60 15268 15287 15306 15325 15520 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 2830.00 1420 950 1250 2772 1090 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 2.50 -1.2 -0.6 -0.3 -0.46 -4 [+]
Services PMI 54.40 54.4 55.2 55.4 53.68 52.4 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 56.10 53.4 54 54.5 54.28 53.2 [+]
Industrial Production 4.10 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.46 2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.60 -0.2 0.5 -0.3 0.07 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 8.20 3 2.9 2.7 3.81 2.4 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 79.07 78.3 78.83 78.78 78.66 79.6 percent [+]
New Orders 3.00 -4 -2 -1 -4.02 4 [+]
Changes in Inventories 1361.00 1007 901 854 815 680 EUR Million [+]
Bankruptcies 975.00 890 1306 1328 1314 647 Companies [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 104170.00 94200 95684 93990 93224 115500 [+]
Car Production 1883.00 1750 1676 1624 1553 1930 Hundred Units [+]
Car Registrations 112712.00 99800 113588 112953 112366 109800 Cars [+]
Internet Speed 15487.07 16250 16306 16476 16378 14463 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 14575619.00 14868946 14928034 14894526 14899944 14545293 IP [+]
Mining Production 14.60 -2.2 -0.2 0.3 1.33 1.5 percent [+]
Steel Production 1305.00 980 1221 1207 1206 1260 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Cement Production 1380.98 1120 1519 1561 1601 1660 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.70 4.68 4.76 4.76 4.68 4.82 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 34.00 32 31 31 33 29 [+]
Factory Orders 14.90 6.63 5.38 4.4 3.7 2.22 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 28.00 31 30 30 33 28 [+]
Electricity Production 21556.00 22900 23677 23744 23736 23700 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 58.00 59 60 60 57 62 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 41.00 40 39 39 37 37 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 100.50 105 106 104 95.23 103 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -1.10 -0.7 0.6 -0.4 0.03 0.3 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY -0.10 2.3 2.2 2.1 0.22 1.9 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 164920.00 174000 166005 166339 166573 190000 EUR Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 227733.00 201000 197024 228943 196951 217000 EUR Million [+]
Personal Savings 14.75 14 -1 15 2.42 12 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 655928092.00 634000000 636000000 638000000 661380293 727000000 EUR Thousand [+]
Private Sector Credit 1224980.00 1180000 1190000 1210000 716413 1650000 EUR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 1.42 2 2 2.1 2.13 3.36 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 63.20 47.71 47.71 47.71 47.71 47.71 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 102.63 103 102 101 97.38 95 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.47 1.26 1.28 1.29 1.47 1.38 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Construction Output -0.40 0.6 0.9 1 -0.18 2.1 percent [+]
Housing Index 1540.00 1562 1571 1585 1563 1832 EUR/SQ. METRE [+]
Mortgage Approvals 29388.00 24300 28090 28717 28947 32900 Units [+]
New Home Sales 7.05 6.85 6.94 7.02 8.26 12.5 Thousand [+]
Existing Home Sales 31.56 34.22 35.32 36.92 33.94 45.76 Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 0.49 1.02 1.12 1.25 3.07 2.11 Thousand [+]
Home Ownership Rate 77.80 78 77.8 77.8 78.73 76.4 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 26 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45 45 46 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 21.00 21 21 21 21 20 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 36.25 36.28 36.25 36.25 36.32 36.25 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 29.90 29.93 29.94 29.95 29.96 30.12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.35 6.35 6.35 6.35 6.34 6.35 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Temperature 8.00 9.56 12.46 16.58 13.69 11.72 celsius [+]
Precipitation 17.00 48.58 48.58 48.58 48.58 48.58 mm [+]