Poland Manufacturing Downturn Eases in July

Poland's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.0 in July 2026 from 46.1 in June, signaling a softer deterioration in factory activity. Output and new orders continued to decline, although at much slower rates, while export orders fell to the weakest pace since January. Employment increased for the first time since April 2025 as firms expanded capacity in anticipation of stronger production, though hiring remained modest. Purchasing activity declined for a third straight month as manufacturers continued to reduce previously accumulated input stocks, while supplier delivery delays eased to their least severe since before the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, input cost inflation slowed to its weakest pace since February, with output price inflation easing to a four-month low. Business confidence improved from June's 42-month low, supported by expectations of stronger orders, new projects, competitive pricing, and government and EU support programs.

Poland’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.1 in June 2026 from 49.4 in May, defying expectations of an improvement to 49.7 and marking the sharpest deterioration in factory activity since July 2025. The decline was driven by the steepest drop in new orders in a year, reflecting weaker demand, slower economic activity, difficulties attracting new customers, high client inventories, and tighter customer budgets. Export orders also fell at the fastest pace since July 2025, pushing manufacturing output back into contraction at the quickest rate in 11 months. Employment and purchasing activity declined further, while inventories of finished goods rose as unsold stock accumulated. Inflationary pressures eased, with both input cost and output price inflation slowing to three-month lows despite continued increases in raw material, energy, transport, and packaging costs. Business confidence weakened to its lowest level since late 2022.

Poland’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4 in May 2026, above market expectations of 48.6 but remaining below the 50 threshold, signaling a continued contraction in factory activity for the thirteenth consecutive month, albeit at the slowest pace. The improvement was mainly driven by higher output, supported by tentative signs of a recovery in market conditions, improved availability of certain raw materials, and the opening of new stores. Production expanded for the second time in the past three months despite a fourteenth straight decline in new orders, as demand remained constrained by economic and geopolitical uncertainty and elevated customer inventories. Export orders also fell, though only modestly. Input price inflation eased from April’s near four-year high but remained elevated due to higher raw material, transport, and energy costs. Business confidence stayed positive, supported by expansion plans, new products, and entry into new markets.