Indonesia Shares Extend Strength Despite Renewed Geopolitical Tensions

Indonesian stocks rose 40 points or 0.7% to 5,962 on Monday morning, marking the second straight session of gains amid strength in cyclicals, infrastructure, basic materials, and energy. Sentiment was buoyed by reports of resilient investment momentum across strategic sectors in special economic zones. Meanwhile, fiscal stability was underscored by a primary balance surplus of IDR 85.1 trillion in H1 2026, keeping the budget comfortably within prudent limits. However, upside was tempered as U.S. equity futures slumped on renewed Middle East tensions, adding caution ahead of earnings season. Caution also emerged ahead of key data later this week from the main trading partner, China, including the June trade balance and Q2 GDP. Locally, governance risks remained in focus as anti-corruption enforcement intensified. Among early standouts were Barito Pacific (4.3%), ESSA Industries (3.5%), Pertamina Geothermal Energy 1.5%), and United Tractors (1.4%).

Indonesia’s IDX Composite added 18 points, or 0.3%, to 5,932 in early Friday trade, extending momentum from the prior session as Wall Street’s rebound overnight in chip stocks spilled over. Meanwhile, the IMF maintained its April projection for Indonesia’s economy to grow 5% in 2026, even as global uncertainty lingers. On local data, June car sales rose 12% yoy, marking a third consecutive monthly rise and lifting first-half sales 15.9% from a year earlier. Yet optimism was tempered by May retail data, which showed the steepest annual drop in three years as higher non-subsidized fuel prices weighed on consumer spending. Mining services also struggled in H1 2026, pressured by reduced production quotas under current work plans, with contractors awaiting revisions. Still, the market is on track for its first weekly gain in three weeks, up about 0.7% so far. Leading movers included Pertamina Geothermal Energy (3.7%), Vale Indonesia (2.8%), Darma Henwa (2.4%), and Aneka Tambang (2.1%).

Indonesian equities firmed modestly on Thursday morning, with the IDX Composite Index adding 14 points or 0.2% to 5,883, clawing back steep losses from the prior session. The rebound tracked stronger U.S. futures after Wall Street closed mostly lower overnight, weighed by renewed U.S.–Iran tensions and higher oil prices. Locally, sentiment was lifted by an uptick in June forex reserves and quicker state budget execution in H1 2026. In top trading partner China, headline inflation eased to 1.1% in June, undershooting forecasts as food costs fell further. However, gains in Jakarta were capped by concerns over a possible downgrade to frontier-market status in 2027, flagged by S&P Dow Jones Indices. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment slipped for a second month in June, hitting its weakest since last September. Basic materials, energy, transport, and industry led strength, with notable movers from ESSA Industries (4.6%), Amman Mineral Intl. (3.0%), Bumi Resources (2.2%), and Medco Energi (1.3%).