Spain - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Spain including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Spain economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.4 percent
Unemployment Rate 16.74 15.6 15.4 15.1 14.9 13.2 percent
Inflation Rate 1.10 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.4 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade -830631.00 -1400000 -2400000 -2100000 -1400000 -1800000 EUR Thousand
Government Debt to GDP 98.30 95.5 95.5 95.5 92.6 89.4 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 1.17
1.21 1.19 1.17 1.15 1.08
Stock Market 9826.50
points
9148 8839 8540 8251 7191
Government Bond 10Y 1.47
percent
1.28 1.41 1.55 1.7 2.47
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70
percent
0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.90
percent
2.7 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.2
GDP 1232.09
USD Billion
1420 1420 1420 1510 1550
GDP Constant Prices 296207.00
EUR Million
293446 296114 303612 293177 317739
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 61277.00
EUR Million
59937 60988 62809 60107 65731
GDP per capita 31449.55
USD
32200 32200 32200 32800 33400
GDP per capita PPP 33261.08
USD
34800 34800 34800 35400 35900
GDP From Agriculture 7925.00
EUR Million
7483 7609 8123 7540 8501
GDP From Construction 15653.00
EUR Million
15205 15513 16044 15126 16791
GDP From Manufacturing 38938.00
EUR Million
38318 38543 39911 38219 41768
GDP From Public Administration 48908.00
EUR Million
48549 49075 50131 49195 52463
GDP From Services 196146.00
EUR Million
194923 197166 201050 195113 210404
GDP From Transport 62881.00
EUR Million
63185 63432 64453 62648 67452
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 16.74
percent
15.6 15.4 15.1 14.9 13.2
Employed Persons 18874.20
Thousand
19300 19410 19650 19700 20280
Unemployed Persons 3304.20
Thousand
3220 3000 2890 2750 2500
Unemployment Change -86.68
Thousand
-100 29.5 -50.8 -38.6 -32.1
Part Time Employment 2814.30
Thousand
2850 2860 2930 2890 2880
Full Time Employment 16059.90
Thousand
16450 16550 16720 16810 17400
Long Term Unemployment Rate 7.10
percent
6.2 6 5.9 5.5 4.7
Youth Unemployment Rate 35.00
percent
34.8 34.3 33.8 33.4 27
Productivity 110.40
Index Points
106 113 112 105 116
Labour Costs 105.10
Index Points
103 97.5 106 99.8 112
Job Vacancies 51.47
Thousand
57.6 48.6 42.5 58.2 51
Wages 2020.14
EUR/Month
1955 1820 2050 1845 2100
Minimum Wages 858.55
EUR/Month
859 859 859 880 920
Population 46.53
Million
46.56 46.56 46.56 46.89 47.21
Retirement Age Women 65.50
65.5 65.5 65.5 65.67 65.83
Retirement Age Men 65.50
65.5 65.5 65.5 65.67 65.83
Labor Force Participation Rate 58.46
percent
60.2 60.5 61 61.2 63
Living Wage Family 1100.00
EUR/Month
1150 1150 1150 1200 1270
Living Wage Individual 810.00
EUR/Month
950 950 950 1080 1150
Wages High Skilled 1980.00
EUR/Month
2220 2220 2220 2310 2390
Wages Low Skilled 927.00
EUR/Month
900 900 900 950 990
Employment Change 0.40
percent
0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4
Employment Rate 62.07
percent
63.2 63.4 63.6 63.7 65
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.10
percent
1.2 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.4
Inflation Rate Mom 0.80
percent
0.4 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.5
Harmonised Consumer Prices 103.36
Index Points
103 103 105 105 110
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.20
Index Points
103 103 105 105 110
Core Consumer Prices 102.18
Index Points
103 102 103 103 107
Core Inflation Rate 0.80
percent
1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.9
Producer Prices 102.30
Index Points
102 103 104 104 109
Producer Prices Change 1.90
percent
1.2 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.4
Export Prices 111.90
Index Points
111 112 112 114 118
Import Prices 108.40
Index Points
107 107 108 108 114
Food Inflation 1.60
percent
1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.2
CPI Housing Utilities 103.37
Index Points
104 105 108 106 113
CPI Transportation 106.80
Index Points
104 106 107 108 113
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.38
percent
-0.38 -0.38 -0.38 -0.13 0.37
Money Supply M1 921060.00
EUR Million
917000 925000 932000 938000 1021000
Money Supply M2 1142577.00
EUR Million
1250000 1330000 1410000 1470000 1980000
Money Supply M3 1208857.00
EUR Million
1360000 1440000 1510000 1590000 2120000
Banks Balance Sheet 2702.30
EUR Billion
2820 2890 2940 3200 4060
Foreign Exchange Reserves 57784.12
EUR Million
57713 56827 57459 57091 57224
Loans to Private Sector 460057.00
EUR Million
482000 489000 495000 501000 545000
Loan Growth 1.00
percent
1.1 1.5 1.4 1.6 2.2
Private Debt to GDP 199.00
percent
191 191 191 185 179
Central Bank Balance Sheet 711739.00
EUR Million
712000 718000 725000 729000 745000
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -830631.00
EUR Thousand
-1400000 -2400000 -2100000 -1400000 -1800000
Exports 25605526.83
EUR Thousand
24500000 23800000 22500000 27900000 23700000
Imports 26436200.00
EUR Thousand
25900000 26200000 24600000 29300000 25500000
Current Account -450.00
EUR Million
2300 2500 2800 1150 3640
Current Account to GDP 1.90
percent
1.1 1.1 1.1 1 0.8
Terms of Trade 103.20
Index Points
104 105 104 106 104
Foreign Direct Investment -1705.00
EUR Million
3200 -1600 2450 2200 2320
Capital Flows -588.00
EUR Million
1980 2200 7500 -1900 4400
Remittances 3083.00
EUR Million
3120 2420 3620 2750 3890
Tourist Arrivals 5383.69
Thousand
8720 8950 4120 5420 6150
Gold Reserves 281.60
Tonnes
282 282 282 282 282
Tourism Revenues 3209.00
EUR Million
6450 6980 3220 3820 4050
Terrorism Index 1.70
1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Weapons Sales 814.00
USD Million
820 777 733 708 628
External Debt 1918114000.00
EUR Thousand
1954132000 1961960000 1975330000 1986403000 2031138000
Crude Oil Production 2.00
BBL/D/1K
2 2 2 2 2
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 98.30
percent
95.5 95.5 95.5 92.6 89.4
Government Budget -3.10
percent of GDP
-2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -1.5 -1.1
Government Budget Value -4459.00
EUR Million
-20800 -18200 -28200 -7900 -26400
Government Spending 54127.00
EUR Million
54223 54652 55480 54668 58062
Government Spending to GDP 41.00
percent
41.2 41.2 41.2 40.9 41
Government Debt 1144298328.00
EUR Thousand
1161000000 1167000000 1174000000 1183000000 1231000000
Military Expenditure 15686.00
USD Million
15407 15532 15657 15508 15242
Asylum Applications 2830.00
persons
2250 2120 1620 1400 1090
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 5.50
Index Points
4.5 2.5 2.9 2 -4
Services PMI 55.60
Index Points
57 55.2 54.8 54.4 53.4
Manufacturing PMI 54.40
54.5 55 55.2 54.6 53.2
Industrial Production 5.10
percent
2.8 2.9 2.5 3.2 2
Industrial Production Mom 1.20
percent
-0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2
Manufacturing Production 2.90
percent
2.7 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.4
Capacity Utilization 80.20
percent
80.4 80.5 80.5 80.6 81.2
Changes in Inventories 1880.00
EUR Million
1191 1100 1045 952 727
Bankruptcies 1457.00
Companies
1420 890 1210 1120 850
Total Vehicle Sales 113816.00
134200 85900 105600 129800 119500
Car Production 2138.00
Hundred Units
2100 2250 1500 2700 1900
Car Registrations 121182.00
109400 118500 121400 107200 149800
Internet Speed 15487.07
KBps
16476 16378 16302 16216 13158
IP Addresses 14575619.00
IP
14476804 14347767 14569036 14779791 15004114
Mining Production 14.00
percent
7.5 5.1 3.2 2.2 1.5
Steel Production 1316.00
Thousand Tonnes
1290 1320 1020 1450 1260
Competitiveness Index 4.70
Points
4.7 4.7 4.7 4.76 4.82
Competitiveness Rank 34.00
34 34 34 33 32
Factory Orders 3.90
percent
4.5 4.2 4 3.8 3.2
Ease of Doing Business 28.00
27 27 27 26 25
Electricity Production 25880.00
Gigawatt-hour
23700 21900 25400 22800 25600
Corruption Index 57.00
Points
58 58 58 59 60
Corruption Rank 42.00
41 41 41 40 39
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 99.90
Index Points
103 106 104 105 105
Retail Sales MoM 0.40
percent
0.5 0.6 0.3 -0.4 0.3
Retail Sales YoY 1.90
percent
2.2 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.2
Consumer Spending 167438.00
EUR Million
166398 167225 171624 166885 179609
Disposable Personal Income 225629.00
EUR Million
236000 196000 227000 197000 241000
Personal Savings 10.28
percent
16 -1 15 -1.7 12
Consumer Credit 646733656.00
EUR Thousand
658000000 661000000 665000000 671000000 727000000
Private Sector Credit 1194731.00
EUR Million
1260000 1290000 1330000 1360000 1650000
Bank Lending Rate 1.28
percent
1.28 1.28 1.28 1.53 2.03
Households Debt To Gdp 61.80
percent of GDP
61.5 61.5 61.5 60.8 60
Households Debt To Income 102.65
percent
95.1 95.1 95.1 91.5 85
Gasoline Prices 1.57
USD/Liter
1.53 1.44 1.36 1.28 0.89
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Construction Output 17.10
percent
9.5 4.4 2.5 1.9 2.1
Housing Index 1566.60
EUR/SQ. METRE
1585 1605 1645 1678 1832
Mortgage Approvals 27945.00
Units
29980 30200 21500 29100 25100
New Home Sales 7.04
Thousand
8.25 7.51 6.12 8.15 11.51
Existing Home Sales 32.54
Thousand
37.25 32.56 28.15 36.22 34.65
Housing Starts 0.27
Thousand
0.66 0.51 0.75 0.99 1.64
Home Ownership Rate 77.80
percent
77.2 77.2 77.2 76.9 76.4
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent
45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate 21.00
percent
21 21 21 21 21
Social Security Rate 36.25
percent
36.25 36.25 36.25 36.25 36.25
Social Security Rate For Companies 29.90
percent
29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.35
percent
6.35 6.35 6.35 6.35 6.35
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature 8.43
celsius
15.59 21.5 9.99 7.54 13.95
Precipitation 17.30
mm
50.1 28.18 67.31 56.73 51.68