Philippines | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

Despite slower-than-expected first quarter GDP growth, the Philippines' economy is expected to advance 6.5-6.8 percent this year, amid a recovery in external trade, strong consumer spending, and investment. Also, government spending is estimated to rise, supported by the implementation of big infrastructure projects. Furthermore, overseas remittances will remain resilient, with an improved global economic outlook. Inflation is forecasted to stay within the Central bank's target range of 3 percent ± 1 percent for 2017-2018. Meanwhile, inflation risks remain elevated due to the proposed tax reform program and possible adjustments in transportation fares and electricity rates. The unemployment rate is expected to be higher this year, mainly due to typhoons that affected the agriculture sector and to the temporary nature of election-related jobs which increased last year. This page has economic forecasts for Philippines including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Philippines economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.9 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.70 6.4 6.2 6 6.4 6.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.10 2.7 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 3.00 3 3.25 3.5 3.5 5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -2052044.87 -1887500 -2500000 -2955200 -2930000 -2440000 USD Thousand [+]
Government Debt to GDP 42.10 44 44 44 43 39 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 50.34 49.96 50.46 51.94 51.45 59.36 [+]
Stock Market 7814.17 7880 7810 7570 7650 6370 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 4.63 4.71 4.75 4.8 4.85 5.59 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.9 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.40 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.5 percent [+]
GDP 292.45 318 318 318 335 365 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2105290.00 2140661 2170253 2210102 2208472 2647181 PHP Million [+]
Gross National Product 2522142.00 2550000 2580000 2630000 2660000 2950000 PHP Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 609964.37 602000 627000 716000 682000 926000 PHP Million [+]
GDP per capita 2639.90 2860 2860 2860 2970 3170 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 6938.21 7680 7680 7680 7910 8400 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 153711.86 140000 133000 179000 159600 200000 PHP Million [+]
GDP From Construction 179941.13 237000 214000 232000 188300 286000 PHP Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 493645.75 484000 446000 563000 513801 664000 PHP Million [+]
GDP From Mining 18842.65 24000 14500 16000 18900 16100 PHP Million [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 73500.67 92073 80000 87000 77812 94000 PHP Million [+]
Gdp From Services 1141072.00 1213199 1135111 1205936 1133145 1172409 PHP Million [+]
GDP From Transport 66825.72 76700 62500 66700 71800 80500 PHP Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 60817.99 74000 78000 67100 61679 74000 PHP Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.70 6.4 6.2 6 6.4 6.3 percent [+]
Employed Persons 40271.00 40800 41100 41500 40500 43700 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 2443.00 2800 2500 2300 2900 2700 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.40 61.2 62 62.8 61.8 64 percent [+]
Job Vacancies 199942.00 257000 186461 190461 186461 306461 [+]
Wages 8280.00 8410 8700 8530 8585 10300 PHP/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 1538.90 1660 1690 1650 1250 2020 Index Points [+]
Population 103.90 106 106 106 107 110 Million [+]
Employment Rate 94.30 93.6 93.8 94 93.6 94.3 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.10 2.7 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 147.90 148 149 151 152 167 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 143.80 144 145 146 148 160 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.90 2.6 2.7 3 3.2 3.7 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 177.91 179 185 192 186 212 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 132.28 134 135 138 140 161 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -2.00 2.5 3.3 3.6 2.8 2.8 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 133.20 133 134 135 135 143 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 3.80 3.6 3.9 3.7 3 3.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 103.71 101 102 112 109 119 Price Index [+]
Cpi Transportation 131.40 133 135 135 136 148 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 116.65 116 114 117 118 128 Price Index [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 3.00 3 3.25 3.5 3.5 5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 899756.40 920000 940000 1050000 980000 1430000 PHP Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3173319.87 3221421 3321324 3417913 3514258 4558287 PHP Million [+]
Money Supply M2 9171016.46 9318344 9518287 9722938 9792193 12129883 PHP Million [+]
Money Supply M3 9521175.61 9671464 9879579 10091792 10100043 12589278 PHP Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 82066.00 82000 82900 83600 84500 101000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 1074.00 1080 1090 1100 1170 1430 PHP Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 1.60 3 3 3 3 5 percent [+]
Loans To Banks 224835.96 275000 257400 279000 281000 384000 PHP Million [+]
Loans To Private Sector 5515852.32 5623307 5789875 5956460 6122957 7160000 PHP Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4559.10 4600 4690 4710 4770 5090 PHP Billion [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -2052044.87 -1887500 -2500000 -2955200 -2930000 -2440000 USD Thousand [+]
Exports 4805401.73 5462500 5310000 5064800 5730000 6290000 USD Thousand [+]
Imports 6857446.60 7350000 7810000 8020000 8660000 8730000 USD Thousand [+]
Current Account -490.62 328 78 1420 -80 589 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 0.20 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 1 percent [+]
External Debt 76621.97 80500 81500 82500 78887 83325 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows 2.41 15 12 14 8 16 USD Million [+]
Remittances 2083000.00 2700000 2680000 2780000 2900000 3340000 USD Thousand [+]
Tourist Arrivals 574065.00 487000 450145 600000 560000 831000 [+]
Gold Reserves 196.35 197 196 197 196 205 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 7.10 7.38 6.89 7.4 6.79 7.4 [+]
Crude Oil Production 15.00 24 25 27 14.8 40 BBL/D/1K [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 22883.30 52000 61000 162000 36308 197000 PHP Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 42.10 44 44 44 43 39 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.40 -3 -3 -3 -2.8 -2.7 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -33421.00 -76000 -80000 -98000 -74000 -87000 PHP Million [+]
Government Spending 207409.12 260000 208000 182000 212000 212000 PHP Million [+]
Government Revenues 228251.00 200000 194300 210000 200000 245000 PHP Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 261672.00 245000 260000 308000 254000 332000 PHP Million [+]
Military Expenditure 3989.80 4741 4741 4741 5200 6200 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 43.00 41 40 42 43 50 [+]
Industrial Production 3.70 7.8 6.4 0.8 3.2 5.3 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 83.69 83.3 83.5 83.7 83.5 83.9 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -2195.95 -1730 7200 12546 -3870 5176 PHP Million [+]
Car Registrations 103576.00 128000 130000 138000 145000 155000 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.04 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 54.30 53.1 54.5 53.8 51.9 54.4 [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 11690.00 13020 13780 14100 13200 21450 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.36 4.41 4.41 4.39 4.36 4.36 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 57.00 43 43 52 59 37 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 99.00 95 95 95 90 83 [+]
Corruption Index 35.00 40 40 40 43 51 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 101.00 85 85 85 82 69 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 13.10 5.8 6.1 7.5 8.2 7 [+]
Retail Sales Yoy 3.90 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.8 4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1455678.00 1580000 1500000 1520000 1520000 1780000 PHP Million [+]
Personal Savings 4044437.77 4097429 4169889 4246044 4321319 5071370 Million PHP [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.77 5.2 5.25 5.5 5.7 6.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales Mom 0.10 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.21 0.1 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 247.46 243 246 263 272 346 PHP Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.87 0.9 0.85 0.92 0.84 1.2 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 9605.00 9380 10820 12200 10000 14000 PHP/SQ. METRE [+]
Building Permits 35101.00 43200 38900 37700 45620 43900 [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 30 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 32.00 32 32 32 32 32 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 11.36 11.36 11.36 11.36 11.36 11.36 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.67 7.67 7.67 7.67 7.67 7.67 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 3.69 3.69 3.69 3.69 3.69 3.69 percent [+]