Poland GDP Rises 3.8% in Q2, Matching Expectations

Poland’s economy expanded by 3.8% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, in line with market forecasts, following a 3.5% growth in the first quarter, according to preliminary estimates. The growth was likely supported by a temporary easing in energy price pressures toward the end of the quarter following the interim US-Iran deal. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP rose 0.9%, following a 0.6% increase in the previous period but falling short of market expectations for a 1.0% growth.

The Polish economy expanded by 3.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, slightly above preliminary estimates but slowing from an over three-year high of 4.1% in the previous quarter. Growth in domestic demand was 3.7%, down from 4.6% in Q4 2025, driven by household consumption (3.3% vs 4.3%) and public spending (6.0% vs 7.7%). Gross fixed capital formation also lost momentum (2.4% vs 6.6%). Moreover, net exports weighed on growth as imports rose 6.1%, while exports increased by a smaller 5.6%. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the economy grew 0.6% in Q1 2026, slightly above preliminary estimates but easing from 1.0% in the previous period and marking the weakest expansion since the contraction recorded in the third quarter of 2024.

The Polish economy grew by 3.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, slowing from a revised 4.1% in the previous quarter. This marked the weakest expansion since the second quarter of 2025, as growth momentum has been gradually downgraded amid persistent inflationary pressures, elevated energy costs, and tighter fiscal conditions weighing on activity. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP edged down to 0.5% in the first quarter of 2026 from 1% growth in the previous quarter, the weakest reading since the third quarter of 2024.