Poland Manufacturing Activity Returns to Expansion

Poland’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 50 in October 2026 from 49 in September, returning to the expansion threshold after seventeen consecutive months of contraction and signalling a potential turning point in the sector’s prolonged downturn. The improvement was supported by renewed growth in employment and export orders, while output remained broadly stable and the decline in new orders slowed to its weakest pace since October 2025. Employment increased for only the second time in 18 months, and manufacturers raised purchasing for the first time in five months. However, input price inflation accelerated to its highest level since June, driven by higher raw material, transport and energy costs, as well as geopolitical tensions. Factory gate prices continued to rise, but at a slightly slower pace. Business confidence remained positive, supported by expectations of stronger orders, new customers and improving market conditions, although sentiment eased from September.

Poland's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.0 in September 2026 from 48.3 in August, but remained below the 50.0 threshold for a 17th straight month, signaling a continued deterioration in factory conditions. Output, new orders and employment all declined at slower rates, although new work fell for an 18th consecutive month. New export orders dropped for a 10th month and at a faster pace, while manufacturing output declined for the 15th time in 17 months. Employment fell for a 16th time in 17 months, though the rate of job shedding was only marginal. Backlogs declined for an eighth month but at the slowest pace in the sequence, while stocks of finished goods rose slightly. Meanwhile, input price inflation eased for the fourth time in five months but remained elevated, while output price inflation accelerated slightly. Supply chains remained under pressure, though delivery times lengthened less than in August. Lastly, business confidence improved to its highest since May.

Poland's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 in August 2026 from 49.0 in July, missing forecasts for a rise to 49.6 and signaling a steeper deterioration in factory activity. Output and new orders declined at faster rates, with new work falling for the 17th straight month amid weaker demand and increased competition from mainland China. New export orders also fell for a ninth consecutive month, albeit modestly. Employment declined after rising in July, while purchasing activity fell for the sixth time this year. Supplier delivery times lengthened at their fastest pace since June 2022 amid production delays and transport issues. Meanwhile, input cost inflation accelerated for the first time in four months, while output price inflation eased to a six-month low. Despite weaker activity, business confidence improved, with the Future Output Index recording its biggest monthly rise of 2026 so far, supported by expectations of new contracts and improved market conditions.