Weakness in Indonesian Equities Persist as New Month Begins

Indonesian stocks slipped 16 points, or 0.3%, to 6,056 in Thursday morning trade, the first session of October, marking a sixth straight decline. Investors stayed cautious ahead of key domestic releases later today, including August trade and September inflation. July saw a modest trade surplus that ended two months of deficits, but August inflation accelerated as food prices rose sharply under El Niño’s impact. Rising global oil prices amid U.S.–Iran tensions also stoked fears of tighter monetary policy for longer, including in Indonesia. Still, losses were limited by a rebound in factory activity, with September’s S&P Manufacturing PMI climbing to a seven-month high on stronger output, new orders, and exports. Sectoral weakness in tech, industry, and healthcare outweighed gains in energy, cyclicals, and financials. Gojek Tokopedia plunged 12.5%, extending its recent slump, while United Tractors (-4.2%), AKR Corp. (-1.4%), and Mitra Adiperkasa (-1.0%) also dragged the index lower.

Indonesia’s IDX Composite climbed 63 points, or 1.0%, to 6,184 in early Wednesday trade, halting weakness in the prior four sessions as U.S. stock futures firmed ahead of a key inflation print that could shape the Fed’s rate path. Momentum was also lifted by stronger activity in top trading partner China, as manufacturing and services accelerated in September, particularly in tech and consumer industries. Locally, Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara told lawmakers the state budget was designed with prudence and credibility to buffer the economy against persistent global uncertainty, further bolstering sentiment. Gains were broad-based, led by industrials, basic materials, energy, and infrastructure. Standouts included Rukun Raharja (6.1%), Sentul City (5.5%), and United Tractors (5.4%). Despite the upturn, the market is on track for its first monthly drop in three months, down about 5.4% so far, weighed by inflation concerns, rupiah weakness, and the fiscal strain of higher oil prices.

Indonesian shares tumbled 94 points, or 1.3%, to 6,064 in Tuesday morning trade, extending declines for a fourth session to their lowest level since late July. Sentiment weakened as U.S. stock futures fell after Wall Street’s overnight drop, with Treasury yields hovering at multiyear highs amid renewed Middle East tensions that stoked inflation fears and prospects of further rate hikes. Locally, higher oil prices weighed on fiscal outlook and risk appetite, compounded by new trading rules allowing shares on regular and cash markets to fall to as low as IDR 1 under broader exchange reforms. Caution also lingered ahead of August trade and September inflation data due later this week. In key trading partner China, September PMI readings from both official sources and private surveys also loom. All sectors retreated, led by tech, cyclicals, transport, and energy. Major laggards included Gojek Tokopedia (-14.0%), Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (-7.1%), Adaro Andalan (-6.5%), and Darma Henwa (-5.1%).