Polish Manufacturing Downturn Softens in May

Poland’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4 in May 2026, above market expectations of 48.6 but remaining below the 50 threshold, signaling a continued contraction in factory activity for the thirteenth consecutive month, albeit at the slowest pace. The improvement was mainly driven by higher output, supported by tentative signs of a recovery in market conditions, improved availability of certain raw materials, and the opening of new stores. Production expanded for the second time in the past three months despite a fourteenth straight decline in new orders, as demand remained constrained by economic and geopolitical uncertainty and elevated customer inventories. Export orders also fell, though only modestly. Input price inflation eased from April’s near four-year high but remained elevated due to higher raw material, transport, and energy costs. Business confidence stayed positive, supported by expansion plans, new products, and entry into new markets.

Poland’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI edged up to 48.8 in April 2026 from 48.7 in March, surpassing market expectations of 48.6 but remaining below the 50 threshold, signaling a twelfth straight month of deteriorating business conditions. It was weighed down by a faster decline in new orders, which fell for the thirteenth consecutive month amid weak demand and heightened uncertainty over supply chains and shortages linked to the Middle East conflict. Output declined, marking its eleventh contraction in the past year, though the pace was mild. Meanwhile, cost pressures surged, with input prices rising at the fastest rate since May 2022 due to higher raw material and transport costs. Firms passed these increases on, lifting output prices at the quickest pace since June 2022. Firms built up inventories and faced longer delivery times, while employment fell for the twelfth straight month. Manufacturers remained cautiously optimistic, though confidence slipped to a five-month low.

Poland’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.7 in March 2026 from 47.1 in February, surpassing market expectations of 47.1, and pointing to a slower deterioration in business conditions. The improvement was supported by an increase in manufacturing output, the first rise since April 2025, and softer declines in new orders and input stocks. In contrast, new orders continued to fall for the twelfth consecutive month. Employment also contracted for the eleventh month in a row, with the rate of staff reductions accelerating to the fastest since September 2023. Cost pressures surged sharply, fueled by higher energy, fuel, and commodity prices linked to the Middle East conflict. Input price inflation reached its highest since October 2022, while suppliers’ delivery times lengthened to the greatest extent since June 2022. Looking ahead, firms remained cautiously optimistic, expecting demand to recover and planning investments in production capacity and new client acquisition.