Philippines - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Philippines including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Philippines economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.50 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.00 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 6.3 percent
Inflation Rate 4.00 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 2.8 percent
Interest Rate 3.00 3 3 3 3 4 percent
Balance of Trade -4016560.00 -2930000 -2158000 -1895340 -3052000 -2440000 USD Thousand
Government Debt to GDP 42.10 41.8 41.4 41 41 39 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 52.20
50.87 51.39 51.91 52.44 54.61
Stock Market 8612.44
points
8607 8356 8113 7878 6220
Government Bond 10y 6.71
percent
7.04 8.16 9.45 10.95 19.75
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.50
percent
1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.60
percent
6.4 6.4 6.5 6 6.5
GDP 304.90
USD Billion
315 315 315 315 330
GDP Constant Prices 2219148.00
PHP Million
2251253 2280916 2308463 2353759 2647181
Gross National Product 2656022.00
PHP Million
2660000 2690000 2755557 2750000 2950000
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 681596.63
PHP Million
682000 662000 640851 787000 926000
GDP per capita 2753.30
USD
2970 2970 2808 2970 3170
GDP per capita PPP 7236.50
USD
7910 7910 7427 7910 8400
GDP From Agriculture 179806.91
PHP Million
159600 147000 133443 186000 200000
GDP From Construction 226644.32
PHP Million
188300 244000 196855 250000 286000
GDP From Manufacturing 583093.19
PHP Million
513801 504000 468494 596000 664000
GDP From Mining 18340.28
PHP Million
18900 19800 17549 16500 16100
Gdp From Public Administration 92825.89
PHP Million
74607 95000 81670 89000 94000
Gdp From Services 1310106.00
PHP Million
1221554 1293341 1214127 1286092 1254129
GDP From Transport 63876.73
PHP Million
71800 80800 60463 71700 80500
GDP From Utilities 68547.51
PHP Million
61519 70367 77369 69000 74000
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.00
percent
5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 6.3
Employed Persons 41551.00
Thousand
40500 41000 41195 42300 43700
Unemployed Persons 2188.00
Thousand
2900 2700 2446 2500 2700
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.10
percent
61.8 62.1 60.89 63.1 64
Wages 8990.00
PHP/Month
8942 8975 9008 8949 10300
Wages in Manufacturing 1731.22
Index Points
1250 1770 1723 1770 2020
Population 103.90
Million
107 107 107 107 110
Employment Rate 95.00
percent
93.6 93.8 94.28 94.2 94.3
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 4.00
percent
3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 2.8
Inflation Rate Mom 1.00
percent
0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
Consumer Price Index CPI 152.70
Index Points
152 152 157 156 167
Core Consumer Prices 147.95
Index Points
148 148 153 150 155
Core Inflation Rate 3.90
percent
3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7
GDP Deflator 189.83
Index Points
186 186 186 199 207
Producer Prices 130.97
Index Points
140 143 130 146 158
Producer Prices Change -1.80
percent
1.5 2.9 3 2.3 2.8
Food Inflation 4.50
percent
3.5 3.8 4 4.2 3.5
Export Prices 109.15
Price Index
109 109 110 115 119
CPI Housing Utilities 135.10
Index Points
135 135 135 135 135
CPI Transportation 135.00
Index Points
136 136 137 141 148
Import Prices 116.93
Price Index
118 118 120 121 128
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 3.00
percent
3 3 3 3 4
Money Supply M0 1063042.66
PHP Million
980000 980000 1019012 1200000 1430000
Money Supply M1 3556885.69
PHP Million
3649569 3686295 3699811 3703943 3683619
Money Supply M2 10215773.10
PHP Million
9792193 9792193 10577670 10594145 10531754
Money Supply M3 10641733.94
PHP Million
10100043 10100043 11044656 11064122 11002742
Foreign Exchange Reserves 81200.00
USD Million
84500 86200 85872 89200 101000
Banks Balance Sheet 1115.00
PHP Billion
1170 1170 1190 1250 1430
Deposit Interest Rate 2.50
percent
2.75 2.75 3 3 3.5
Lending Rate 3.50
percent
3.75 3.75 4 4 4.5
Loans To Banks 243037.69
PHP Million
281000 281000 204713 305000 384000
Loans To Private Sector 6384185.75
PHP Million
6668063 6859759 6971797 6110000 7160000
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4601.30
PHP Billion
4770 4770 4465 4840 5090
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -4016560.00
USD Thousand
-2930000 -2158000 -1895340 -3052000 -2440000
Exports 4721110.00
USD Thousand
5730000 5780000 4691560 5508000 6290000
Imports 8737670.00
USD Thousand
8660000 7938000 8621187 8560000 8730000
Current Account 129.60
USD Million
-80 -80 111 855 589
Current Account to GDP 0.20
percent
1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3
External Debt 76621.97
USD Million
76449 76307 76165 76023 73811
Capital Flows 12.95
USD Million
8 10 8.69 13 16
Remittances 2741425.00
USD Thousand
2900000 2950000 2477829 2900000 3340000
Tourist Arrivals 613372.00
560000 560000 558200 680000 831000
Gold Reserves 196.36
Tonnes
196 196 196 199 205
Terrorism Index 7.13
6.92 6.99 7.06 7.5 7.4
Foreign Direct Investment 43018.30
PHP Million
30694 25944 39871 173000 197000
Crude Oil Production 15.00
BBL/D/1K
15.81 15.79 15.77 31 40
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 42.10
percent
41.8 41.4 41 41 39
Government Budget -2.40
percent of GDP
-2.8 -2.8 -2.29 -2.8 -2.7
Government Budget Value -8600.00
PHP Million
-74000 -31000 -42100 -82000 -87000
Government Spending 214325.64
PHP Million
212000 267000 227821 191000 212000
Government Revenues 243492.00
PHP Million
200000 220000 217930 228000 245000
Fiscal Expenditure 252115.00
PHP Million
254000 251000 234651 310000 332000
Military Expenditure 3989.80
USD Million
5200 5200 3754 5200 6200
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 43.30
Index Points
43 45 34.55 47 50
Industrial Production -10.30
percent
3.2 4.8 4.05 9.5 5.3
Capacity Utilization 83.95
percent
83.5 83.5 83.43 83.5 83.9
Changes in Inventories 12179.51
PHP Million
-631 -4131 -8699 6430 -743
Internet Speed 5450.74
KBps
6251 6413 6506 6538 6160
IP Addresses 1536948.00
IP
1574649 1572979 1568133 1564261 1497274
Total Vehicle Sales 14182.00
13200 13200 12949 17785 21450
Manufacturing Pmi 51.70
51.9 51.9 53.84 52.5 54.4
Ease of Doing Business 113.00
90 90 112 90 83
Corruption Index 35.00
Points
43 43 32 43 51
Corruption Rank 101.00
82 82 106 82 69
Competitiveness Index 4.35
Points
4.32 4.32 4.32 4.32 4.14
Competitiveness Rank 56.00
63 63 63 39.7 37
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 9.50
Index Points
8.2 6.7 3.5 6 7
Retail Sales Yoy 2.50
percent
3.8 4 5.11 3.3 4
Consumer Spending 1522475.00
PHP Million
1520000 1570000 1580712 1610000 1780000
Personal Savings 4406418.11
Million PHP
4470869 4493920 4498592 4495520 4399897
Bank Lending Rate 5.61
percent
5.7 5.9 7.19 5.8 6.2
Retail Sales Mom 0.60
percent
0.54 0.56 0.56 -0.2 0.1
Consumer Credit 272.23
PHP Billion
272 280 300 291 346
Gasoline Prices 1.00
USD/Liter
1 1 0.99 1 1.2
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Housing Index 9579.00
PHP/SQ. METRE
10000 10500 9750 12800 14000
Building Permits 36076.00
45620 45620 34759 39200 43900
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 31
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
32 32 32 32 32
Sales Tax Rate 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate 11.36
percent
11 11 11 11.36 11.36
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.67
percent
7.54 7.54 7.54 7.67 7.67
Social Security Rate For Employees 3.69
percent
3.63 3.63 3.63 3.69 3.69
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 244.42
mm
109 183 291 237 210
Temperature 25.79
celsius
25.54 27.47 26.95 25.98 27.07