The retail price index in the Philippines increased by 3.8 percent year-on-year in November of 2018, slowing from a 4.0 percent rise in the previous month and reaching the weakest reading since February. Cost rose at a softer pace for: beverages and tobacco (12.0 pct vs 12.2 pct in October); mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (13.8 pct vs 22.1 pct); and machinery and transport equipment (1.7 pct vs 1.9 pct). At the same time, prices of manufactured goods classified chiefly by materials went up 2.1 percent, the same as in a month earlier. Meantime, cost increased faster for: food (4.5 pct vs 4.3 pct); crude materials, inedible except duels (3.0 pct vs 2.7 pct); chemicals, including animal and vegetable oils and fats (1.3 pct vs 1.1 pct); and miscellaneous manufactured articles (1.4 pct vs 1.2 pct). On a monthly basis, the retail price index declined by 0.2 percent, after a 0.1 percent drop in October. Retail Sales Yoy in Philippines averaged 7.49 percent from 1980 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 79.50 percent in September of 1984 and a record low of -3.13 percent in November of 1999.
Retail Sales Yoy in Philippines is expected to be 4.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales Yoy in Philippines to stand at 3.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Philippines Retail Price Index YoY is projected to trend around 4.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.