The Standard Bank Mozambique PMI decreased to 37.1 in April 2020 from 49.9 in the previous month, pointing to the second straight month of contraction in private activity and the lowest reading on record since the series began in April 2015, amid the escalation of the coronavirus pandemic. Output, new orders and the stock of purchases fell to record lows, signaling a severe reduction in activity, amid government restrictions on movements. At the same time, employment fell for the first time in a year-and-a-half but the reduction was only modest. Meanwhile, backlogs declined for the first time since January, linked to weaker incoming orders. On the price front, the rate of inflation softened driven by lower in both raw material prices and salaries. Meanwhile, output charges rose for the third month in a row, albeit only marginally. Finally, despite lower expectations, sentiment remained positive.
Composite Pmi in Mozambique is expected to be 22.00 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Composite Pmi in Mozambique to stand at 51.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Mozambique Standard Bank PMI is projected to trend around 52.00 points in 2021 and 52.30 points in 2022, according to our econometric models.