Spain | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Spain including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Spain economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 17.22 16.4 16.2 16 15.8 13.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.80 1.9 2 2.1 2 2.2 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -2099000.00 -2400000 -500000 -1000000 -1816935 -1800000 EUR Thousand [+]
Government Debt to GDP 99.40 97.2 95.5 95.5 95.5 89.4 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 1.18 1.16 1.15 1.13 1.12 0.99 [+]
Stock Market 10181.40 10100 9990 9890 9790 8670 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.58 1.75 1.76 1.78 1.8 1.99 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.10 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2 percent [+]
GDP 1232.09 1320 1340 1380 1173 1550 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 287262.00 291000 294000 295000 294003 316000 EUR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 57923.00 60100 59417 59668 59832 67600 EUR Million [+]
GDP per capita 31449.55 31600 32200 32200 32200 33400 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 33261.08 34000 34100 34300 34096 35900 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 6705.00 6460 6572 6537 6504 6910 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 14769.00 14200 15272 15416 15581 16900 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 37071.00 34490 37248 37230 37197 37500 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 48152.00 49760 48056 48008 47948 53400 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Services 192239.00 209330 195222 196040 196666 228230 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 61181.00 66510 61812 61889 61926 76600 EUR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 17.22 16.4 16.2 16 15.8 13.2 percent [+]
Employed Persons 18813.30 18760 18720 18780 19205 19480 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 3410.18 3510 3480 3440 3213 3250 Thousand [+]
Unemployment Change 27.86 -41.9 -42.7 -100 5.58 -21.1 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 2870.10 2950 2844 2843 2839 3410 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 15943.20 15820 15965 16183 16206 17200 Thousand [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 8.60 8.2 7.9 7.7 7.31 5.7 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 38.70 37 36 35 38.72 30 percent [+]
Productivity 105.70 110 103 105 111 116 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 101.70 105 98.1 103 96.61 114 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 44.80 38.56 56.51 61.19 65.67 115 Thousand [+]
Wages 1942.01 2068 1833 1957 1800 2699 EUR/Month [+]
Minimum Wages 825.65 826 850 873 876 845 EUR/Month [+]
Population 46.53 46.53 46.56 46.56 46.56 47.21 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.42 65.42 65.44 65.45 65.47 65.83 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.42 65.42 65.44 65.45 65.47 65.83 [+]
Employment Change 0.90 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.69 0.4 percent [+]
Employment Rate 62.04 61.8 61.9 62 61.85 63.4 percent [+]
Wages High Skilled 2110.00 2160 2058 2057 2056 2390 EUR/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 876.00 889 860 860 860 940 EUR/Month [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 58.84 60 60.1 60.2 58.71 63 percent [+]
Living Wage Family 1048.90 1660 1006 1006 1006 1840 EUR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 870.70 920 835 835 835 1200 EUR/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.80 1.9 2 2.1 2 2.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.36 0.5 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 101.83 106 108 110 102 124 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.74 106 108 110 102 126 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 101.03 107 109 111 101 127 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.20 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.6 2.1 percent [+]
Producer Prices 108.20 117 119 119 108 137 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.20 3.4 3.8 3.6 3.2 2.4 percent [+]
Export Prices 109.20 109 110 110 108 118 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 103.50 108 109 109 102 111 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.20 1.4 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 103.11 103 103 103 103 102 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 104.32 110 112 114 104 127 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.37 -0.08 0.02 0.12 -0.08 1.25 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 876075.00 871000 878774 877324 875843 1221000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1141735.00 1420000 1151233 1151130 1150423 2200000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 1196090.00 1500000 1198599 1196856 1195193 2270000 EUR Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 2683.10 3080 3207 3388 3470 4060 EUR Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 56102.19 55698 55138 54557 53983 49342 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 474988.00 571000 437713 437713 437713 635000 EUR Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 670109.00 584000 676031 673451 669668 774000 EUR Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 207.94 192 191 190 194 179 percent [+]
Loan Growth 1.20 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.84 2.2 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -2099000.00 -2400000 -500000 -1000000 -1816935 -1800000 EUR Thousand [+]
Exports 22189000.00 20800000 22800000 23000000 22982459 21800000 EUR Thousand [+]
Imports 24287800.00 23200000 23300000 24000000 24607171 23600000 EUR Thousand [+]
Current Account 2977.00 3250 1911 1692 1487 3640 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 2.20 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 105.40 104 105 106 104 114 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 1197.00 2390 2086 2080 2079 2320 EUR Million [+]
Capital Flows 7921.00 1195 1249 786 371 -991 EUR Million [+]
Remittances 3195.00 3698 2827 3154 2831 3899 EUR Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 10426.03 3940 1400 4900 6500 5150 Thousand [+]
Gold Reserves 281.58 282 286 289 291 282 Tonnes [+]
External Debt 1924551000.00 1935851000 1949936000 1954130000 1943633235 2031138000 EUR Thousand [+]
Crude Oil Production 3.00 3 3 3 3.63 3 BBL/D/1K [+]
Tourism Revenues 7807.00 3906 2547 2863 3148 3076 EUR Million [+]
Terrorism Index 1.20 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.22 1.2 [+]
Weapons Sales 483.00 912 871 830 790 734 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 99.40 97.2 95.5 95.5 95.5 89.4 percent [+]
Government Budget -4.50 -3.2 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -1.1 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -21502.00 -28600 -8500 -20800 -19787 -26400 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending 53081.00 54400 53300 53342 53352 56600 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 42.40 41.8 41.6 41.2 40.55 40.6 percent [+]
Government Debt 1137852716.00 1145000000 1158000000 1161000000 1159747181 1231000000 EUR Thousand [+]
Asylum Applications 2350.00 1420 950 1250 2259 1090 persons [+]
Military Expenditure 14993.60 15268 15287 15306 15325 15520 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 2.10 -1.2 -0.6 -0.3 -1.9 -4 [+]
Services PMI 56.70 54.4 55.2 55.4 54.92 52.4 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 54.30 53.4 54 54.5 52.97 53.2 [+]
Industrial Production 1.80 2.7 2.8 2.8 1.21 2 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.00 -0.2 0.5 -0.3 0.07 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 2.30 3 2.9 2.7 1.36 2.4 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 79.07 78.3 78.83 78.78 78.66 79.6 percent [+]
New Orders 3.00 -4 -2 -1 -4.02 4 [+]
Changes in Inventories 1483.00 900 828 809 752 670 EUR Million [+]
Bankruptcies 1457.00 890 1306 1328 1314 647 Companies [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 83291.00 94200 90796 90973 90709 115500 [+]
Car Production 558.00 1750 1620 1548 1494 1930 Hundred Units [+]
Car Registrations 111843.00 99800 108588 108103 107614 109800 Cars [+]
Cement Production 1380.98 1120 1519 1561 1601 1660 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.68 4.68 4.76 4.76 4.67 4.82 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 32.00 32 31 31 33 29 [+]
Factory Orders 4.60 2.97 2.53 2.3 2.16 1.9 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 32.00 31 30 30 44 28 [+]
Electricity Production 23038.00 22900 23677 23744 23736 23700 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 58.00 59 60 60 57 62 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 41.00 40 39 39 37 37 [+]
Steel Production 1092.00 980 1177 1182 1188 1260 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 8.60 -2.2 -0.2 0.3 -1.7 1.5 percent [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 103.20 105 106 104 97.66 103 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.10 -0.7 0.6 -0.4 0.04 0.3 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.60 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.21 1.9 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 164600.00 174000 168262 169083 169749 190000 EUR Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 227733.00 201000 197024 228943 196951 217000 EUR Million [+]
Personal Savings 14.75 14 -1 15 2.42 12 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 648282649.00 634000000 636000000 638000000 623753642 727000000 EUR Thousand [+]
Private Sector Credit 1218541.00 1180000 1190000 1210000 714171 1650000 EUR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 1.28 2 2 2.1 2.17 3.36 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 63.40 47.71 47.71 47.71 47.71 47.71 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 107.16 103 102 101 97.38 95 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.42 1.26 1.28 1.29 1.39 1.38 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Construction Output 5.40 0.6 0.9 1 0.39 2.1 percent [+]
Housing Index 1530.00 1562 1571 1585 1549 1832 EUR/SQ. METRE [+]
Existing Home Sales 33.89 34.22 35.32 36.92 33.94 45.76 Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 0.49 1.02 1.12 1.25 3.07 2.11 Thousand [+]
Home Ownership Rate 77.80 78 77.8 77.8 78.73 76.4 percent [+]
Mortgage Approvals 24863.00 24300 27096 27645 27820 32900 Units [+]
New Home Sales 7.40 6.85 6.94 7.02 8.26 12.5 Thousand [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00 25 25 25 25.96 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00 45 45.06 45 45.79 45 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 21.00 20.56 20.56 20.56 20.56 19.63 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 36.25 36.28 36.25 36.25 36.32 36.25 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 29.90 29.93 29.94 29.95 29.96 30.12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.35 6.35 6.35 6.35 6.34 6.35 percent [+]