Russian Industrial Output Growth Rebounds in March

Russia’s industrial output rose by 2.3% year-on-year in March 2026, rebounding from a 0.9% decline in February and surpassing market expectations of a 0.9% gain. Output rebounded for manufacturing (10.2% versus -8.4%) and increased slightly for mining (1.0% versus 0.9%). In turn, production growth slowed for the provision of utilities and air conditioning (0.1% versus 3.6%) and further decreased for water supply, sanitation, waste collection and disposal, and pollution control (-2.4% versus -2.1%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, production grew 12.4%. For the first quarter of 2026, output increased by 0.3% compared to the same period as last year.

Russia’s industrial output fell 0.9 percent in February 2026, following a 0.8 percent decline in January, missing expectations for a 1.1 percent rise. Manufacturing activity dropped 2.8 percent after a 3 percent fall the previous month, while extraction of raw materials rose 0.9 percent, up from 0.5 percent. Industrial production for the first two months of the year was down 0.8 percent. Growth in Russia’s industrial output slowed to 1.3 percent in 2025, compared with a 5.1 percent increase in 2024. The Economy Ministry forecasts a 2.3 percent rise in industrial output for 2026 and plans to update its projections in April.

Russia's industrial output climbed by 3.7% year-on-year in December 2025, after a revised 0.4% increase in November, beating analysts’ forecast of a 1% drop. This marked the strongest increase in industrial activity since December 2024, thanks to manufacturing (7.8% vs 1% in November), notably the production of other vehicles and equipment (+28.6%); tobacco products (+25.9%) and finished metal products, except machinery and equipment (+21.5%). On the other hand, output declined for mining (-2.8% vs 0.4%); electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioning supply (-0.7% vs -3.4%) and water and sanitation services (-6.2% vs -3.2%). On a monthly basis, industrial production surged by 19%, following a 2.6% slump in the prior month. Considering the full year of 2025, industrial output rose by 1.3%, down markedly from a 5.1% jump in the previous year and below the government's forecast of 1.5%.