The economy of Puerto Rico grew 15.5 percent year-on-year in October 2018, after a 5.2 percent advance in the previous month. It is the second annual rise after 69 consecutive months of contraction and the strongest so far. The expansion was mainly due to a low base effect when compared to October 2017, following the destruction wreaked by Hurricanes Irma and Maria. In October, cement sales increased by 132.4 percent and electric power generation rose 420 percent compared with the same month last year. Also, gasoline consumption, went up 4.2 percent and non-farm salaried employment increased by 2.1 percent. Leading Economic Index in Puerto Rico averaged 0.49 percent from 1981 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 15.50 percent in October of 2018 and a record low of -19.70 percent in November of 2017.
Leading Economic Index in Puerto Rico is expected to be 18.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Puerto Rico to stand at 4.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Puerto Rico Economic Activity YoY is projected to trend around 2.60 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.