Russia Composite PMI Highest in A Year

Russia’s S&P Global Composite PMI dropped to 48.8 in March 2026 from 50.8 in February. This marked the first contraction in private sector business activity since September 2025, dragged by renewed downturn in new orders, as the decline in manufacturing sales more than offset broadly unchanged inflows of new work in the services sector. Output fell across both sectors. Firms also reduced their staffing numbers, with job shedding reported in both manufacturing and services sectors, even as backlogs of work increased. Regarding prices, input costs and output charges rose markedly in March but at much softer rates than those seen at the start of the year following the VAT rate adjustment. Looking ahead, firms were more optimistic about output growth over the next 12 months compared with February. However, the level of confidence remained below the long-run series average.

Russia’s S&P Global Composite PMI eased to 50.8 in February 2026 from 52.1 in January, signaling only a marginal expansion in private-sector activity. Growth slowed as services output rose at a weaker pace and manufacturing production returned to contraction. New business increased at the softest rate in three months, with services seeing slower sales growth and manufacturing orders broadly unchanged. On the price front, input cost and output charge inflation moderated from January’s VAT-driven surge, though overall price pressures remained sharp and among the strongest in just over a year. Employment declined across both sectors, while business confidence stayed positive but fell to its lowest level since December 2022 amid softer expectations among manufacturers and service providers.

Russia’s S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 52.1 in January 2026 from 50.0 in December, marking the highest level since January 2025 and signaling a renewed expansion in private-sector activity. The contraction in manufacturing output eased, while services activity accelerated further. New orders increased at the fastest pace in a year, as a softer decline in manufacturing demand coincided with stronger growth in services' new business. Employment levels were broadly stable overall. On the price front, a recent increase in the VAT rate pushed up cost burdens for both manufacturers and service providers, leading to a sharper rise in input costs and output charges compared with December. Price pressures remained historically elevated across both sectors. Looking ahead, business confidence improved in manufacturing and services, supported by expectations of stronger demand and improving operating conditions.