Philippines | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

Despite slower-than-expected first quarter GDP growth, the Philippines' economy is expected to advance 6.5-6.8 percent this year, amid a recovery in external trade, strong consumer spending, and investment. Also, government spending is estimated to rise, supported by the implementation of big infrastructure projects. Furthermore, overseas remittances will remain resilient, with an improved global economic outlook. Inflation is forecasted to stay within the Central bank's target range of 3 percent ± 1 percent for 2017-2018. Meanwhile, inflation risks remain elevated due to the proposed tax reform program and possible adjustments in transportation fares and electricity rates. The unemployment rate is expected to be higher this year, mainly due to typhoons that affected the agriculture sector and to the temporary nature of election-related jobs which increased last year. This page has economic forecasts for Philippines including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Philippines economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.9 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 5.60 6 6.4 6.5 5.8 6.3 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 3.40 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 percent [+]
Interest Rate 3.00 3 3.25 3.25 3.5 4 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -2411000.00 -2955200 -2930000 -2158000 -1190929 -2440000 USD Thousand [+]
Government Debt to GDP 42.10 44 43 43 47.65 39 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 51.49 50.73 50.22 49.7 49.19 43.55 [+]
Stock Market 8420.95 8230 8140 8060 7980 7060 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 4.64 4.68 4.72 4.77 4.82 5.32 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.70 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.9 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.50 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.5 6.5 percent [+]
GDP 304.90 318 335 335 315 365 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 2146176.00 2210102 2229129 2252938 2274687 2647181 PHP Million [+]
Gross National Product 2582445.00 2630000 2660000 2690000 2763241 2950000 PHP Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 579458.90 716000 682000 662000 585107 926000 PHP Million [+]
GDP per capita 2753.30 2860 2970 2970 2889 3170 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 7236.50 7680 7910 7910 7725 8400 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 146054.68 179000 159600 147000 127685 200000 PHP Million [+]
GDP From Construction 240706.14 232000 188300 244000 194514 286000 PHP Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 497590.14 563000 513801 504000 445709 664000 PHP Million [+]
GDP From Mining 30228.10 16000 18900 24500 17150 16100 PHP Million [+]
Gdp From Public Administration 94748.36 87000 73522 95000 77233 94000 PHP Million [+]
Gdp From Services 1288680.00 1298082 1183884 1288815 1180136 1257578 PHP Million [+]
GDP From Transport 76024.16 66700 71800 80800 63631 80500 PHP Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 71442.39 67100 61719 70162 74245 74000 PHP Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.60 6 6.4 6.5 5.8 6.3 percent [+]
Employed Persons 40170.00 41500 40500 41000 40201 43700 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 2373.00 2300 2900 2700 2448 2700 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.60 62.8 61.8 62.1 60.87 64 percent [+]
Wages 8280.00 8530 8585 8640 8695 10300 PHP/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 1207.75 1650 1250 1770 1554 2020 Index Points [+]
Population 103.90 106 107 107 107 110 Million [+]
Employment Rate 94.40 94 93.6 93.8 94.19 94.3 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 3.40 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.62 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 149.50 151 152 152 152 167 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 145.40 146 148 148 149 160 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 3.30 3 3.2 3.3 3.95 3.7 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 177.82 192 186 186 179 212 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 132.80 138 140 143 132 161 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -0.30 0.6 1.5 2.9 3 2.8 percent [+]
Food Inflation 3.60 3.7 3 3.8 4.85 3.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 92.36 112 109 109 92.4 119 Price Index [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 133.90 135 136 136 136 135 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 133.80 135 136 136 135 148 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 112.73 117 118 118 113 128 Price Index [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 3.00 3 3.25 3.25 3.5 4 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 910258.02 1050000 980000 980000 902042 1430000 PHP Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3303676.84 3354027 3363264 3365331 3364919 3350378 PHP Million [+]
Money Supply M2 9690852.14 9895818 9792193 9792193 9963686 9913183 PHP Million [+]
Money Supply M3 10077240.08 10305007 10100043 10100043 10384210 10334140 PHP Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 81346.00 83600 84500 86200 85872 101000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 1107.70 1100 1170 1170 1092 1430 PHP Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 1.59 3 3 4 2.55 5 percent [+]
Loans To Banks 210171.65 279000 281000 281000 196225 384000 PHP Million [+]
Loans To Private Sector 5838415.42 5998251 6031433 6016888 5971001 7160000 PHP Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4750.31 4710 4770 4770 4860 5090 PHP Billion [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -2411000.00 -2955200 -2930000 -2158000 -1190929 -2440000 USD Thousand [+]
Exports 5506830.00 5064800 5730000 5780000 5293373 6290000 USD Thousand [+]
Imports 7918000.00 8020000 8660000 7938000 7515719 8730000 USD Thousand [+]
Current Account 377.00 1420 -80 -80 56.9 589 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 0.20 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.06 1 percent [+]
External Debt 76621.97 82500 75837 75651 75465 73811 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows 15.00 14 8 10 8.62 16 USD Million [+]
Remittances 2500000.00 2780000 2900000 2950000 2405468 3340000 USD Thousand [+]
Tourist Arrivals 474854.00 600000 560000 560000 484700 831000 [+]
Gold Reserves 196.35 197 196 196 196 205 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 7.10 7.4 6.75 6.72 6.69 7.4 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 18160.60 162000 31176 26844 28943 197000 PHP Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 15.00 27 15.81 15.79 15.77 40 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 42.10 44 43 43 47.65 39 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.40 -3 -2.8 -2.8 -2.71 -2.7 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 28800.00 -98000 -74000 -31000 -7677 -87000 PHP Million [+]
Government Spending 272477.33 182000 212000 267000 226937 212000 PHP Million [+]
Government Revenues 230400.00 210000 200000 220000 204608 245000 PHP Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 201600.00 308000 254000 251000 228826 332000 PHP Million [+]
Military Expenditure 3989.80 4741 5200 5200 3836 6200 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 37.90 42 43 45 30.64 50 [+]
Industrial Production 2.40 0.8 3.2 4.8 7.71 5.3 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 83.83 83.7 83.5 83.5 83.11 83.9 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -4985.19 9573 -1003 -3315 -8871 -132 PHP Million [+]
Car Registrations 103576.00 138000 145000 150000 96504 155000 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 0.04 0.1 0.3 -0.1 0 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Pmi 50.80 53.8 51.9 51.9 54.13 54.4 [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 10516.00 14100 13200 13200 10670 21450 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.35 4.32 4.32 4.32 4.32 4.19 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 56.00 63 63 63 63 37 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 99.00 95 90 90 104 83 [+]
Corruption Index 35.00 40 43 43 30 51 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 101.00 85 82 82 111 69 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 10.20 7.5 8.2 6.7 2.69 7 [+]
Retail Sales Yoy 3.30 3.6 3.8 4 6.13 4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 1480727.00 1520000 1520000 1570000 1569674 1780000 PHP Million [+]
Personal Savings 4262329.53 4333756 4345145 4344559 4339088 4263177 Million PHP [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.67 5.5 5.7 5.9 7.5 6.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales Mom 0.30 0.1 0.55 0.56 0.56 0.1 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 264.00 263 272 280 277 346 PHP Billion [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.95 0.92 0.96 0.96 0.96 1.2 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 9605.00 12200 10000 10500 10420 14000 PHP/SQ. METRE [+]
Building Permits 35983.00 37700 45620 45620 34108 43900 [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30.55 30.68 30.8 30.93 31.66 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 32.00 32 32 32 32 32 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 12.00 11.79 11.79 11.8 11.8 11.84 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 11.36 11.36 11.07 11.02 10.98 11.36 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.67 7.67 7.44 7.42 7.39 7.67 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 3.69 3.69 3.58 3.56 3.54 3.69 percent [+]