Indonesian Shares Dip Below 5,000 Mark Ahead of GDP Data

Indonesia’s IDX Composite plunged 91 points, or 1.8%, to 4,939 in Friday morning trade, reversing gains from the prior two sessions after a tech rout on Wall Street overnight amid concerns about the profitability of heavy AI investment after the U.S. midterms. Local markets are heading into a second straight weekly fall, down 2.4% so far, and hovering near a six-year low, reflecting fiscal concerns over higher oil prices and the Prabowo administration’s hefty spending commitments, continued foreign capital outflows, and rupiah volatility. All major sectors slid, led by basic materials, infrastructure, energy, and cyclicals. Japfa Comfeed dipped 6.9%, followed by Barito Pacific (-6.6%) and Darma Henwa (-6.1%). Still, losses were partly limited by stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP growth, reinforcing optimism that the 2026 growth target of around 5.4% remains within reach. Meanwhile, authorities enacted sanctions over alleged stock market violations after MSCI warned of a possible downgrade.

Indonesian shares surged 114 points, or 2.3%, to 5,036 in early trading Thursday, extending prior gains as bargain hunters set in after markets fell to a six-year low earlier this week. An overnight rally on Wall Street also boosted sentiment amid sharply lower oil prices and reduced uncertainty following Democrats’ U.S. midterm wins. Locally, sentiment improved after regulators announced new sanctions for alleged stock market violations as part of reforms following MSCI’s warning of a potential market downgrade. All major sectors strengthened, led by basic materials, industrials, and non-cyclicals. Notable gainers included Merdeka Copper Gold (12%), Archi Indonesia (10.3%), and Telkom (6.6%). However, the rally was capped by caution ahead of Q3 GDP data due later today, with growth expected to slow further amid mounting economic headwinds. Meanwhile, the deployment of 20,000 troops across Jakarta following the arrest of three senior police officers added to political tensions.

Indonesian stocks fell 46 points, or 0.9%, to below the 5,000 mark in Wednesday morning trading, extending prior losses and hitting their lowest since early September 2020. Sentiment deteriorated ahead of Q3 GDP data due Thursday, with growth expected to slow further yoy amid elevated interest rates and persistent price pressures. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara projected 2026 growth of 5.4%–5.5%, below previous forecast of 5.6%–6%. Political tensions also intensified after authorities detained three senior police figures, including former chief Listyo Sigit, over alleged illegal wiretapping targeting President Prabowo and other prominent figures. Still, Bank Indonesia's remarks that currency interventions had been effective in supporting the rupiah helped cap losses. Most sectors slipped, led by basic materials, consumer cyclicals, and energy. Major losers included Barito Pacific (-6.7%), Hartadinata Abadi (-5.9%), Medco Energi (-3.1%), and Astra Intl. (-1.5%).