Spain - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Spain including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Spain economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 percent
Unemployment Rate 16.38 16.2 16 15.8 15.1 13.2 percent
Inflation Rate 1.10 2 2.1 2 2.4 2.2 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade -1621000.00 -500000 -1000000 -2086943 -2100000 -1800000 EUR Thousand
Government Debt to GDP 99.40 95.5 95.5 95.5 95.5 89.4 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 1.23
1.21 1.19 1.17 1.15 1.07
Stock Market 10584.00
points
10171 9842 9525 9217 7088
Government Bond 10Y 1.39
percent
1.76 1.78 1.8 1.56 1.99
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80
percent
0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.10
percent
2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4 2
GDP 1232.09
USD Billion
1340 1380 1216 1420 1550
GDP Constant Prices 292541.00
EUR Million
294000 295000 308351 298000 316000
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 60079.00
EUR Million
62866 63866 64690 62700 67600
GDP per capita 31449.55
USD
32200 32200 32200 32200 33400
GDP per capita PPP 33261.08
USD
34100 34300 33592 34800 35900
GDP From Agriculture 7673.00
EUR Million
7262 7276 7190 6560 6910
GDP From Construction 15234.00
EUR Million
15844 16104 16421 14300 16900
GDP From Manufacturing 37993.00
EUR Million
38439 38539 38573 34670 37500
GDP From Public Administration 48233.00
EUR Million
48217 48154 48148 50960 53400
GDP From Services 194554.00
EUR Million
197551 198722 199944 216780 228230
GDP From Transport 62767.00
EUR Million
63632 64049 64246 68990 76600
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 16.38
percent
16.2 16 15.8 15.1 13.2
Employed Persons 19049.20
Thousand
18720 18780 19321 18980 19480
Unemployed Persons 3404.94
Thousand
3480 3440 3328 3390 3250
Unemployment Change -61.50
Thousand
-42.7 -100 6.68 -38.8 -21.1
Part Time Employment 2725.80
Thousand
2775 2779 2765 2970 3410
Full Time Employment 16323.40
Thousand
16222 16459 16590 16200 17200
Long Term Unemployment Rate 7.90
percent
7.9 7.7 7.32 7 5.7
Youth Unemployment Rate 37.90
percent
36 35 34.7 34 30
Productivity 112.70
Index Points
103 105 112 112 116
Labour Costs 101.70
Index Points
98.1 103 96.61 109 114
Job Vacancies 40.10
Thousand
51.22 55.66 60.18 52.47 115
Wages 1809.12
EUR/Month
1837 1955 1811 2212 2699
Minimum Wages 825.65
EUR/Month
850 850 850 850 900
Population 46.53
Million
46.56 46.56 46.56 46.56 47.21
Retirement Age Women 65.42
65 65 65 65.5 65.83
Retirement Age Men 65.42
65 65 65 65.5 65.83
Labor Force Participation Rate 58.92
percent
60.1 60.2 58.86 61 63
Living Wage Family 1100.00
EUR/Month
1094 1092 1089 1720 1840
Living Wage Individual 810.00
EUR/Month
768 764 760 1080 1200
Wages High Skilled 1980.00
EUR/Month
1998 2000 2003 2220 2390
Wages Low Skilled 927.00
EUR/Month
934 935 936 900 940
Employment Change 0.70
percent
0.6 0.5 0.58 0.5 0.4
Employment Rate 62.80
percent
61.9 62 62.59 62 63.4
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.10
percent
2 2.1 2 2.4 2.2
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00
percent
0.4 0.3 0.15 0.6 0.5
Harmonised Consumer Prices 102.74
Index Points
108 110 102 114 124
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.18
Index Points
108 110 103 117 126
Core Consumer Prices 102.03
Index Points
109 111 102 116 127
Core Inflation Rate 0.80
percent
1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.1
Producer Prices 110.20
Index Points
119 119 111 123 137
Producer Prices Change 3.10
percent
3.8 3.6 3.2 3 2.4
Export Prices 110.30
Index Points
110 110 110 114 118
Import Prices 107.30
Index Points
109 109 107 108 111
Food Inflation 1.70
percent
2.2 2.3 2.5 2.9 2.6
CPI Housing Utilities 105.65
Index Points
106 106 106 106 105
CPI Transportation 105.43
Index Points
112 114 105 117 127
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.38
percent
0.02 0.12 -0.17 0.5 1.25
Money Supply M1 904255.00
EUR Million
907886 906992 905622 994000 1221000
Money Supply M2 1145017.00
EUR Million
1146504 1145906 1144982 1740000 2200000
Money Supply M3 1216637.00
EUR Million
1229633 1232169 1232682 1820000 2270000
Banks Balance Sheet 2708.50
EUR Billion
3207 3388 3470 3630 4060
Foreign Exchange Reserves 57876.69
EUR Million
57442 56893 56317 55748 51585
Loans to Private Sector 477937.00
EUR Million
438064 438064 438064 595000 635000
Loan Growth 0.80
percent
1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.2
Private Debt to GDP 207.94
percent
191 190 201 186 179
Central Bank Balance Sheet 695027.00
EUR Million
704668 706753 705304 623000 774000
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -1621000.00
EUR Thousand
-500000 -1000000 -2086943 -2100000 -1800000
Exports 25355000.00
EUR Thousand
22800000 23000000 23389356 21200000 21800000
Imports 26976000.00
EUR Thousand
23300000 24000000 25879060 23300000 23600000
Current Account 1678.00
EUR Million
1599 1391 1205 2870 3640
Current Account to GDP 2.20
percent
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8
Terms of Trade 102.80
Index Points
105 106 102 108 114
Foreign Direct Investment -1895.00
EUR Million
1980 2030 2036 2450 2320
Capital Flows 5856.00
EUR Million
2445 1947 1328 863 -771
Remittances 2531.00
EUR Million
2709 3147 2653 3752 3899
Tourist Arrivals 4401.33
Thousand
1200 5100 6700 4250 5150
Gold Reserves 281.58
Tonnes
283 284 286 282 282
Tourism Revenues 5688.00
EUR Million
2659 2974 3179 3149 3113
Terrorism Index 1.70
1.2 1.2 1.42 1.2 1.2
Weapons Sales 483.00
USD Million
863 879 896 912 734
External Debt 1912296000.00
EUR Thousand
1949936000 1954130000 1921960018 1975330000 2031138000
Crude Oil Production 2.00
BBL/D/1K
3 3 2.89 3 3
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 99.40
percent
95.5 95.5 95.5 95.5 89.4
Government Budget -4.50
percent of GDP
-2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -1.1
Government Budget Value -18317.00
EUR Million
-8500 -20800 -19396 -28200 -26400
Government Spending 53571.00
EUR Million
53971 54135 54231 55100 56600
Government Spending to GDP 42.40
percent
41.6 41.2 41.35 41.2 40.6
Government Debt 1136170629.00
EUR Thousand
1158000000 1161000000 1144867973 1174000000 1231000000
Military Expenditure 14993.60
USD Million
15435 15379 15324 15268 15520
Asylum Applications 2830.00
persons
950 1250 2710 1370 1090
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 2.60
Index Points
-0.6 -0.3 0.46 -1 -4
Services PMI 54.60
Index Points
55.2 55.4 53.57 53.6 52.4
Manufacturing PMI 55.80
54 54.5 54.32 55.2 53.2
Industrial Production 4.20
percent
2.8 2.8 2.78 2.5 2
Industrial Production Mom 1.00
percent
0.5 -0.3 0.08 0.4 0.2
Manufacturing Production 8.20
percent
2.9 2.7 3.81 2.7 2.4
Capacity Utilization 79.07
percent
78.83 78.78 78.66 78.7 79.6
Changes in Inventories 1361.00
EUR Million
901 854 815 764 680
Bankruptcies 975.00
Companies
1135 1198 1122 985 647
Total Vehicle Sales 102943.00
99277 96934 96028 99600 115500
Car Production 2362.00
Hundred Units
2006 1675 1638 1810 1930
Car Registrations 119523.00
Cars
118477 117803 117148 102500 109800
Internet Speed 15487.07
KBps
16306 16476 16378 16302 14463
IP Addresses 14575619.00
IP
14928034 14894526 14899944 14894965 14545293
Mining Production 14.60
percent
-0.2 0.3 1.33 0.6 1.5
Steel Production 1285.00
Thousand Tonnes
1242 1218 1216 1020 1260
Cement Production 1380.98
Thousands of Tonnes
1519 1561 1601 1260 1660
Competitiveness Index 4.70
Points
4.76 4.76 4.68 4.76 4.82
Competitiveness Rank 34.00
31 31 33 31 29
Factory Orders 8.80
percent
4.92 4.09 3.51 3.09 2.19
Ease of Doing Business 28.00
30 30 34 30 28
Electricity Production 24104.00
Gigawatt-hour
23490 23771 23702 23100 23700
Corruption Index 58.00
Points
60 60 57 60 62
Corruption Rank 41.00
39 39 37 39 37
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 102.50
Index Points
106 104 97.85 106 103
Retail Sales MoM 1.30
percent
0.6 -0.4 0.04 -0.4 0.3
Retail Sales YoY 2.00
percent
2.2 2.1 1.41 2.5 1.9
Consumer Spending 164920.00
EUR Million
166005 166339 166573 180000 190000
Disposable Personal Income 193623.00
EUR Million
193441 226987 193357 207000 217000
Personal Savings -0.71
percent
-1 15 -0.09 15 12
Consumer Credit 646568769.00
EUR Thousand
636000000 638000000 636339762 663000000 727000000
Private Sector Credit 1237658.00
EUR Million
1190000 1210000 717558 1330000 1650000
Bank Lending Rate 1.55
percent
2 2.1 2.14 2.21 3.36
Households Debt To Gdp 63.20
percent of GDP
47.82 47.82 47.82 47.82 47.82
Households Debt To Income 102.63
percent
102 101 99.07 98 95
Gasoline Prices 1.49
USD/Liter
1.28 1.29 1.48 1.32 1.38
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Construction Output 0.40
percent
0.9 1 -0.4 1.5 2.1
Housing Index 1540.00
EUR/SQ. METRE
1571 1585 1563 1645 1832
Mortgage Approvals 24706.00
Units
26919 27023 27658 27300 32900
New Home Sales 7.48
Thousand
6.94 7.02 7.94 8.1 12.5
Existing Home Sales 33.10
Thousand
35.32 36.92 32.31 38.78 45.76
Housing Starts 0.39
Thousand
1.12 1.25 2.55 1.45 2.11
Home Ownership Rate 77.80
percent
77.8 77.8 78.53 77.5 76.4
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 26 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent
45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate 21.00
percent
21 21 21 21 20
Social Security Rate 36.25
percent
36.25 36.25 36 36.25 36.25
Social Security Rate For Companies 29.90
percent
29.93 29.93 29.93 29.93 30.12
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.35
percent
6.35 6.35 6.34 6.35 6.35
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Temperature 8.43
celsius
7.52 15.59 21.5 9.99 13.95
Precipitation 17.30
mm
56.62 50.1 28.18 67.31 51.68