Mexico Inflation Rate Rises More Than Expected

Mexico's annual inflation rate eased to 3.37% in June 2026 from 3.94% in May, the lowest reading since December 2020. The figure came in slightly below market expectations of 3.52% and remained within the Bank of Mexico's target tolerance range of one percentage point away from 3%. The strongest price increases were recorded in alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and narcotics (7.66%), insurance and financial services (6.74%), restaurants and lodging (6.63%), educational services (5.93%), healthcare (4.84%), and recreation, sport, and culture (3.73%). Energy inflation remained relatively subdued at 2.97% as oil prices had returned to pre-conflict levels following easing geopolitical tensions. Transport prices rose 3.36%, utilities increased 3.34%, and food prices advanced 1.66%. Meanwhile, core inflation eased to 4.03%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.27%, following a 0.20% decline in May.

The annual inflation rate in Mexico eased to 3.94% in the second half of May of 2026 from 4.45% in the corresponding period of the previous month, the lowest in four months. It was slightly under market expectations of 4.02%, marking the return to the Bank of Mexico's tolerance band of one percentage point away from 3%. Inflation was muted for energy (3.27%) despite the surge in oil, natural gas, and coal prices globally since the outbreak of war in the Middle East, largely due heavy fuel tax credits and price caps implemented by the Mexican government. Meanwhile, inflation was also tame for core goods (3.78%) as non-food core goods (2.84%) was lower than core food goods (5.13%). In turn, inflation for services was higher (4.57%). From the previous month, the Mexican CPI fell by 0.2%, the first decline in two years, as the energy subsidies were expanded and drove energy prices to ease from the initial reaction to the war.

Mexico's annual inflation rate eased to 4.45% in April 2026 from 4.59% in March, which was the steepest since August 2024. Figures came marginally below analysts' forecasts of 4.50%. Prices slowed down in several CPI categories, including food & non-alcoholic beverages (6.36% vs 6.91% in March); alcoholic beverages & tobacco (7.97% vs 8.05%); housing & utilities (3.08% vs 3.13%); health (5.25% vs 5.43%); restaurants & hotels (6.89% vs 7.16%) and miscellaneous goods & services (4.81% vs 5.52%). On the other hand, transportation prices rose faster (3.14% vs 2.62%), amid higher fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict. The core inflation rate, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices, fell to 4.26% in April from 4.45% in March, the lowest in 8 months and slightly below forecasts of 4.27%. On a monthly basis, the CPI went up by 0.2%, down from a 0.86% rise in March and compared to the market consensus of a 0.25% increase.