Russia Industrial Output Unexpectedly Falls for 2nd Month

Russia’s industrial output fell 0.9 percent in February 2026, following a 0.8 percent decline in January, missing expectations for a 1.1 percent rise. Manufacturing activity dropped 2.8 percent after a 3 percent fall the previous month, while extraction of raw materials rose 0.9 percent, up from 0.5 percent. Industrial production for the first two months of the year was down 0.8 percent. Growth in Russia’s industrial output slowed to 1.3 percent in 2025, compared with a 5.1 percent increase in 2024. The Economy Ministry forecasts a 2.3 percent rise in industrial output for 2026 and plans to update its projections in April.

Russia's industrial output climbed by 3.7% year-on-year in December 2025, after a revised 0.4% increase in November, beating analysts’ forecast of a 1% drop. This marked the strongest increase in industrial activity since December 2024, thanks to manufacturing (7.8% vs 1% in November), notably the production of other vehicles and equipment (+28.6%); tobacco products (+25.9%) and finished metal products, except machinery and equipment (+21.5%). On the other hand, output declined for mining (-2.8% vs 0.4%); electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioning supply (-0.7% vs -3.4%) and water and sanitation services (-6.2% vs -3.2%). On a monthly basis, industrial production surged by 19%, following a 2.6% slump in the prior month. Considering the full year of 2025, industrial output rose by 1.3%, down markedly from a 5.1% jump in the previous year and below the government's forecast of 1.5%.

Industrial production in Russia rose by 1.5% year-on-year in April 2025, accelerating from a 0.8% increase in March and surpassing market forecasts of a 1.1% advance. This was the fastest growth in industrial activity since January, mainly supported by manufacturing (3% vs 4% in March), largely on account of medicines, electronics, and finished metal products. Additionally, output rebounded for electricity and gas supply (2.3% vs -2.1%), but continued to decline for water and sewage services (-3.3% vs -1.4%) and extraction of raw materials (-0.1% vs -4.1%). On a monthly basis, industrial output declined by 4.2% in April, following a 9.5% jump in the previous month. Considering the first four months of 2025, Russian industrial production grew by 1.2%, down sharply from 5.1% during the same period a year ago.