The Standard Bank Mozambique PMI inched down to 51.2 in May of 2021 from 51.3 a month earlier, signaling a recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The latest reading marked the second straight of expansion in the private sector, as increases in both output and new orders, albeit at slightly weaker paces compared to the initial uplifts in April. At the same time, employment increased for the first time in four months as firms looked to expand their capacity in anticipation of a strong economic recovery, with backlogs of work fell, after a renewed increase was recorded in April. At the same time, purchasing activity increased sharply for the second month in a row. On the price front, input costs inflation eased to a four-month low, while selling prices continued to increase, albeit only slightly. Finally, business sentiment strengthened to the highest since December 2019, due to forecasts of higher sales and business investment. source: Markit Economics
Composite PMI in Mozambique is expected to be 48.00 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Composite PMI in Mozambique to stand at 49.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Mozambique Standard Bank PMI is projected to trend around 51.00 points in 2022 and 52.00 points in 2023, according to our econometric models.
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Mozambique Standard Bank PMI
The Standard Bank Mozambique PMI™ is compiled by IHS Markit from responses to questionnaires sent to purchasing managers in a panel of around 400 private sector companies. The panel is stratified by detailed sector and company workforce size, based on contributions to GDP. The sectors covered by the survey include agriculture, mining, manufacturing, construction, wholesale, retail and services. Survey responses are collected in the second half of each month and indicate the direction of change compared to the previous month. A diffusion index is calculated for each survey variable. The index is the sum of the percentage of ‘higher’ responses and half the percentage of ‘unchanged’ responses. The indices vary between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating an overall increase compared to the previous month, and below 50 an overall decrease. The indices are then seasonally adjusted. The headline figure is the Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI). The PMI is a weighted average of the following five indices: New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%) and Stocks of Purchases (10%). For the PMI calculation the Suppliers’ Delivery Times Index is inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction to the other indices.