Philippines - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Philippines including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Philippines economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.50 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.7 1.2 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.30 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 6.3 percent
Inflation Rate 4.50 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.5 2.8 percent
Interest Rate 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.5 4 percent
Balance of Trade -2607850.00 -2158000 -2516105 -3052000 -2596613 -2440000 USD Thousand
Government Debt to GDP 42.10 41.4 41.4 41 40 39 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 52.31
52.65 53.24 53.83 54.42 56.88
Stock Market 7646.20
points
7739 7489 7247 7013 6150
Government Bond 10y 6.87
percent
6.6 7.33 8.13 9.02 13.67
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.50
percent
1.4 1.7 1.3 1.7 1.2
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.80
percent
6.6 6.5 6.6 7 6.5
GDP 304.90
USD Billion
315 315 315 320 330
GDP Constant Prices 2253539.00
PHP Million
2220485 2256822 2292380 2411287 2602516
Gross National Product 2694630.00
PHP Million
2665632 2713576 2738643 2883254 3109154
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 678002.38
PHP Million
592716 624010 707128 725463 802795
GDP per capita 2753.30
USD
2970 2970 2970 3063 3170
GDP per capita PPP 7236.50
USD
7910 7427 7910 8280 8400
GDP From Agriculture 157444.22
PHP Million
150886 138275 185759 168465 210890
GDP From Construction 195843.19
PHP Million
238338 209542 236036 209552 267969
GDP From Manufacturing 533765.45
PHP Million
514308 486589 598677 571129 679672
GDP From Mining 20186.99
PHP Million
32755 17968 18379 21600 20865
Gdp From Public Administration 83102.42
PHP Million
98488 84547 95661 88920 108603
Gdp From Services 1219503.00
PHP Million
1336045 1271232 1359104 1304868 1542977
GDP From Transport 70380.05
PHP Million
78487 59730 65707 75307 74596
GDP From Utilities 64856.80
PHP Million
74058 81371 69003 69397 78338
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.30
percent
5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 6.3
Employed Persons 41755.00
Thousand
41000 41061 41300 41968 43700
Unemployed Persons 2320.00
Thousand
2400 2331 2500 2331 2700
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.20
percent
62.1 61.57 63.1 61.57 64
Wages 10113.00
PHP/Month
11500 11500 11500 12000 12500
Wages in Manufacturing 1650.06
Index Points
1770 1850 1800 1300 2020
Population 104.90
Million
107 106 107 106 109
Employment Rate 94.70
percent
93.8 94.59 94.2 94.59 94.3
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 4.50
percent
3.8 3.7 3.7 3.5 2.8
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50
percent
0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3
Consumer Price Index CPI 116.10
Index Points
115 116 117 119 124
Core Consumer Prices 150.90
Index Points
150 151 152 156 162
Core Inflation Rate 5.00
percent
3.3 3.4 3.5 4.37 3.7
GDP Deflator 182.62
Index Points
186 183 199 183 207
Producer Prices 132.80
Index Points
135 135 134 135 140
Producer Prices Change -0.90
percent
2 2 2 2 2
Food Inflation 5.90
percent
4.8 4 4.2 4.5 3.5
Export Prices 104.93
Price Index
109 110 115 105 119
CPI Housing Utilities 110.20
Index Points
109 111 111 113 118
CPI Transportation 103.30
Index Points
102 103 104 106 110
Import Prices 117.10
Price Index
118 120 121 116 128
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 3.25
percent
3.25 3.25 3.25 3.5 4
Money Supply M0 1052546.22
PHP Million
980000 994782 1000000 994611 1080000
Money Supply M1 3656396.95
PHP Million
3737852 3850986 3963495 4075648 5286670
Money Supply M2 10484059.17
PHP Million
9792193 10897096 11145306 11393033 14049012
Money Supply M3 10918724.99
PHP Million
10100043 10959646 10973448 10974711 10877858
Foreign Exchange Reserves 80060.00
USD Million
81100 81200 81300 80900 82000
Banks Balance Sheet 1117.20
PHP Billion
1170 1190 1250 1130 1430
Deposit Interest Rate 2.75
percent
2.75 2.75 2.75 3 3.5
Lending Rate 3.75
percent
3.75 3.75 3.75 4 4.5
Loans To Banks 217671.11
PHP Million
281000 276870 305000 275957 384000
Loans To Private Sector 6468810.94
PHP Million
6735452 6954128 6110000 7402030 7160000
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4601.30
PHP Billion
4770 4674 4840 4674 5090
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -2607850.00
USD Thousand
-2158000 -2516105 -3052000 -2596613 -2440000
Exports 5510000.00
USD Thousand
5780000 5322235 5508000 5300468 6290000
Imports 8118000.00
USD Thousand
7938000 7838339 8560000 7897081 8730000
Current Account -1323.55
USD Million
-80 -450 855 -443 589
Current Account to GDP -0.80
percent
1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3
External Debt 73097.87
USD Million
72000 72000 72000 73000 73500
Capital Flows 5.12
USD Million
10 13.41 13 3.36 16
Remittances 2359615.40
USD Thousand
2950000 2353420 2900000 2349287 3340000
Tourist Arrivals 732506.00
560000 558200 680000 550500 831000
Gold Reserves 196.40
Tonnes
196 196 199 196 205
Terrorism Index 7.13
7.1 7.19 7.5 7.33 7.4
Foreign Direct Investment 21571.10
PHP Million
27211 42951 173000 35707 197000
Crude Oil Production 15.00
BBL/D/1K
15 15 15 15 40
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 42.10
percent
41.4 41.4 41 40 39
Government Budget -2.20
percent of GDP
-3 -3 -3 -2.6 -2.2
Government Budget Value -110700.00
PHP Million
-31000 -44851 -82000 -17893 -87000
Government Spending 236740.19
PHP Million
284316 226070 218446 253312 248000
Government Revenues 202400.00
PHP Million
220000 213978 228000 239659 245000
Fiscal Expenditure 313100.00
PHP Million
251000 258829 310000 257552 332000
Military Expenditure 4507.80
USD Million
4800 4800 4800 5000 6200
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 39.50
Index Points
40 45.8 47 41.89 50
Industrial Production 12.80
percent
1.8 -2.94 9.5 -2.57 5.3
Capacity Utilization 84.21
percent
84.2 84.04 84.5 84.2 83.9
Changes in Inventories 26887.92
PHP Million
1701 -5221 -1434 -3506 -2772
Internet Speed 5450.74
KBps
6413 6506 6538 6572 5712
IP Addresses 1536948.00
IP
1572979 1568133 1564261 1557398 1461165
Total Vehicle Sales 9910.00
13200 10259 17785 10236 21450
Manufacturing Pmi 52.70
52.1 51.8 52.5 52.3 54.4
Ease of Doing Business 113.00
90 113 90 113 83
Corruption Index 34.00
Points
33 33 33 34 38
Corruption Rank 111.00
109 109 109 111 110
Competitiveness Index 4.35
Points
4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35
Competitiveness Rank 56.00
56 56 56 55 53
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 1.70
Index Points
8 11 12 8.54 7
Retail Sales Yoy 4.20
percent
4 3.66 3.3 3.35 4
Consumer Spending 1541280.00
PHP Million
1529217 1546890 1572717 1649170 1785490
Personal Savings 4477551.99
Million PHP
4536499 4623498 4709500 4794389 5658302
Bank Lending Rate 5.84
percent
6.03 6.03 6.03 6.28 6.78
Retail Sales Mom 0.20
percent
0.36 0.45 -0.2 0.34 0.1
Consumer Credit 299.06
PHP Billion
280 278 291 278 346
Gasoline Prices 1.03
USD/Liter
0.96 0.91 0.86 0.81 0.56
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Housing Index 10777.00
PHP/SQ. METRE
10500 10073 12800 10027 14000
Building Permits 33445.00
35620 35405 36200 35299 39900
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 33 33
Sales Tax Rate 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate 11.36
percent
11.36 11.36 11.36 11 11.36
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.67
percent
7.67 7.67 7.67 7.67 7.67
Social Security Rate For Employees 3.69
percent
3.69 3.69 3.69 3.69 3.69
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 244.42
mm
183 291 237 110 210
Temperature 25.79
celsius
27.47 26.95 25.98 25.59 27.07