Russia Inflation Holds Steady in July

Russia’s annual inflation rate held at 6.0% in July 2026, matching June’s reading and remaining at its highest level since January. Motor gasoline inflation accelerated sharply to 25.9% from 19.9%, while passenger transport inflation rose to 9.1% from 6.8%, amid a severe fuel shortage as Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted refinery output. Core inflation rose to 5.2% from 5.0%, while goods inflation accelerated to 5.3% from 4.3%, driven by faster food price growth (4.4% vs 3.4%). In contrast, services inflation eased to 7.8% from 10.6%, driven by softer inflation for utilties (1.7% vs 15.1%) and housing (10.1% vs 12.1%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.5% in July, slowing from a 0.9% increase in June.

The headline inflation rate in Russia rose to 6.0% in June of 2026 from 5.3% in the previous month, the highest since January, and contrasting with most major economies that are seeing consumer inflation slow after the initial surge driven by the war in the Middle East. Inflation for motor gasoline was at 19.9% in the period, aligned with Russia's most aggressive fuel shortage since the end of the Soviet Union. The global supply shock due to export halts from the Middle East were magnified with a series of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries. In the meantime, inflation remained high for services at 10.6%. On the other hand, food inflation was low compared to other sectors of the economy, at 3.4%. From the previous month, the Russian CPI rose by 0.9%.

Russia's headline annual inflation rate fell for the second month to 5.3% in May 2026, down from 5.6% in April and below market estimates of 5.4%. This was the lowest reading since August 2023, but it remains well above the CBR’s target of 4%. Food price growth slowed to 2.9%, compared to 4% in April, as fruit and vegetable prices continued to decline (-10.4% vs -6.6%). Meanwhile, prices advanced faster for services (10.1% vs 9.9%) and non-food products (4.2% vs 3.9%). The core rate edged down to 4.9% in May from 5% in the previous month. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.2%, after a 0.1% increase in the prior month, in line with forecasts.