Russia Private Sector Growth Cools in February

Russia’s S&P Global Composite PMI eased to 50.8 in February 2026 from 52.1 in January, signaling only a marginal expansion in private-sector activity. Growth slowed as services output rose at a weaker pace and manufacturing production returned to contraction. New business increased at the softest rate in three months, with services seeing slower sales growth and manufacturing orders broadly unchanged. On the price front, input cost and output charge inflation moderated from January’s VAT-driven surge, though overall price pressures remained sharp and among the strongest in just over a year. Employment declined across both sectors, while business confidence stayed positive but fell to its lowest level since December 2022 amid softer expectations among manufacturers and service providers.

Russia’s S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 52.1 in January 2026 from 50.0 in December, marking the highest level since January 2025 and signaling a renewed expansion in private-sector activity. The contraction in manufacturing output eased, while services activity accelerated further. New orders increased at the fastest pace in a year, as a softer decline in manufacturing demand coincided with stronger growth in services' new business. Employment levels were broadly stable overall. On the price front, a recent increase in the VAT rate pushed up cost burdens for both manufacturers and service providers, leading to a sharper rise in input costs and output charges compared with December. Price pressures remained historically elevated across both sectors. Looking ahead, business confidence improved in manufacturing and services, supported by expectations of stronger demand and improving operating conditions.

Russia’s S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 50.0 in December 2025, little changed from 50.1 in the previous month, pointing to broad stagnation in private-sector activity. A deeper contraction in manufacturing output was largely offset by a faster expansion in services activity, leaving overall growth flat. New orders rose modestly, increasing for the first time since May, supported mainly by improving demand conditions in the services sector. Despite this, firms across both manufacturing and services continued to reduce headcounts, reflecting ongoing caution toward the outlook. Still, capacity pressures persisted, as evidenced by a faster accumulation of backlogs of work. On the cost front, input price pressures intensified in manufacturing, while a much softer increase in services costs helped restrain overall inflation. Meanwhile, firms reported a slower pace of price increases, with output charges easing across both goods producers and service providers.